For most of this calendar year, i have been watching developing price action in comparisons to the 2014-15 BTC charts.
from May:
August:
Nov 6:
Nov 23:
More specifically, I have been focusing on
A: price interaction with its 50-week SMA
B: lengths of time it takes from losing 50-week SMA to low point, and length until touches it again
and more recently:
C: length of time from massive failed green wick, to the low point..
***
If we look at the failed wick that is present in both charts, and measure the length of time until it hit its lowest price:
2014/15: was 62 days and 64.95%
current: was 61 days and 58.72% (as of 3215.2 finex low on dec 15)
furthermore, if we look at the length of time from last time it interacted with its 50wk MA to its low was 145 days in 2014/15 and 144 days this time around:
We can also note that the % drop in 2014/15 was -85.83% while so far this time around hit -83.84%
Now, over the last several days we have seen bulls weakening, are well from 4200 highs, and does not look like the pattern that played out in 2014/15 will play out the same way after the low. in 2014/15 we saw prices rally almost 90% in just 12 days. It rallied almost to its 50% fib retrace level of the failed wick high to low.
This time around, our high for the moment came 9 days and 'just' 36.35% from its low point. To reach a similar % bounce and to approach its 50% retrace level (of same failed wick, to low) would put prices around 5500 or so. For now, it does not seem very likely that bulls can push us up anywhere near that level.
We can also see that HOW prices reached its lows are quite different. In 2014/15 the low point came after one last big leg down and formed a quick V bottom.
This time around, our low point was marked not by a big 'whoosh; but a gradual decline in the days leading up to the low point. (The majority of price declines came in the last 2 weeks of November)
While I have previously stated that 3000-3200 was next major support should 6000 fail, I have to admit that IN the moment of the lows...it did not feel like the lows. I did not get the sense of any sort of capitulation. The bounce also was not instant (V-bottom) and came several days after the lowest low.
few things to remember:
* the comparisons from 2014-15 is from a technical pov only; and does not factor in the vast fundamental differences between then and now.
* just because prices hit its lowest low...does not equal a bull market. In 2014/15, it took almost another 800 days from its lowest price to previous ATH levels around 1200.
* in 2014/15, after marking the low, we went up and tested its 50wk MA roughly 8 months later. 1 month after THAT, we retested the lows (and actually MADE a new lows be several points) Which, if projected onto current chart, would put us around July of 2019.
********
While this chart somewhat focuses more on the last few months of declining prices leading up to its low point; I am putting together another chart that zooms out a bit and looks at the entirety of 2014/15 in comparisons to current market by more broadly aligning price/time changes from 14/15 to now.
Until then, please feel free to comment, and stay safe!
Happy Trading
@PMtrading20
from May:
August:
Nov 6:
More specifically, I have been focusing on
A: price interaction with its 50-week SMA
B: lengths of time it takes from losing 50-week SMA to low point, and length until touches it again
and more recently:
C: length of time from massive failed green wick, to the low point..
***
If we look at the failed wick that is present in both charts, and measure the length of time until it hit its lowest price:
2014/15: was 62 days and 64.95%
current: was 61 days and 58.72% (as of 3215.2 finex low on dec 15)
furthermore, if we look at the length of time from last time it interacted with its 50wk MA to its low was 145 days in 2014/15 and 144 days this time around:
We can also note that the % drop in 2014/15 was -85.83% while so far this time around hit -83.84%
Now, over the last several days we have seen bulls weakening, are well from 4200 highs, and does not look like the pattern that played out in 2014/15 will play out the same way after the low. in 2014/15 we saw prices rally almost 90% in just 12 days. It rallied almost to its 50% fib retrace level of the failed wick high to low.
This time around, our high for the moment came 9 days and 'just' 36.35% from its low point. To reach a similar % bounce and to approach its 50% retrace level (of same failed wick, to low) would put prices around 5500 or so. For now, it does not seem very likely that bulls can push us up anywhere near that level.
We can also see that HOW prices reached its lows are quite different. In 2014/15 the low point came after one last big leg down and formed a quick V bottom.
This time around, our low point was marked not by a big 'whoosh; but a gradual decline in the days leading up to the low point. (The majority of price declines came in the last 2 weeks of November)
While I have previously stated that 3000-3200 was next major support should 6000 fail, I have to admit that IN the moment of the lows...it did not feel like the lows. I did not get the sense of any sort of capitulation. The bounce also was not instant (V-bottom) and came several days after the lowest low.
few things to remember:
* the comparisons from 2014-15 is from a technical pov only; and does not factor in the vast fundamental differences between then and now.
* just because prices hit its lowest low...does not equal a bull market. In 2014/15, it took almost another 800 days from its lowest price to previous ATH levels around 1200.
* in 2014/15, after marking the low, we went up and tested its 50wk MA roughly 8 months later. 1 month after THAT, we retested the lows (and actually MADE a new lows be several points) Which, if projected onto current chart, would put us around July of 2019.
********
While this chart somewhat focuses more on the last few months of declining prices leading up to its low point; I am putting together another chart that zooms out a bit and looks at the entirety of 2014/15 in comparisons to current market by more broadly aligning price/time changes from 14/15 to now.
Until then, please feel free to comment, and stay safe!
Happy Trading
@PMtrading20