luckyhelper

Is there a major trend reversal ahead?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Pivot point is at 8384. Below the Pivot point , there is a bearish scenario, above a bullish one. Fluctuating around Pivot point means an undecided scenario and a sideways movement.

First, we will have a look at the calculated target of the major downtrend, which started on December 17, 2017. For this reason, we will look back to my idea from February 5.


There, I calculated the target 2304 for the current major downtrend. This target will be reached in three steps with intermediate targets at 5511 and 3230. We should keep this in mind while reading the rest of today’s idea.

Bitcoin hit the USD 9000 target! For the first time since December 17, 2017, an upmove reached its target. There is obviously a lot of power in this still ongoing upward movement. Will BTCUSD be able to break the brown dashed trendline and end the major downtrend? In the comment below, we will have a closer look to this crucial area inside the blue circle.

Comment: In this chart, we look inside in the above-mentioned blue circle. We will have a closer look what will happen inside the red circle. We see that Bitcoin reached the USD 9000 target, but did not yet build a trend reversal pattern.

Just a little bit above the blue target line, there is resistance R1 at USD 9044.

Both lines are crossed by the descending brown, dashed trendline. The major downtrend remains effective, if the price of Bitcoin stays below this brown, dashed trendline. A break of this brown, dashed trendline would end the major downtrend and establish either a new uptrend or a sideways movement.

This strong triple resistance will not be easy to break. I expect a heavy battle Bulls against Bears at this level. The outcome is open, even if I think that the Bears will win at the end and Bitcoin’s price will head South for reaching the three targets.
Comment: This one minunte candle chart shows that the price touched all three resitances and was immediately sent back South. However, we cannot yet expect that this was the whole battle. I expect BTCUSD testing the three resistance levels at least one more time.
Comment: Bitcoin is approaching the blue target line at $8506. What will happen there?
Another test of the brown dashed trendline is possible.
Comment: After touching the brown, dashed trendline, Bitcoin moved down to the target 8506. Will break that blue target line or will move upwards and retest the brown, dashed trendline? Soon, we will know.
Comment: The price of Bitcoin touched the target line at 8506 and bounced upwards. Will this upmove just be for a small top before dropping further towards 5511 or will it test the brown dashed trendline once more?
Comment: Bitcoin just drew a small top and went South again. Right now, it is heading further down. The target of this down move is $7704.
Comment: In this chart, we can see the price fluctuating around Pivot point. Pivot point and the corresponding supports and resistance levels are strong and powerful barriers. Often, the price is fluctuating around such a level or it is bounced. The price needs some momentum in its movement for crossing such a level of the Pivot point system.
Comment: Why is the Pivot point system precise? Why is it so useful? There is simply one reason: Because it is widespread and used by many traders, chartists and analysts around the globe. If you want to learn more about Pivot points, just click the link below and watch the video tutorial.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/piv...
This is better:
Reply
luckyhelper venturetrade
@venturetrade, I do not understand your chart. What are the red lines for? Are these Eliott waves? Please provide some explanations.
Reply
venturetrade luckyhelper
@luckyhelper, No, just trend lines that i am tracking. actually the dashed blue line needs to be shifted down as the market shifted.
+1 Reply
venturetrade venturetrade
@venturetrade, but i must admit bulls got the momentum going for them now. they are testing bears, not vice versa.
+1 Reply
luckyhelper venturetrade
@venturetrade, yes, bulls are testing bears. However, I still think that Bitcoin has not yet found stable ground. The uppper long-term trendline has to be sustainably crossed for bringing the downtrend to an end. I expect a bull trap with a false breakout to happen next. I stay on the sideline. No trading right now.
Reply
luckyhelper venturetrade
@venturetrade, thank you for explaining.
Reply
venturetrade luckyhelper
@luckyhelper, we got this falling wedge formation too.
+1 Reply
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