BTC - Be careful, the macro trend is still very bearish

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Long-term I am extremely bullish on BTC . However there is no denying we are in a crash pattern. Until we get some bullish signals on the daily chart I would be very careful injecting any more fiat into the market. Also,the macro movements of BTC are difficult to predict, so the important thing to note in this chart are the price levels and their significance, not the overall pattern itself. As usual, your strategy should be changing based on any new data, and this data will be old as soon as you read it. Always keep that in mind! With my caveats out of the way, let's get started.

I believe we are currently in the "hope" phase of the crash pattern. This hope phase could continue on this leg as high as $10,200 or slightly over. My belief comes from the obvious signs on the chart, but also a few fundamental factors. First, no new money is coming into the market - the tether printer has been quiet and volume has dropped off whereas volatility has gone crazy. Furthermore, whenever BTC booms alts sink - this means money is just being moved around internal to the market, but not being injected into the market from fiat (which would mean alts would not bleed as much).

Soon we can see a second collapse. This collapse could go as low as 6K although many traders are calling a bounce at $7,200. Either way we will see a run at least to previous lows ($8,500-$9,200) like we are seeing now. If these lows are not broken we will see a final collapse into the "despair" phase, at which point we will likely begin consolidating for a true bull season. Note that the prices and patterns shown on my chart are approximate. I do not try to predict timeframes nor exact prices, simply the overall market pattern.

In short, if you are trading in this market these are the key levels to look out for, in order:

$12K on this run: Bear trend officially broken, all these predictions are out the window.
$10,200 on this run: Likely maximum possible level for bitcoin .
$6,000-$7,200: Next bounce level, due to strong support from previous bounce and plenty of buyers thinking it must be absolute bottom.
$8,500-$9,200: Likely maximum price level after this bounce.
$4,000-$5,500: True despair prices.

I appreciate any feedback - especially contrarian feedback. It's always important to have your views and opinions challenged, ESPECIALLY when analyzing the market! Thanks, and happy trading!
Comment: Welcome to the bull flag, we got blood and games!

If you have balls of steel you could play the bounce here, but you best have a tight stop, recognizing that the pink arrow is an equally likely possibility

Comment: *bear flag. Silly me. Can't edit comments, sadly.
Comment: Seeing some bullish divergences on smaller timeframes, so a bounce is reasonably likely.

Don't fall to FOMO (unless you day trade and already noticed this and entered a long at 8,900, in which case congrats for recognizing the divergence). I personally don't have the time to baby the charts and monitor the position, so I'm staying out of this one.

Comment: Semi-regular update on this idea.While the trendlines are rough / approximate, it appears we are just consolidating in this zone before another leg down. I find day-trading is for gamblers and bots, which is why the levels are so crazy - bots like to break trendlines and wash out peoples stops on either side. Still, the pattern isn't promising for longs no matter how you look it. Especially of note is that sell volume on the dips is much greater than buy volume. We could even break down today, although its less likely.

Comment: BTC is reaching a critical decision point here, short-term.

We can see its forming a nice consolidation pattern after its recent bounce up. This consolidation pattern, of course, has two possibilities. As a trader its important to recognize both and wait until the odds tilt in favor of one or the other before responding.

Option 1 (which is, in my opinion, less likely) is that we pierce the cloud bullishly and make a run for 10K. 10K is major psychological resistance so I would highly doubt we break it in the first go, and would lead to a retraction to the $8,500 region. This option becomes more likely if the G20 press conference today has some great crypto news. In fact, it is likely confirmed by any good G20 news, so keep an eye on that.

Option 2 is that we reject this cloud (currently higher probability) and retrace again. It is tough to say where the exact bottom here would be, but I do not believe we completely fall through the floor quite yet. There's simply too many people who believe in this run. It's much more likely we make a small rebound after hitting the $7,500 range, at which point we can reassess with the new data provided.

For anyone wondering, I don't use clouds when making my actual entry and exit decisions on a long-term basis, which is why they're not on the chart. I also only use them for BTC and on medium term timeframes such as 4H. However, when analyzing entry or exit from an actual trade on a shorter-term basis (relatively speaking. Not day-trading here), clouds in my opinion become very useful, such as in this 4H chart where the cloud confirms the massive amount of resistance we would need to pierce here.
Trade active: I have entered a long, triggered on the 8.700 rebreach. Tight stop, as this is counter-trend trading and I still believe we have more room to fall.

I forgot to mention there is also smaller resistance at the first blue area. we will need to watch both these zones.

Target 1: $9,200
Target 2: $9,500
Target 3: $9,800.
Trade active: Forgot to post a chart. 1H most relevant timeframe for this trade.

Also be careful of the major downtrend, this could also be the local top. Thus the reason for the tight stop.

Trade active: counter-trend stop moved up to 8,9 to lock in profit.
Trade active: Stop-loss filled. Could always continue to $9,500 here, but I'm not concerned. This is counter-trend trading and until we officially break the bear-trend taking profits early and often is always a good idea.
Comment: Update with several charts, and a contrarian view! Always important.

First, the daily chart. As you can see the SMA 200 is very close to us right now. The last time we breached it we did so on significant volume. We will need a similar amount of volume to continue our short-term bullish counter-trend.

on the 4H chart we can pretty clearly see we're in a no-trade zone based on previous support and resistance levels. Scalping should be the only option here, if you're actively trading.


It's always important to look at viewpoints that counter your own. The contrarian opinion is that we have already broken the descending channel and we have formed a new uptrend channel. This trend would be confirmed by a breach of the 200SMA on volume and failure to breach 8.2K bearishly on retracement.

TL/DR: the 200 Daily SMA is very significant. We are currently in a no-trade zone (excepting day traders and scalpers) but if we push up through it and the 200SMA on volume a long would be a reasonable trade, with trailing stops that are continuously moved up to lock in profit. If this happens it will also become very important to watch what the inevitable retracement. A failure to breach 8K bearishly would all but signal the end of the major bear-trend and invalidate my entire initial chart.

Of course, please post any comments or disagreements with this analysis!
Comment: Forgot to post the contrarian chart as well:

Comment: There's a lot going on here with bitcoin the next few days, so I'm updating my views daily.

The contrarian charts show we could have a nice bounce off the 7800-ish levels (time-frame dependent) before we go bull. It will be important to watch volume profiles if / when we drop this low to determine if this view is accurate. If volume is still low and we don't get a nice bounce, we will go full bear to at least 6,000 again.

On the 4H chart not much has changed - 8800 is still the place to go long and scalp, and a breach of 9400 is the level that gives the first sign we may be out of the bear trend.

As always, please respond with any different opinions or things you feel I may have missed. If you're not constantly learning, you're not doing it right!
Comment: Good morning everyone! I hope you had an excellent weekend.

BTC is staying in its downtrend as predicted, just slightly slower than I initially anticipated. Possible temporary reversal areas are the 7800 range and ascending trendline, so it will be important to watch buying volume at these areas. If we hit them at the same time it would be a great time to scalp a long position, but remember there is a strong possibility of falling through all support levels. Trade with caution.

its over. without the tether cannon firing daily, spiking btc up inexplicably, people are starting to finally realize this was completely unsustainable. money is leaving the market now, not coming in.

bitfinex only allowing new customers with a minimum of $10k usd, no new fake usdt to prop up prices, tax season FORCING the biggest whales to liquidate and leave the market...especially in "bitcoin friendly japan" (note the 55% tax on big earners after $375k usd)

even with no fud whatsoever now, the market is barely limping along, on ever decreasing volume. $20k btc was a dream. $3.50 ripple, $1600 eth, $4000 bch...we wont see those numbers again for years.
+1 Reply
calcie henry7696
@henry7696, I disagree. I think we'll see those numbers within 12-14 months. Cryptocurrency is here to stay. However, my opinion doesn't matter at all, and I'm not going to buy into "hope." I will wait until I see a convincing bullish move and trade cautiously. As an investor and trader, it really doesn't matter what I believe, only what I see happen.

I'm sure people said the same thing when bitcoin crashed from $12 to $2, or the 2014 crash. It's really impossible to say.

thank you for your insight man.
"Soon we can see a second collapse."
BOOM! Happens! :D
+2 Reply
calcie Petronius
@Petronius, PURE luck, and don't let anyone tell you differently! The exact timing of swings in this market is impossible. To make money off BTC you have to have the patience and fortitude of a saint, usually!
+2 Reply
@calcie, Sure, but it was so funny ;)
+1 Reply
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