Open shorts are not moving allot, increased a bit but the open long have increased quite a bit again, more than usual. So positive development there as well. Alts are showing some movement as well now, which looked pretty bad a few days ago. But all of this is just a small first step and is nothing big yet. We really need to see getting in otherwise it won't mean anything because the risk for a dump would still be very high if the bears feel too comfortable. We want them to feel nervous of the price moving up, we don't want them to get a smile on their face for having a better to price short this market again.
For me the 6800/6900 is a level i have been mentioning a while now, that if it breaks i think the 7400ish will probably be a formality. So even though it would be much too soon to call it already, but if we break the 6900 we might be able to see a higher high for the first time in 2018 AND a higher low as well. So this will probably be an important week for this market. On the right we see a small , in a spot i usually don't like so much, but it's above the neckline and still trying to push higher. The target is around the 6850.
The difference between the bear and bull exchanges has been increasing even more now, reaching levels of 70 to 80+ points now even. That's why we want to see high because we need this spread come close to zero again. Price should stay above the neckline around 6600/6550 ( exchanges) and the 6400ish should really be the max. So below 6550 things become slightly in favor of the bears again and below 6400 we really need to assume the bears are fully in control again. Don't think the bulls could get over a drop below 6400.
I still have 2 fractals from 2 weeks ago for the longer term, and one, but i still have them in a hidden post and i won't show them until we break the 6900 or the 6200ish.
Because of the other hand one could say as well, that these longs can be fuel to push the price down even more if we would break (for example) the 6400.
When looking at the chart, the inverse H&S has failed, no surprise there of course because of the very low volume. But that it has failed is a bad sign. The price is also around a support level now of that trend line. When that breaks we could see a drop towards the 6400 again.
Yesterday's move gave some hope that we might be leaving the 6400/6660 range, but seems it's still a shit show unfortunately. It's like the market is waiting for some big news to happen and like some people already know that something is coming, since yesterdays move got stopped once again. But what is it? Does anyone know?
Looks like a small H&S which is about to break this trend line. This whole channel might even be a (very ugly) wedge. If that's the case, we should see a quick drop to last weeks low. But i am wondering if that will happen though. Past 2 weeks we have seen rallies being stopped AND drops being stopped as well.
The blue line is the trend line from the 8500 high. Bitfinex is still above it so it could still just be a retest. But i am personally not giving allot of value to these trend lines the past 2 weeks, again because of the low volume. Again there are allot of buy orders on Bitmex, but don't know if it will work as support again since this time it looks like that channel will break, but not there yet though.
The bearish exchanges show small bear flags and the bullish ones show a good bounce. I have seen market buys on Bitstamp at the low that i have never seen the past 6/8 weeks, since i watch that website where you can see the big market orders. Could be because of the spread (bitstamp dropped much more than others) or maybe it was buying support. There were some big BTC transfers from Bitfinex to Bitstamp a week or 2 ago.
Anyway, if the current low breaks around 6400, than we should see more bearish action, that level is very important!
Shorts on Finex are increase a bit again and longs are dropping a bit. Doesn't say much though, but good to be aware.