Bitcoin Triangle or Trend Break

botje11 Updated   
An update i did yesterday:

Once identical as Sunday week ago. Stock market futures opened lower, made a new low and then Pump, pulling Bitcoin up with it as well.

Now once again at the 9450/500 resistance (9480 level i mentioned several times week ago). Flagging pretty stable against it, increasing the chances for the bulls. Key level is still the 9700ish.

Also when looking at this chart, looks like we have the opposite move from the ABC we had 2 weeks ago. As long as we dont see a sudden drop in the stock market, think it could complete it as well.

We should NOT forget, within the 10k/8600ish zone its all within that range from past 2 months. why we keep getting these shitty random moves.

Think as long as we move above 9400ish, we could should see a move up

So question now is, is this a retest of the up trend line break, or are we still flagging (triangle) in this zone and will continue to rally.

First of all, for the bearish version, normally we should have dropped below 9500/400 by now. So normally would say, this was NOT just a retest, but market is bullish. But we had daily bullish candle traps before. the one to 10.400 i had warned back then in my channel, telling we had one before The yellow on the left), because this crap market is all about traps, we always need to be on our toes. So yesterday's candle is also very strong and normally a buy signal, but have to say it again, wouldn\t be surprised if they make it yet another trap.

9600/700 i kept talking about past week or so, is still giving resistance, but we are flagging against it which is bullish as well. So as long as we keep staying close to that 9700 (9800), ideally in the shape of a flag, normally should eventually break.
Support should be around 9500/400 i think. A daily close below 9200 would prob be very bearish!

When zooming in, it looks like a bull flag, still is, but, it needs to touch 9700+ again. Otherwise its too steep. Today's low is also an important Fib level, so if that breaks, it could drop towards 9500ish as well. So think it has to hold for now and if we see a stable move to 9700/20, chances for another rally coming days increases. But would want to see it do something like the blue line. So come back down one more time and test the flag support

Now if we would see a move up and NOT see another bull trap, think we have to break up straight to like (not a straight line but without any real corrections) to like 10400. Then we need to flag between 10600/10200 i think. If that happens, than maybe this time it won't be a trap.

So above 9500 bulls are in favor, below it, neutral. Below 9300 bears slightly in favor, below 9200 think it will become bearish.

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Previous analysis:

The bull flag i drew is playing out so far. Low could be set already of the flag. There is room on the downside a little bit more.

With this chart i just want to give a headsup in case it happens. If we see a break up from the flag, anywhere in the 9700/9900 zone and wick down again, then its a big chance we have a bull trap on our hands here and could dump much more coming week.

So, assuming this bull flag is real, we should see a good strong breakout. Since this 9700/9800+ zone is a very big resistance. So we should see big volume on the breakout and a good sized move as well.

I have no reason to think this is a Bart move bull flag. But the reason why it could still happen, is the retest of the former up trend is still in play. The left chart from the primary chart.

New Bitcoin analysis:

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