- We have dropped to the 4200 level on Coinbase as predicted in one of the scenarios of the previous macro analysis.
- We also had a spike fakeout upwards on expiration day due to Tether FUD - described as a possible violent move in the previous analysis.
A Recap of key recent events:
- Tether FUD (dropped to 0.85$) caused a major fakeout spike on Bitcoin
- The 6K Bitcoin Wall has fallen as expected. RIP King Leonidas and the 300 brave whales that fought alongside him, all presumed dead heroes. Praise the King!
- BAKKT launch is moved from Dec 12 to Jan 24 2019
- SEC deadline for VanEck decision is now Dec 29 but will likely be postponed till Feb 2019
- BCH fork and civil war of the and SV chains have caused a major Bitcoin drop
- World's First ( ETP , physically backed by BTC ) is approved: Bitcoin $HODL, will begin trading on Switzerland’s Six Swiss Exchange beginning next week
the index includes: BTC , ETH, XRP, LTC and BCH and is managed by VanEck subsidiary
On a chart there are:
- 3 EW counts: red, green, blue, and a 4th orange subwave count. Black subwave count is common for all.
- 3 down channels: yellow, green and blue
- 3 pitchforks: green, blue and orange
- 3 major support/demand zones: pink, green and blue
Bitcoin was moving sideways on top of a major pink and has dropped because of a confluence:
- ADCDE triangle (yellow) top side breakout failure (E)
- touched/failed to break the Blue Pitchfork's top band
- on the news of a BCH hard fork and upcoming civil war of the chains
- on CBOE expiration date
Price has stopped at 4200 because of a confluence:
- top of a major green with a quick dip to its and bounce back to top
- Orange Pitchfork's top band
- fib level confluence
- BCH fork has won
1. NO Bull Run This Year (till Spring 2019):
- both the BAKKT launch and the approval are postponed.
There are no fundamental reasons for the price to go up unless some unexpected major event happens (i.e. surprise early approval).
The institutions will not buy an asset without proper security, ensurance and regulation with clear established rules.
The average bitcoin investors either HODL or expect the price to go down and won't buy.
There will be price manipulations, of course, but not a bull run.
- professional traders take profit and exit before Thanksgiving/Christmas. Expect a low sideways market or further decline/ drop to new ATL .
- We'll see how the Switzerland ETP performs next week but don't expect a lot - they are just testing waters .
2. We have dropped to unimaginable 6 on D1. And there was no substantial bounce! We also had a major divergence on H4.
The indicators are broken/useless in these market conditions. Shorts >> Longs. Still no squeeze. Nothing. No liquidity, no sellers.
There are 3 scenarios:
1. a ranging sideways market between 4-5K
2. a drop to 3K (next major top, green bottom, pitchfork's support line, fib confluence)
3. a grinding uptrend to max 5500 this year and then 6800 at BAKKT launch, decline afterwards
- violent moves on the expiration dates.
- more Tether FUD related fakeout spikes in Bitcoin . They can't pump, they can only drop Tether even more to get some shorts liquidated.
Bitcoin is in a yellow , just bounced from its bottom. It will move sideways for a while but when it touches/fails to break:
- 5K psychological level
- supply line (purple)
- 5500 bottom of the pink (now supply resistance)
- top band of the yellow channel
the price will bounce down and drop into a larger green , make a new bottom if 4K support doesn't hold.
And this new green channel has a bottom band crossing at 3K.
Blue demand channel is defined by 2 bottoms and 1 top. It needs readjustment for the top band if the current bottom doesn't hold and price drops further.
Yellow/Green supply channels are defined by 2 tops and 1 bottom. They don't need readjustment.
If the current 4200 bottom holds, we will continue in a blue channel with a max price for the year 7900 (blue channel crossing the larger pink top) but chances of reaching that price are slim, that's why I predict only max 5500.
There are 4 counts:
1) (WXYXZ) (red) ( , then )
This count has 2nd X at 6800 and Z at 3K. Then a bull run should start.
a drop to 3K is possible before X starts
triangle in Z and the end of correction - both and
- - we may go up and retest 11000 (thin will soon allow that) in 12345 up trend
- - WXYXZ can transform into a larger WXY and become only its first W wave, with whatever wave X up follows being just an upwards correction
2) (WXY) (blue) ( , then )
a (WXY) variation of (WXYXZ) (red) with first X further down the channel, still implies 2nd X upwards correction.
results in a 2nd X upwards correction or a down trend continuation in wave Y with a drop to 3K before 2nd X starts
3) (WXYXZ) (green) ( )
this count implies that the 2018 bear market correction is over and a bull run/correction upwards should start now. But it won't happen due to fundamental reasons.
That's why I'm moving 12345 up trend to spring
4) (WXYXZ) (orange)
this is basically an inverted upwards WXYXZ subwave inside a long X after the first W with Z ending at 6800 or blue channel top, with another decline afterwards.
depending on ABCDE triangle there are also 2 subcounts for each count:
- in type1 subcount ABCDE is not a triangle but an inside Y or Z or each count
- in type2 subcount ABCDE is a triangle inside wave X with a higher probabiliy drop to 3K, so
all corresponding 2nd Xs move to their alt pos (E) and
all Ys to their corresponding alt pos at 3K
in EW 2nd X and last Y/Z can be a triangle
So, basically all counts are the same: sideways, then drop to 3K. Or upwards correction to 6800, then drop . Or just ranging sideways for 1-2 months
Good Luck! Please, don't trade based only on my analysis, confirm/disprove using other sources.
To control Bitcoin you need:
- 51% hashpower (mining pools)
- 51% supply (OTC deals, mining pools, drain the market)
- no protocol adjustments, no forks (don't change the protocol to keep existing hardware compatible, In Satoshi original version we trust!)
They are currently draining the market, absorbing all existing supply, buying exchanges, launching private stable coins, setting up custodian services:
- smaller miners will go out of business at these prices and sell their supply or entire operations soon
- retail investors will lose patience and sell
- the market is essentially dead, volume is non-existent, indicators don't work - so, expect all kinds of things
- Down trend is when the price is going down even on the good news. Up trend is when the price goes up even on the bad news.
The price they pay for crypto doesn't matter:
- they will set their own price in the future or
- kill the crypto market entirely to introduce their own privately controlled crypto products instead.
This is already happening with BCH, XRP etc, leaving aside the PR stunt war. The Great Centralization is coming. Most crypto will die. They are building Facebooks and Amazons of crypto right now.
- CME: we will tame Bitcoin
- VanEck: hopefully our product will last for the next 100 years
- IMF: Central Banks should consider launching their own state-issued cryptocurrency
screen for reference:
triangle in Z and the end of correction - both bullish and bearish
- Bullish - we may go up and retest 11000 pivot (thin Ichimoku cloud will soon allow that) in 12345 up trend
- Bearish - WXYXZ can transform into a larger WXY and become only its first W wave, with whatever wave X up follows being just an upwards correction
Here I'm using my Multi SMA EMA BB Pro MTF to illustrate.
Dotted lines are SMAs, straight lines - EMAs. Red - 50, Yellow - 100, Blue - 200.
However, 2018 does not look like the 2013 Bull Market, more like 2014 Bear but you have to relabel S1 S2 R1 R2.