Bitcoin has been in a downtrend since November 2021... Has the Bull Run resumed?
My thoughts below:
Bitcoin has faced immense selling pressure since the tail end of 2021. This selling pressure seems to have been exhausted as bulls work to retake the Bull Market Support Band and flip it to support. If Bitcoin can turn the BMSB into support, it will serve as a launchpad for Bitcoin to soar to new ATHs. What was odd about 2021 was the fact that Bitcoin had all the right catalysts lined up to begin its ascent to $100K and beyond. However, the S2F and its timeline did not pan out and left many traders liquidated. When Bitcoin passed $60K, everyone thought $100K was readily in sight as Greed & Euphoria took over...
IMO, Bitcoin failed to rally to $100K because of the S2F and traders trying to front run price. Additionally, the US failed to approved a much needed BITCOIN SPOT ETF. They approved a futures product instead. This led to hedge funds shorting SPOT $BTC and buying futures to cover the spread and trade off the margins.
Recently, Bitcoin has rallied to $40K and has broken critical resistance at $46K. Now, the bulls are back in control as identified by the Bull Market Support Band being broken today. Much more, Bitcoin continued its rampage up to $48.4K intraday. The velocity and momentum of Bitcoin is back in the bulls favor. And the bears couldn't get the price below $30K to save their lives. Bitcoin is extremely undervalued and both LTH and STH holders know this. Not to mention, a confluence of On-Chain indicators have been signaling and are now flashing bullish. These indicators include: STH cost-basis and P/L ratio (7 Day SMA), OI and short liquidations, Dormancy Flow, NUPL, whale wallets and accumulation patterns, and more.
To summarize my chart...
In May 2021:
- Bitcoin broke below 20MA and 21SMA (Bull Market Support Band)
- Liquidation wick to $30K
- MACD crosses bearish
During Summer 2021:
- Choppy Sideways trend followed by accumulation
- Fear wick to $28K
- Bullish engulfing candle in July
- MACD cross signaling bullish resumption to upside
During Fall 2021:
- Bitcoin rallies to $50K+
- Bullish retest to BMSB
- Cascade wick lower to fake out
- BMSB acted as resistance and then, was flipped to support!
Winter 2021:
- Bitcoin soars off support to $69K
- S2F seems reasonable
- Greed & Euphoria
- Bitcoin crashes below BMSB and liquidation wick to $40K scares traders
- Then, BMSB acts as resistance, sending Bitcoin to $33K
- MACD crosses bearish, again...
Happy New Year (2022):
- Bitcoin starts of 2022 to upside until BMSB acts as resistance AGAIN
- Choppy, sideways trend bores traders for Q1 of 2022
- Bulls try to break resistance but fail... AGAIN
March 2022:
- Bitcoin shows confluence of Bullish indicators both on-chain and technically
- Bitcoin wicks to $33K right before the bulls send it past the BMSB (Third Time is a Charm?!)
TODAY:
- Bitcoin has gapped the BMSB past $46K to $48.4K intraday
- BMSB now has the chance to act as support, triggering a resumption of the Bull Run/Halving Cycle
- MACD has crossed BULLISH, AGAIN!
Bitcoin is going to $100K+ very, very soon.
Destiny Arrives All the Same.
- The Bitcoin Baron
My thoughts below:
Bitcoin has faced immense selling pressure since the tail end of 2021. This selling pressure seems to have been exhausted as bulls work to retake the Bull Market Support Band and flip it to support. If Bitcoin can turn the BMSB into support, it will serve as a launchpad for Bitcoin to soar to new ATHs. What was odd about 2021 was the fact that Bitcoin had all the right catalysts lined up to begin its ascent to $100K and beyond. However, the S2F and its timeline did not pan out and left many traders liquidated. When Bitcoin passed $60K, everyone thought $100K was readily in sight as Greed & Euphoria took over...
IMO, Bitcoin failed to rally to $100K because of the S2F and traders trying to front run price. Additionally, the US failed to approved a much needed BITCOIN SPOT ETF. They approved a futures product instead. This led to hedge funds shorting SPOT $BTC and buying futures to cover the spread and trade off the margins.
Recently, Bitcoin has rallied to $40K and has broken critical resistance at $46K. Now, the bulls are back in control as identified by the Bull Market Support Band being broken today. Much more, Bitcoin continued its rampage up to $48.4K intraday. The velocity and momentum of Bitcoin is back in the bulls favor. And the bears couldn't get the price below $30K to save their lives. Bitcoin is extremely undervalued and both LTH and STH holders know this. Not to mention, a confluence of On-Chain indicators have been signaling and are now flashing bullish. These indicators include: STH cost-basis and P/L ratio (7 Day SMA), OI and short liquidations, Dormancy Flow, NUPL, whale wallets and accumulation patterns, and more.
To summarize my chart...
In May 2021:
- Bitcoin broke below 20MA and 21SMA (Bull Market Support Band)
- Liquidation wick to $30K
- MACD crosses bearish
During Summer 2021:
- Choppy Sideways trend followed by accumulation
- Fear wick to $28K
- Bullish engulfing candle in July
- MACD cross signaling bullish resumption to upside
During Fall 2021:
- Bitcoin rallies to $50K+
- Bullish retest to BMSB
- Cascade wick lower to fake out
- BMSB acted as resistance and then, was flipped to support!
Winter 2021:
- Bitcoin soars off support to $69K
- S2F seems reasonable
- Greed & Euphoria
- Bitcoin crashes below BMSB and liquidation wick to $40K scares traders
- Then, BMSB acts as resistance, sending Bitcoin to $33K
- MACD crosses bearish, again...
Happy New Year (2022):
- Bitcoin starts of 2022 to upside until BMSB acts as resistance AGAIN
- Choppy, sideways trend bores traders for Q1 of 2022
- Bulls try to break resistance but fail... AGAIN
March 2022:
- Bitcoin shows confluence of Bullish indicators both on-chain and technically
- Bitcoin wicks to $33K right before the bulls send it past the BMSB (Third Time is a Charm?!)
TODAY:
- Bitcoin has gapped the BMSB past $46K to $48.4K intraday
- BMSB now has the chance to act as support, triggering a resumption of the Bull Run/Halving Cycle
- MACD has crossed BULLISH, AGAIN!
Bitcoin is going to $100K+ very, very soon.
Destiny Arrives All the Same.
- The Bitcoin Baron
