To start this off i would like to clarify that i am a believer in the long term story of bitcoin and do believe it will soon break to new highs. That being said, i think it has come a bit too far, too fast. To get an idea of when we might pull back and how far i decided to take a look at our 2014 bitcoin rally. In the 2014 bitcoin rally bitcoin, one of the major corrections took place when we hit the 61.8 fib retracement. This is a powerful fib level and it the first level where institutional investors will consider reloading their short positions. That being said we are quickly approaching the 61.8 fib (around $13300) of this current rally and could expect a similar pullback. During the 2014 rally, once we hit the 61.8, we had a price pullback of 38% which corresponded to a 50% retrace of that rally. A 38% pullback and 50% retrace of our current rally would correspond to a price drop into the 8250 area. Other things that support a much needed pullback is that the NVT (a great predictor of price pullbacks) has been in the red for quite some time and is also in divergence. The RSI is also currently in divergence ( price went to new highs , RSI did not) . This supports the idea that we may be in need of a serious pullback. I also noticed that in the 2014 rally there were no signs of divergence on the daily chart and we still experienced a 38% pullback. Given the fact that a few of our indicators are in divergence, I think this pull back might be a bit bigger this time around. All of this being said i believe in the longterm story of bitcoin, so i will be looking to add to my position in bitcoin and other crypto's at 8250 and below.
Comment:
Didn't notice the random target and stop on the second chart. Don't mind that