BTC, The KEY to unlock the FUTURE is hidden in the PAST !
We can never predict the future without looking to the past !
Many analysts and traders are involved these days in latest short or mid term trend lines or small scale channels. They may use some other tools like Ichimoku clouds or pitchfork for opening a long or short position however, non of them can give us an insight to what is happening in BTC these days. In fact, we can never solve the problem looking to recent chart . We have to analyze the past to unlock the future.
What has been going on BTC between Dec 2017 and Mar 2020 is our important key ! how? Lets go through the analysis and find answers:
I have shown two possible wave counts for BTC on weekly chart. Both have their supporters these days. Which one is correct? We are in the world of possibilities not certainties. I myself, have my own idea about this and devoted my last publication (see related idea for details) to this subject and also I have my own reasons for that which is beyond the scope of this publication. Here, we are going to discuss these two possibilities.
Left side chart:
In this chart, BITCOIN has completed an impulsive section of a wave cycle and now is in the major correction! This analysis takes all time between Dec 2017 and Mar 2020 as a double failure flat correction. In this case, BTC may fall to 26357 or even 14765 to complete the major correction. A great chance for long term investment is waiting for smart investors at the proposed supports.
Right side chart :
In this one, some may take price moves between Dec 2017 and Dec 2018 as circled wave 2 (Primary degree), the up going move form Dec 2018 to June 2019 as smaller degree wave 1 (intermediate degree ) and finally decline form June 2019 high to Mar 2020 low as smaller degree wave 2 (Intermediate degree). In this scenario, supporters are waiting for another profitable up going wave (which is primary degree wave 5) to complete the cycle degree 5 leg up going impulsive wave.
Whats are implications ? :
It is obvious that each scenario calls for a specific actions for traders and investors. Following are implications :
Left side chart with flat correction :
First : There will be a great chance for long term investors at the end of correction at proposed supports.
Second: There may be a considerable decline from current price down to next Fibonacci levels shown on the chart.
Third: As it is correcting about 10 years impulsive wave, correction duration may be much higher than just 6 months !
Righ side chart with smaller degree wave 2 :
First : Maximum correction will be at 28283 USD corresponding to 0.618 Retracement of intermediate degree wave 3. Based on Classic Elliott, this is the last acceptable level for a wave 4 correction and it most probably will be a shadow in daily time frame touching this price. This also respects one of important Elliott wave guidelines which says larger degree wave 4s terminate at territory of smaller degree wave 4s and usually at their bottoms.
Second : Correction may be completed at 32933 corresponding to 0.5 Retracement of intermediate degree wave 3 . This level is also in territory of smaller degree wave 4.
Third: There will be a huge decline after making a new ATH which suggest a great sell opportunity.
Fourth : This is not a long term investment chance.
Is there any practical similarity between two scenarios? Yes. They both suggest 26000 - 28000 USD as strong buy zone.
My final point :
Please note both chart just show ascending complete cycles. We have some other types of cycles with descending Anti-cycle as the most dangerous one. It means BTC chart can take some other unusual forms which we skip them for now.
I will update my analysis if necessary in appropriate time.
Thanks for the following and good luck.
Many analysts and traders are involved these days in latest short or mid term trend lines or small scale channels. They may use some other tools like Ichimoku clouds or pitchfork for opening a long or short position however, non of them can give us an insight to what is happening in BTC these days. In fact, we can never solve the problem looking to recent chart . We have to analyze the past to unlock the future.
What has been going on BTC between Dec 2017 and Mar 2020 is our important key ! how? Lets go through the analysis and find answers:
I have shown two possible wave counts for BTC on weekly chart. Both have their supporters these days. Which one is correct? We are in the world of possibilities not certainties. I myself, have my own idea about this and devoted my last publication (see related idea for details) to this subject and also I have my own reasons for that which is beyond the scope of this publication. Here, we are going to discuss these two possibilities.
Left side chart:
In this chart, BITCOIN has completed an impulsive section of a wave cycle and now is in the major correction! This analysis takes all time between Dec 2017 and Mar 2020 as a double failure flat correction. In this case, BTC may fall to 26357 or even 14765 to complete the major correction. A great chance for long term investment is waiting for smart investors at the proposed supports.
Right side chart :
In this one, some may take price moves between Dec 2017 and Dec 2018 as circled wave 2 (Primary degree), the up going move form Dec 2018 to June 2019 as smaller degree wave 1 (intermediate degree ) and finally decline form June 2019 high to Mar 2020 low as smaller degree wave 2 (Intermediate degree). In this scenario, supporters are waiting for another profitable up going wave (which is primary degree wave 5) to complete the cycle degree 5 leg up going impulsive wave.
Whats are implications ? :
It is obvious that each scenario calls for a specific actions for traders and investors. Following are implications :
Left side chart with flat correction :
First : There will be a great chance for long term investors at the end of correction at proposed supports.
Second: There may be a considerable decline from current price down to next Fibonacci levels shown on the chart.
Third: As it is correcting about 10 years impulsive wave, correction duration may be much higher than just 6 months !
Righ side chart with smaller degree wave 2 :
First : Maximum correction will be at 28283 USD corresponding to 0.618 Retracement of intermediate degree wave 3. Based on Classic Elliott, this is the last acceptable level for a wave 4 correction and it most probably will be a shadow in daily time frame touching this price. This also respects one of important Elliott wave guidelines which says larger degree wave 4s terminate at territory of smaller degree wave 4s and usually at their bottoms.
Second : Correction may be completed at 32933 corresponding to 0.5 Retracement of intermediate degree wave 3 . This level is also in territory of smaller degree wave 4.
Third: There will be a huge decline after making a new ATH which suggest a great sell opportunity.
Fourth : This is not a long term investment chance.
Is there any practical similarity between two scenarios? Yes. They both suggest 26000 - 28000 USD as strong buy zone.
My final point :
Please note both chart just show ascending complete cycles. We have some other types of cycles with descending Anti-cycle as the most dangerous one. It means BTC chart can take some other unusual forms which we skip them for now.
I will update my analysis if necessary in appropriate time.
Thanks for the following and good luck.
