BITCOIN hit the 1W EMA100!Is this the smoothest Bear Cycle ever?

Bitcoin hit yesterday the EMA100 on the 1W time-frame (blue trend-line), ringing bells of April 2020. Why? Because this was the last time (on the April 20, 2020 1W candle to be exact) that BTC hit that level. That was a special time in history as Bitcoin (along with the rest of the global markets) was recovering from the March 2020 COVID led crash.

Excluding this pandemic crash and under non-irregular events market conditions, the last time Bitcoin hit the 1W EMA100 from above was on the November 18 2019 1W candle. Along with the MA100 (green trend-line), they held as Supports and by January 2020 the market started to recover until the eventual COVID crash.


** The importance of the 1W EMA100 and MA100 **
It is easy thus to understand the important of the 1W EMA100 and MA100. The current chart very clearly displays their significance as pivot agents of Bear Cycles. During the previous two Bear Cycles (2014 and 2018), a break below (better yet a full closing of a 1W candle) was followed by the despair sell-off. That sell-off was in both cases (January 12 2015 and November 19 2018 1W candles) the closing sequence of the Bear Cycle that made the eventual bottom on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).

What is equally useful to pay attention to is a potential MA100/ EMA100 Bearish Cross, i.e. the MA100 crossing below the EMA100. This formation during the previous two Bear Cycles (2014 and 2018) took place 3-4 weeks before the eventual Cycle bottom on the 1W MA200. Looking closely to this pattern will offer us a practical advantage to fairly accurately time the bottom.


** So is this a Bear Cycle **
Well the 1W RSI would certainly provide the basis to regard this as a Bear Cycle. As you see the RSI topped in the past two Bear Cycles on the November 25 2013 and December 11 2017 candles. In the current cycle, that RSI top took place on the January 04 2021 candle.


** It may be the smoothest Bear Cycle in Bitcoin's history **
So treating this with Bear Cycle status, it may indeed be the smoothest ever. Why? Well apart from the fact that the previous two corrected roughly -85% from their peaks and currently the 1W MA200 is less than -70% from the current peak, we had basically two tops with more than 200 days between them one in April 2021 ($65000) and the other in November 2021 ($69000). Another interesting fact to consider is that the previous two Bear Cycles lasted for 59 and 52 weeks (413 and 364 days) respectively, with their start being the absolute price peak which coincided with the RSI peak.

◾ The most recent RSI peak was on the January 04 2021 1W candle. If we use that as the starting point of the Bear Cycle then a maximum of 59 weeks (duration of the 2014 Bear Cycle ends on February 21 2022.

◾ If we count the start of this Bear Cycle from the April 12 2021 1W candle (first top), and use the 59 week max, then the Cycle ends on the May 30 2022 weekly candle.

◾ If instead we take the 52 week minimum duration of the 2018 Bear Cycle and model it on the April 12 2021 top, then the Cycle ends on the April 11 2022 1W candle.

Another critical mark to consider is the 1W RSI 30.000 level. On both previous Cycle bottoms (January 12 2015 and December 10 2018 candles respectively) the RSI marginally broke below the 30.000 level and rebounded immediately to mark the end of the Bear Cycle and the start of the new Bull Cycle.


** Conclusion **
Bitcoin is currently testing the 1W EMA100 (blue). A closing below that trend-line will most likely follow with a breach of test of the MA100 (green). Keep an eye for a weekly close below those. If it doesn't take place then we may see a rebound similar to January 2020. If the price does close below, then look for the MA100/ EMA100 Bearish Cross that may be followed by the eventual market bottom on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and an RSI value of 30.000.

So what is your opinion on this analysis? Do you think this Bear Cycle is the smoothest ever in Bitcoin's history and could we see a bottom on the 1W MA200 if the MA100 pair fails? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!




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