BITCOIN MAY FALL TO 10K IN Q4 2022

This is a follow up to my previous idea
I posted an idea a few months ago about how BTC likely won't go any higher than 200 DMA, and so far it has been following my outlook very closely.


Bitcoin bearish outlook using 2018 data.

I have been closely observing 2018 bear crypto bear market and have been studying it since last year.
There are quite a lot of similarities between 2022 bear market and the 2018 bear market. If you look at the charts, some of these are quite obvious such as

- Blow off top in Q4 2017/2021
- A little rally in spring 2018/2022
- Couple red months in a row in Q2/Q3 2018/2022
- Dead cat bounce in summer, green monthly candle in 2018/2022

So now we will look at what the BTC price action may look like if it continues to follow 2018.

- The next couple months, like Q4 2018, would see the bottom of this bear market and have prices get to levels that could take many people by surprise.
- November/December 2018 saw the market bottom out and gave a great opportunity of a life time, this may be the case again.
- Also there are more factors here than just following 2018, such as:
- More interest rate hikes
- Negative GDP
- Quantitative tightening
- Inflation continuing to get worse with soaring prices
- Another possible covid variant
- More countries have economic collapses
- Gigantic stock market crash, perhaps as much as 50% as per Michael Burry's outlook
- Traders and retail choosing to cash out to pay their loans to avoid higher interests, or to afford basic needs with higher prices
- People losing their jobs and more getting laid, having to take out their investments to support their families

I have only charted upto Jan 2024, simply because it may be a bit harder to predict what happens after. In 2020 we got the covid crash, odds of another unpredictable global pandemic in 2024 are very slim.
Also, the fed has mentioned that they could possibly start printing again as early as 2024, which also happens to be very close to the Bitcoin halving.
And since we are making this based on past BTC trends, the halving always happens to slowly kick off the next bull market.

To sum up:
A) Bitcoin may fall as low as sub $10,000 in Q4
B) Mini bull market in first half of 2023, similar to 2019
C) Resume bear market in second half of 2023, similar to 2019
D) Getting to end the bear market in early 2024 and starting the next big bull market, similar to 2020

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