It's easy to want to buy here. It appears that, regardless of reason (we don't want to speculate on individual reasoning here), buyers in the 30k+ area recently had the goal of either simply:
a) buying more when the price breaks above above the 65k area, a signal of strength
b) selling if the price is about to break below 30k into the 15-30k area, a signal of weakness
c) accumulating regardless of the price
I'd wager most traders are in the A/B "category" and not C. Traders doing C don't move the price, nor do they buy more as a response to price changes.
As long as we remain in the 30k-65k area, the price is random. Almost no traders were indecisive in the 15k-30k area post 2020, they bought decisively and quickly. But they ARE indecisive in the 30k-65k area. That probably means too much money flooded into the market, and not enough time elapsed first. Buyers were trapped above the original area where the crowd assumed they could accumulate over time (10-15k). Because of sudden buying, they were priced out and panicked. So they decided to buy time with money. Without more sudden buying (outcome A above), it's not totally crazy to think buyers could have a future chance to buy in the range they were originally waiting for before the 2020 FED bailout (sub 5k, outcome B). In other words, MORE time and LESS money. They were priced out of originally because of a sudden surge in money, and didn't have the time they thought they did. Even though another FED bailout is inevitable, I don't think it will happen immediately. Therefore, I would not expect a bailout until it happens, or until there is at least there is some evidence of easing rather than tightening. At the very least, wait to see the effects the FED Jawboning has before opening a large position. For these reasons, I do not expect another impulse wave of money, hence the impulse of money will collapse and an impulse of time will return, UNLESS we can get bullish momentum back (bottom of chart, green line above red line) and a sudden market rally, which I believe is certainly possible but is becoming increasingly unlikely. Imagine how generally uncomfortable recent sellers would be if we hit 65-75k right now in the face of the FED FUD and jawboning. This would be a huge upset and major upward capitulation will occur. But this upwards capitulation is certainly not likely unless we break this seemingly bearish momentum first. Traders are not sure whether the ground is made of lava or rock.
Anything can happen, but I hope you enjoy my rationality here as I think the candles are trying to give messages away, however cryptic the message may seem.
Many thanks to YOU for reading, and good luck! Don't forget to hedge your bets! :)
a) buying more when the price breaks above above the 65k area, a signal of strength
b) selling if the price is about to break below 30k into the 15-30k area, a signal of weakness
c) accumulating regardless of the price
I'd wager most traders are in the A/B "category" and not C. Traders doing C don't move the price, nor do they buy more as a response to price changes.
As long as we remain in the 30k-65k area, the price is random. Almost no traders were indecisive in the 15k-30k area post 2020, they bought decisively and quickly. But they ARE indecisive in the 30k-65k area. That probably means too much money flooded into the market, and not enough time elapsed first. Buyers were trapped above the original area where the crowd assumed they could accumulate over time (10-15k). Because of sudden buying, they were priced out and panicked. So they decided to buy time with money. Without more sudden buying (outcome A above), it's not totally crazy to think buyers could have a future chance to buy in the range they were originally waiting for before the 2020 FED bailout (sub 5k, outcome B). In other words, MORE time and LESS money. They were priced out of originally because of a sudden surge in money, and didn't have the time they thought they did. Even though another FED bailout is inevitable, I don't think it will happen immediately. Therefore, I would not expect a bailout until it happens, or until there is at least there is some evidence of easing rather than tightening. At the very least, wait to see the effects the FED Jawboning has before opening a large position. For these reasons, I do not expect another impulse wave of money, hence the impulse of money will collapse and an impulse of time will return, UNLESS we can get bullish momentum back (bottom of chart, green line above red line) and a sudden market rally, which I believe is certainly possible but is becoming increasingly unlikely. Imagine how generally uncomfortable recent sellers would be if we hit 65-75k right now in the face of the FED FUD and jawboning. This would be a huge upset and major upward capitulation will occur. But this upwards capitulation is certainly not likely unless we break this seemingly bearish momentum first. Traders are not sure whether the ground is made of lava or rock.
Anything can happen, but I hope you enjoy my rationality here as I think the candles are trying to give messages away, however cryptic the message may seem.
Many thanks to YOU for reading, and good luck! Don't forget to hedge your bets! :)