Updated

BTCUSD short term view

Showing temporary weakness, as alts surge.

Green is continuation of uptrend,
orange is watchout with either stabilisation for few months with oscillations 10-20k or preparing a huge drop
red is end of wave3 of the cycle, and few months of consolidation or bear, depending on how deep it is

Trade active

Now watch for reversal or not

Note

After a good swing, Orange scenario most likely in play, for me, correction has a high chance of being over. Enter at your own risk, it is still risky to enter now, especially if you sold at 18300 like me

BCH target hit to the cent.

So what did we see yesterday? A miners power play and fomo of BCH, while sum of btc and bch somehow stayed around the same. Alts lost some value due to rally to bch.

Is it over ? Maybe not. But if it doesnt reverse soon, rsi will indicate weakness into cryptomarket

Note

I got asked about my BCH trade

for clarification, it means you can take profit of the trade/swing stack, but keep the hedging ! don't sell the rest. A power switch from btc to bch is possible, whatever the sect crusaders maximalists say. At least partially (split of the mining pool).

But for now, I see a retracement (btc up again, bch resting) once more, before the next transfer of funds

View big, stay frosty

Note

TP1 hit, also known as "better safe than sorry if i'm playing big, target", if correction is over, jump to 18300 expected (then rebuy at 17500 later), if correction continue, dump will happen now

Note

Good entry for a risky / reactive trader. If you do, put a strict stop loss below local swing low, because if it dumps, it will be hard, and altcoins, especially bch, are bleeding btc. This could set some panic

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Rebound is weak, I would recommend people to play safe and really, really, really check stop loss, or close at break-even right now at 16 350$

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I still expect a bit more the correction to be over, but "better safe than sorry". Risk reward is bad

Here is why : BCH is more likely to expand and rest a bit before doing anything else. Still possible, market is itchy, but lower than 50% chance. Best play is still to hedge every btc owned by equal amount of cash

Sum of both is still stable, so no cryptocrash for now in view

Note

And this is why we manage risks :

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If btc doesn't save itself soon, look at those entries

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Well, correction was faster than predicted, and thus deeper. I was expecting to do some more swings before 11k target, but eh... I was away from computer

Sold trade stack from yellow enter point, waiting for dust to settle as we are touching resistance. I expect some retracement of the rebound.

Note

Safe buy : around 8400$

Note

Green scenario completed

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Trade closed: target reached

More down possible, but be safe and start taking the majority of the profits if you haven't already on my other BTC USD update to go long at 9200$

if correction is over, we will see sideway with, at some point, a bull to break down channel. If not, you still had a huge profit

Nidalas

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Nidalas

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