botje11

Bitcoin is moving but still inside the range and low volume

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Finally seeing a bull run again since we moved from 6600 to 6700 today :) But before the bulls get too excited the volume is still very low and there is still some selling. Based on this, it shows we are not ready yet to make a big move but it could still be just a matter of time though because the real resistance is probably around 6800/6900. If we don't see big volume if we break the 6800/6900 than the chances will be much higher that this move will just be another fake rally. What we want to see, is the bull defeating the bears, meaning we want to see a big volume fight between them. Because of that would happen, it means the bears have lost a fight and they will probably start to close their short positions as well, which means extra buying power to move the price even higher.

Open shorts are not moving allot, increased a bit but the open long have increased quite a bit again, more than usual. So positive development there as well. Alts are showing some bullish movement as well now, which looked pretty bad a few days ago. But all of this is just a small first step and is nothing big yet. We really need to see volume getting in otherwise it won't mean anything because the risk for a dump would still be very high if the bears feel too comfortable. We want them to feel nervous of the price moving up, we don't want them to get a smile on their face for having a better to price short this market again.

For me the 6800/6900 is a level i have been mentioning a while now, that if it breaks i think the 7400ish will probably be a formality. So even though it would be much too soon to call it already, but if we break the 6900 we might be able to see a higher high for the first time in 2018 AND a higher low as well. So this will probably be an important week for this market. On the right we see a small inverse H&S , in a spot i usually don't like so much, but it's above the neckline and still trying to push higher. The target is around the 6850.

The difference between the bear and bull exchanges has been increasing even more now, reaching levels of 70 to 80+ points now even. That's why we want to see high volume because we need this spread come close to zero again. Price should stay above the neckline around 6600/6550 ( bearish exchanges) and the 6400ish should really be the max. So below 6550 things become slightly in favor of the bears again and below 6400 we really need to assume the bears are fully in control again. Don't think the bulls could get over a drop below 6400.

I still have 2 fractals from 2 weeks ago for the longer term, bearish and bullish one, but i still have them in a hidden post and i won't show them until we break the 6900 or the 6200ish.

Previous analysis:

Oct 08
Comment: The triangle i talked about in the previous analysis is still in play, but as we can see there is no follow through AND now volume. This tells us we might drop again towards that first green support to see if buyers are willing to step in again at that price

Oct 08
Comment: Open long/short analysis:
Oct 08
Comment: And here we see again, how the lame/low volume has been the reason for a failure of that triangle. Now we are still above the neckline of the inverse H&S, so that is good. Don't want to see it get below that support!
Oct 09
Comment: Now first supports broke already but still above the 6550ish. What sticks out though, i see allot of buy orders on Bitmex waiting to get filled, were like 30 mil spread over 15 points. Last time i mentioned this the price did move big but we did go up though. And when looking at the volume picture, we can see (on all exchanges btw) that the volume on this small drop is less than the buying we saw yesterday. That would also indicate that there has been accumulation. Looking at the open long and short on Finex, you can actually even see it. But that doesn't say everything of course because those numbers are not big.

Because of the other hand one could say as well, that these longs can be fuel to push the price down even more if we would break (for example) the 6400.

When looking at the chart, the inverse H&S has failed, no surprise there of course because of the very low volume. But that it has failed is a bad sign. The price is also around a support level now of that trend line. When that breaks we could see a drop towards the 6400 again.

Yesterday's move gave some hope that we might be leaving the 6400/6660 range, but seems it's still a shit show unfortunately. It's like the market is waiting for some big news to happen and like some people already know that something is coming, since yesterdays move got stopped once again. But what is it? Does anyone know?

Oct 09
Comment: So the price did move up from the moment I mentioned those big buy orders waiting to get filled. But no real strong move though, finex went up 70 points from that low while bitmex only went 30 points up. My biggest fear actually is, that we keep moving like those for a few more weeks, between 6400/6800. So either something is going on behind the screens (let’s hope) or the problem is that there is completely nothing going on and we will keep on seeing these boring low volume moves :(
Oct 09
Comment: Can keep drawing lines and channels and triangles or whatever, but everything simply just changes. Problem is the low volume.

Looks like a small H&S which is about to break this trend line. This whole channel might even be a (very ugly) wedge. If that's the case, we should see a quick drop to last weeks low. But i am wondering if that will happen though. Past 2 weeks we have seen rallies being stopped AND drops being stopped as well.

The blue line is the trend line from the 8500 high. Bitfinex is still above it so it could still just be a retest. But i am personally not giving allot of value to these trend lines the past 2 weeks, again because of the low volume. Again there are allot of buy orders on Bitmex, but don't know if it will work as support again since this time it looks like that channel will break, but not there yet though.
Oct 09
Comment: I posted an extra update about Bitcoin and possible OTC volume. Please check it out to see if you could contribute to solving this potential puzzle

Oct 10
Comment: So it was a wedge, it was just such an ugly one but that's probably as well because of the low volume. So the target was reached already and there seems to have been a bounce from the support line on the right so far.

The bearish exchanges show small bear flags and the bullish ones show a good bounce. I have seen market buys on Bitstamp at the low that i have never seen the past 6/8 weeks, since i watch that website where you can see the big market orders. Could be because of the spread (bitstamp dropped much more than others) or maybe it was buying support. There were some big BTC transfers from Bitfinex to Bitstamp a week or 2 ago.

Anyway, if the current low breaks around 6400, than we should see more bearish action, that level is very important!

Oct 10
Comment: Bitcoin is weakening a bit again, could mean we drop. The bulls need to hold that green support there otherwise it could mean we will leave this sideways zone and drop more.

Shorts on Finex are increase a bit again and longs are dropping a bit. Doesn't say much though, but good to be aware.



Oct 11
Comment: Update
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I think 6800 will be broken in 48 hours.
+3 Reply
Still in bullish wedge since 1 month. Linear Support works pretty well.
Reply
cpiljoo Zenter
@Zenter, which wedge are you refering to?
Reply
Zenter cpiljoo
@cpiljoo, wedge is broken unfortunately :(
Reply
xrayer Zenter
@Zenter, sure, now we all see this :-DDDDDDDDD
Reply
Zenter xrayer
@xrayer, :( bad days again.
Reply
Agree. Low volume on a bearish market means that, more drops. People think bottom has come, but I would never consider that.
Reply
UmairEjaz Oboogie
@Oboogie, low volume in bearish market means bullish what are you saying ? get your facts right
+3 Reply
Oboogie UmairEjaz
@UmairEjaz, Damm bro, was just an opinion based on the fact that if there's low volume and we are in a bearish market, the price will continue to drop, that's it.
Reply
oztriker00 Oboogie
@Oboogie, if you thing about it: bearish market means more sellers than buyers right ? so that mean most of the volume is coming from people/bots selling. So if the volume drops in a bear market, it means sellers are easing out on the "sell" button (for now).
+5 Reply
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