Good morning, traders. Man, the bears are extremely salty today as expected. Lots of narratives going around about why price jumped like it did and how it's just a bull trap to unload bags of BTC. The amount of garbage posting as legitimate TA in this space is almost unfathomable. If you've been following me, especially my daily videos, then you know why price moved like it did. It's been showing us for the past two months, but people are so entrenched in their bearish emotional bias that they refuse to see it. There is no difference between the herd in December 2017 and the herd today -- their targets just happen to be in opposite directions. As I mentioned would happen, bears have been arguing that there hasn't been a higher high this corrective cycle but now that there is one, they argue some other metric that "absolutely must be overcome to indicate that the bear market is over." And when that metric is overcome, they'll just post another metric. It's disbelief. I have been warning you since the corrective market began to be wary of becoming just another herd statistic. That being said, those with "bags" big enough to warrant such an asinine narrative as a "bull trap" at $4000 are not interested in selling such large quantities after a year long corrective cycle that has seen price drop in excess of 80%. What is the upside to doing so? To buy Bitcoin just a tiny bit cheaper? At what cost? The further price pushes down, the more difficult it becomes to continue doing so and the more likely you will see the market act in opposition. In other words, it costs a lot more to continue pushing it down AND the risk simultaneously increases so the risk/reward ratio continues diminishing and the return exponentially decreases in relation to percentage decrease in price. But, again, most who read this won't seek to understand because their emotional bias needs validation. For those of you that have recognized that bias, you likely rode that move up with me or, at the very least, adjusted the stoploss on your short and saved yourself a lot of money.
So where are we now? Yesterday I assumed the move up was completed and we were working on the retracement. Nothing has changed that view yet, though we are slightly in the red on our short at this time. If price continues higher, then we just notch a small loss and watch for the end of the upward move where we will attempt to short once more. I have been mentioning for a few months now that the $5300-$5500 level is a likely point of reversal if we broke through $4250/$4300 because of the supply present, so we could see price continue just a bit higher toward that area before commencing the retracement (what I believe will be wave 4). Price closed above the 200 day MA as I mentioned yesterday, in Discord and I believe on Twitter, that I wanted to see happen. The demand zone around $4400/$4500 makes it a logical place for the retracement to end, but the demand that has continued to pour into the pair could see the TR established between $4653 and $5080 producing a flat correction at that area before wave 5 begins rather than dipping back down into the demand zone. As such, the most important thing that I am watching at this time is the blue TR on the 1H TF. If we see price moving upward, out of that TR, with volume then we should be watching for price's reaction around the $5400/$5500 supply level. Until that point, I will be watching for a move back down toward the bottom of the TR and possibly below in the form of a Secondary Test and then potentially one more time as a Spring as this TR is likely re-accumulation but it's too early to know just yet.
Zooming out to the 1D chart helps bring about a much better overall perspective. We can see that yesterday's volume surpassed that which was seen during the first leg up in December. So we have expanding volume on increasing candle spread. Contrary to what the bears want you to believe, this is the footprint of demand. RSI is at/near the ascending channel's resistance, suggesting that the price appreciation is at/near the top for now. A retracement toward the demand zone mentioned above would likely allow RSI to cool off enough before the final leg up. Additionally, we can see the 200 day MA is currently sitting at $4600, so it's not far-fetched at all to suggest a wick down into that demand zone with the MA ultimately supporting price, especially when we consider that such a move would provide a 38% retracement as we usually expect for a wave 4. We have to watch what happens up here around $5000-$5100 first though. The 15 min RSI falling through the ascending dotted support will likely give us the first clue that price is potentially headed back to the bottom of the TR at least. A failure of that RSI's resistance to contain upward movement should alert us to possible continued price advance.
Twitter's @BitmexRekt is showing numerous liquidiations continually happening as a result of traders attempting to catch the top and bottom. On Twitter yesterday, I mentioned that many retail traders were now going to lose a lot of money doing exactly that so it doesn't come as any surprise. It is imperative that retail traders learn to stop being overly-anxious and wait for a trade to present itself rather than FOMOing in as they attempt to catch the highest and lowest prices.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
So where are we now? Yesterday I assumed the move up was completed and we were working on the retracement. Nothing has changed that view yet, though we are slightly in the red on our short at this time. If price continues higher, then we just notch a small loss and watch for the end of the upward move where we will attempt to short once more. I have been mentioning for a few months now that the $5300-$5500 level is a likely point of reversal if we broke through $4250/$4300 because of the supply present, so we could see price continue just a bit higher toward that area before commencing the retracement (what I believe will be wave 4). Price closed above the 200 day MA as I mentioned yesterday, in Discord and I believe on Twitter, that I wanted to see happen. The demand zone around $4400/$4500 makes it a logical place for the retracement to end, but the demand that has continued to pour into the pair could see the TR established between $4653 and $5080 producing a flat correction at that area before wave 5 begins rather than dipping back down into the demand zone. As such, the most important thing that I am watching at this time is the blue TR on the 1H TF. If we see price moving upward, out of that TR, with volume then we should be watching for price's reaction around the $5400/$5500 supply level. Until that point, I will be watching for a move back down toward the bottom of the TR and possibly below in the form of a Secondary Test and then potentially one more time as a Spring as this TR is likely re-accumulation but it's too early to know just yet.
Zooming out to the 1D chart helps bring about a much better overall perspective. We can see that yesterday's volume surpassed that which was seen during the first leg up in December. So we have expanding volume on increasing candle spread. Contrary to what the bears want you to believe, this is the footprint of demand. RSI is at/near the ascending channel's resistance, suggesting that the price appreciation is at/near the top for now. A retracement toward the demand zone mentioned above would likely allow RSI to cool off enough before the final leg up. Additionally, we can see the 200 day MA is currently sitting at $4600, so it's not far-fetched at all to suggest a wick down into that demand zone with the MA ultimately supporting price, especially when we consider that such a move would provide a 38% retracement as we usually expect for a wave 4. We have to watch what happens up here around $5000-$5100 first though. The 15 min RSI falling through the ascending dotted support will likely give us the first clue that price is potentially headed back to the bottom of the TR at least. A failure of that RSI's resistance to contain upward movement should alert us to possible continued price advance.
Twitter's @BitmexRekt is showing numerous liquidiations continually happening as a result of traders attempting to catch the top and bottom. On Twitter yesterday, I mentioned that many retail traders were now going to lose a lot of money doing exactly that so it doesn't come as any surprise. It is imperative that retail traders learn to stop being overly-anxious and wait for a trade to present itself rather than FOMOing in as they attempt to catch the highest and lowest prices.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
Comment:
Just to be clear, if we get that break on volume above the TR then based on the height of the TR, we should be looking at a $5500 target.
