Hey all,
I am going to try to convince you in this publication on why the BTC price trend is not BEARISH, why it will form into a Triangle Pattern, and why it is BULLISH on the breakout.
Also again, no TA that tries to predict the price/trend can be completely objective IMO. My aim is only to share my predictions for an interesting read.
We see a Triangle Pattern forming with the support line since Mid-May and the resistance line since Mid-Jun, looking to breakout sometime during Early/Mid-Sept.
I tend to believe a Pattern Formation in a Longer-Term is more accurate with less noise than in the S/R.
The heavy resistance regions are shown as the green boxes and the heavy support regions as red:
We can observe the mentioned regions formed by looking at the Horizontal Resistance and Support Levels, as well as the Fibonacci Levels.
And more importantly, these regions see rather less action horizontally (looking at the VPVR profile), so in a sense prices tend to avoid these regions and bounce away.
You may spot straight away a downwards-looking trend and thus feel the BTC price looks BEARISH, specifically:
At first sight as I labelled, we see the downward trend formed of 2 Lower Highs and 1 Lower Low in between.
However, the most recent dip was rejected at our heavy support level, at $9,400. Thus unable to form further a Lower Low.
This marks a reversal trend, more specifically the price moving back towards the Triangle Pattern.
So, are we going to see a reversal to a strong uptrend soon in the S/R? I personally don't think the market is ready to gain significant momentum yet. We can look at the Technical Indicators and the Volume as reference:
If we look at the RSI, BTC price has been staying within the 30-70 region since Mid-July, thus looking to consolidate further.
Looking at the MACD, we see the most volatile movement from End-Jun to Early-Jul with MACD far away from the baseline. However, it is looking to have a gradual narrower price movement along the baseline.
Finally looking at both the Volume and the OBV, we clearly see buying/selling power weakening since End-Jun.
These all prove to be BTC price level narrowing into consolidation and gathering power for the breakout in the L/R.
At last, I'd also like to note a big difference from previous days to the current state for BTC:
We can see the 'mid-line' of the formation at around the $10,500 level. This means the price will consolidate near this line for this Triangle Pattern I've drawn.
We used to view the $10,000 price level as such a strong psychological level, i.e. once the price breaks up/down from this level, it will take a very long time to retest it again.
However during this run or more specifically, during the last month, we have seen the price cross the $10,000 level so many times already, such that I suspect the new strong psychological level will lie somewhere between $15,000-$17,000 or even higher.
Why suggest so? We can observe that the magnitude of the breakout upwards will likely be between 5,000-7,000 points, if we look at the vertical distance of the Triangle Formation. Thus we will very likely be testing the strong resistance level $15,000-$17,000 after the breakout.
This is not intended to be, and should not be construed as being, (a) any offer, solicitation, or promotion of any kind; (b) the basis of any investment or other decision(s); © any recommendation to buy, sell or transact in any manner any good(s), product(s) or service(s), nor engage in any investment(s) or other transaction(s) or activities; or (d) the provision of, or related to, any advisory service(s) or activities, including regarding any investment, tax, legal, financial, accounting, consulting or any other related service(s).
I am going to try to convince you in this publication on why the BTC price trend is not BEARISH, why it will form into a Triangle Pattern, and why it is BULLISH on the breakout.
Also again, no TA that tries to predict the price/trend can be completely objective IMO. My aim is only to share my predictions for an interesting read.
We see a Triangle Pattern forming with the support line since Mid-May and the resistance line since Mid-Jun, looking to breakout sometime during Early/Mid-Sept.
I tend to believe a Pattern Formation in a Longer-Term is more accurate with less noise than in the S/R.
The heavy resistance regions are shown as the green boxes and the heavy support regions as red:
We can observe the mentioned regions formed by looking at the Horizontal Resistance and Support Levels, as well as the Fibonacci Levels.
And more importantly, these regions see rather less action horizontally (looking at the VPVR profile), so in a sense prices tend to avoid these regions and bounce away.
You may spot straight away a downwards-looking trend and thus feel the BTC price looks BEARISH, specifically:
At first sight as I labelled, we see the downward trend formed of 2 Lower Highs and 1 Lower Low in between.
However, the most recent dip was rejected at our heavy support level, at $9,400. Thus unable to form further a Lower Low.
This marks a reversal trend, more specifically the price moving back towards the Triangle Pattern.
So, are we going to see a reversal to a strong uptrend soon in the S/R? I personally don't think the market is ready to gain significant momentum yet. We can look at the Technical Indicators and the Volume as reference:
If we look at the RSI, BTC price has been staying within the 30-70 region since Mid-July, thus looking to consolidate further.
Looking at the MACD, we see the most volatile movement from End-Jun to Early-Jul with MACD far away from the baseline. However, it is looking to have a gradual narrower price movement along the baseline.
Finally looking at both the Volume and the OBV, we clearly see buying/selling power weakening since End-Jun.
These all prove to be BTC price level narrowing into consolidation and gathering power for the breakout in the L/R.
At last, I'd also like to note a big difference from previous days to the current state for BTC:
We can see the 'mid-line' of the formation at around the $10,500 level. This means the price will consolidate near this line for this Triangle Pattern I've drawn.
We used to view the $10,000 price level as such a strong psychological level, i.e. once the price breaks up/down from this level, it will take a very long time to retest it again.
However during this run or more specifically, during the last month, we have seen the price cross the $10,000 level so many times already, such that I suspect the new strong psychological level will lie somewhere between $15,000-$17,000 or even higher.
Why suggest so? We can observe that the magnitude of the breakout upwards will likely be between 5,000-7,000 points, if we look at the vertical distance of the Triangle Formation. Thus we will very likely be testing the strong resistance level $15,000-$17,000 after the breakout.
This is not intended to be, and should not be construed as being, (a) any offer, solicitation, or promotion of any kind; (b) the basis of any investment or other decision(s); © any recommendation to buy, sell or transact in any manner any good(s), product(s) or service(s), nor engage in any investment(s) or other transaction(s) or activities; or (d) the provision of, or related to, any advisory service(s) or activities, including regarding any investment, tax, legal, financial, accounting, consulting or any other related service(s).