Bitcoin extra update, Comparing previous Rallies, Part 2

My previous analysis:

1) The orange one is the most bullish version. This means the bull flag we are in at the moment, has to stay intact. So maybe a max drop to like 5580 and then completing the bull flag .
2) The blue one is the shake out move. Seeing a big violent dump, trigger stops of long positions to fuel a dump, turning sentiment to bearish again. Then after a small bear trap at the low, turning the market around again and continuing the rally.
3) The green one, which is less likely because we have a clear higher high, but nonetheless it is a shape we see more often also in the normal markets.


So the orange version is in play now. It dropped a bit more than i expected with a quick dump that happened in seconds. But eventually it went up again like nothing was wrong. Now when looking back at the previous 2 rallies, we can see it's likely that we are in the yellow circle now. This means that we need to stay above the 5700ish. Yesterday we had the Binance hack news, the market dumped but it's already back up like nothing is wrong. Just like with the Bitfinex issue a few weeks ago. The market clearly is not impressed by all this. There is just no other conclusion we can make here. Like a group of whales who don't give a F about anything, they just want to move this market up against all basic TA signs. Maybe it's even the same people who pushed the market up back at 4000 to the 5K. Already a huge profit so more than enough ammunition to risk supporting the price here and squeezing it up in the 6K zone and cashing out there. If this theory is right, we should expect that if they fail and the market starts to drop, that they might cave in and dump it all and see one hell of a dump. I think this won't happen until the 4800/5100 breaks.


Now a big difference now and those 2 rallies, alt coins were much stronger and growing during these consolidation phases. This time, alts have been very weak compared to Bitcoin , while outperforming Bitcoin with the previous 2 rallies. That i why i think this market will dump again eventually, but for now i still think we will see another rally before that happens. Think it's still too soon for that.

Nothing has changed here yet.

We can see the volume on the right. To give an impression, we can see the circled volume a week ago was not enough to break the buyers. So we should assume now, that we need a bigger sell volume candle before we think this rally is already over

Also nothing has changed here. Yesterday's Binance hack dump was on it's way for a big volume candle, but it stopped on the way.


Anyway, it looks like these previous rally road maps are still in play. Think yesterday's dump was not expected, since it got supported at 5650ish, i think we can say that for this 'fractal' to stay in play, the yellow zone that is, we should not drop below this level anymore. think actually not even below the 5700ish.




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Previous analysis:

Comment:

For all the indicator people, i did not check it myself, but i am quite sure there are sell signals and bearish divergence all over the place now. Not to get right or wrong here, i don't care about that. But for the ones who do use those tools and only look at those things, please compare the indicators during those 2 rallies. But be objective and your welcome to share your opinion here and i will give my feedback on it.

Comment:

Just a lot of resistance here, but the bulls just keep on pushing, just keep trying to push it up. Just posted a chart in my channel, something i can't show here unfortunately, but that one shows it's the Bitmex whales doing all of this.

Anyway, the small triangle has a target around 6150/6200. Seems to be a small support around 6020 and the next one around 5960. The big triangle on the left gives a target around 6200/6400. Difficult to pinpoint the start of it.

A correction can happen at any moment, these are dangerous grounds now. It's likely to see profit taking as soon as it looses some ground, like this small triangle for example. These spots are difficult to day trade, because we can see some crazy wicks happening. If you missed the whole rally, best to just keep watching IMO and wait. There will come a correction at some point, buying here is asking for troubles.

Comment:

Some selling pressure now, but we can see the 5960 held earlier today and now several times as well. So think if it breaks, we might be headed to those green levels on the right. But so far, looks like it doesn't want to break this support. But no real bounce yet.

Comment:

Back home now, tough one. When zooming in, volume does show it a little bit on the right. Also broke up from the wedge, nothing really special, can easily be a false breakout and drop back in as well. The one the left, its position at such a high, is a bit typical for a wedge. But i showed 2 targets yesterday, around 6200 up to 6400. If we would be around 6250/6300, it would be more likely because of that.

A quick drop below 6050/40 would be a first confirmation. But for a real wedge, volume needs to be bigger at the drop

Comment:

Hmmm, seems they just don't want to let it drop. The longer this takes, bigger the odds for another push up. It's just not use fighting it. They destroyed bears many times the past weeks, getting all the magical TA tools out of the closet that say why it should drop. Well, they clearly don't really care, just does whatever it wants.

Anyway, think if they can hold it above the 6100ish, likely to see another push. I think at least a temp high is closing in, but could also be at 6250/6350. On the right we can see, how the past few hours has possibly been turned into a bul flag.

if the 6080/60 breaks with a quick candle, so a fast drop, than it will become more likely to see an even bigger drop. Maybe even 5700 up to 5900.

Comment:

New Bitcoin analysis: