The speculative cup and handle is now valid and in play

After the recent correction,the previous idea about this cup and handle (which I will link below) which described this pattern as purely speculative because we had not yet started to form a legitimate handle,is now no longer speculative as we have retraced enough and for enough daily candles to consider the current price action a handle even if it breaks above the rim line in jsut the next few days. There are still a couple speculative aspects to this chart. I went ahead and picked a random guesstimate for the length of the handle that I drew with the red trendlines. I tried to make it wider than it might actually be just to try to keep the price action inside its parameters as it develops…I also took its depth down to around the daily 50ma(in orange) it could go lower than that, or it could already have reached its lowest point, I felt doing so would be a nice middle ground for wherever it eventually finds its lowest point to be. Lastly where I placed the dotted green measured move line is also currently speculative…as always I just guesstimate an breakout point for the emasured move line until we have validated the breakdown then I go back an adjust the measured move line accordingly to get the most precise breakout target. Good news is where ever this thing eventually breaks out the target would be somewhere around 130k or higher. Now for the more bearish scenario, Iwent ahead and cloned the rimline of the cup and found that when I put it on the bottom and make a channel with it, there were enough pivotal candlestick touches on that line that not only is the cup and handle very valid so is the channel, this means should we somehow experience some sort of massive black swan, that it would be possible for price action to drop far enough to retest that bottom channel trendline and in turn nullify the cup and handle. This seems like a much lower probability than the cup and handle triggering its validation but it is indeed still a possibility…also, should it do something like that, and the channel becomes the more valid pattern, the breakout target of the channel would be roughly the exact same as whenever we were to break up and out of the cup and handle anyways, so to be honest, a retest of the bottom of the channel would actually be an even greater opportunity than if we just went ahead and broke up from the cup and handle itself because it would allow us to accumulate much more at a much lower price and the percentage of gains that could be made from all the way at the bottom of the channel to the final breakout target would be much higher. For now though I think just breaking up from the cup and handle is the much mroe probable outcome, but I am always ready for the less probable outcomes to occur as well. Really, in my opinion, no matter what happens in this situation, it’s a win win. *not financial advice*

Comment:

A retest of the bottom trendline of the channel would mean a correction of 72-74% or so….seems pretty improbable in a bull run but we must remember the covid black swan correction was during a bull run and was almost that big of a correction so being that it’s not impossible it’s worth at lest considering.