Bitcoin very short term, stay safe

Bitcoin is trading in range, and still following our plan A and B (plan C discarded, as we know). I give plan A 60% chance, plan B 40% chance
For those who are new on my analysis, plan A was for the last two months "9000 ---> 12000 ---> drop ---> 11000 ---> ~8150 ---> 16500 ---> ~8000". We are between "11000 ---> ~8150 ---> 60-80 000" waiting to see if this part is finished early at 8300$
Plan B was "9000 ---> 12000 ---> drop ---> 11000 ---> 4400 ---> range accumulation very low----> ????"
"????" means we will need to judge the new momentum of this new cycle


So... Short term


For now, we are still in a classic bear flag formation, that also looks like a wave 4 ABCDE wave pattern. This projects directly to either our target zone (7800 - 8150) or lower, depending on the pattern you choose. I will judge by then if we breakdown, depending on the momentum we have, and will be crucial in knowing if we are doing plan A or plan B
The flag is composed of two higher highs, two higher lows, than a new higher low that is kept below the bear flag medium line (see orange drawings)
These usually breakdown slowly after the 3rd higher low, bleeding a bit, then dropping suddently (here drop will start below 8700$)
HOWEVER, these flags usually don't display such bullish spikes. They can be result of high capital accounts messing around with bot signals to shake them out, as a retaliation of the last few weeks, where bot manipulation became rampant and overthrew slowly classic technical analysis, but there is no knowing for sure. Still, it doesn't change anything
In case of a breakup over 9500, we could see a small rally for a giant range up to 10800, tradding in a really choppy and trader-crushing pattern. Past that turbulent zone, either shorting can be resumed at 10400 - 10800 zone with stop loss, or bullishness up to 16500 over 11 000$ for following plan A (variant with 8300$ bottom instead of the projected 7800-8150$)

If we break upward, it lowers back the plan B chance by a lot. Plan B is invalidated above 11 000$ at the resistance break (the one everybody thought was already broken, but never was, since smart money never uses linear scale, only log scale... Actually, the 11 600$ drop to now happened the second we touched this logscale resistance)

Short red arrows, long green arrows. Use stop loss below the previous swing low/high for both, as market is unstable
Be safe

Comment:

Note that the first green arrow is particularely high risk, I don't recommand it unless you are an experienced trader, and is more for people that are already long from 8800$ from my previous analysis to know when to take profits

Comment:

Moved stop loss down to 9222, trade is looking very good. Took small partial profit to de-leverage myself. Risk free and in profit whatever happens

Small chance of a bounce now for a triple bottom. Mostly will be eaten alive by shorters as soon as it gets up, but if it goes up, the spike will be hard. This is why I moved my SL

Trade closed: target reached:

Took partial profits at 8200, we are near the 0.61 fib retracement. We could see a reversal if all of this was a giant Wave 2 (plan A)

Comment:

Closed 75% of the shorts, besides my "investment" short from over 11k to hedge my invested bitcoins, target almost reached, I think we will hit 7800. I will buy the bounce or short from higher

Will re open higher

Trade closed: target reached:

waiting for :
rebound + new bull ran for plan A (60% chance)
or
rebound + more down to 6k, bounce, and 4k4 for plan B (40%)

Will keep shorting at good prices

Comment:

if plan A, most probable is range trading, bouncing up, and then start a bull once near "the big" resistance from the 20 000$ top

if plan B, most probable is this :

Trade closed: target reached:

As I said, 7800 touched and even overextended to 7600 (7500 was the max to not invalidate plan A)

Sold the rebound right now just above 8230, and will wait to see how the range plays. I doubt any FOMO up, but it could be possible. Re opened a small short payed by the long bounce in case we recrash OR retest bottom

Comment:

for clarifications, most probable scenarii short term :

#btcusd
GREEN gets higher chance of unfolding plan A (bonus points for breaking 8k4 now)
RED gets higher chance of unfolding plan B (bonus points for breaking 7k8 now)

Comment:

Who's in Telegram or in Sumatardon's Chart-Attack chat knows that I closed my short on the big squeeze, sold my new long from 7950 at 8540, and opened a strong short later at 8540 too

Just took partial profits at 7900 and will leave the rest to run in case btc crashes down. Scenario evolution is about 40 / 40 / 20 % for respectively plan A, plan B, more range indecision between 7800 - 10 600

Comment:

short covered at the double bottom in case of plan A or mid term Range (total 60% probability)

Will reopen later in case we get a breakdown of the support or a rebound, higher

plan A is invalidated below 7500$ with a daily close, plan B is invalidated above 10600 with a daily close, range cannot last longer than the 22th march (time analysis)

Comment:

strong rejection of 7500 just before the daily close

BTC must hold 2 days above it to confirm the bottom, weakness sends us to plan B

Comment:

Short re opened at 8450

tight stop loss in case of plan A
Still trading plan B