Phi-Deltalytics

BTC Weekly Outlook (FA & TA)

Short
COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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Key Technicals:
1. RSI:
Daily RSI has signs of recovering. As suspected last week, the rise to 9.5k formed a RSI hidden bearish divergence. Even though RSI has broken above its MAs, a second test of MA as support is needed before turning short-term bullish . 2D RSI still trending bearish .

2. Support/Resistance:
Even though we broke above the EMAs in the past week, the upward momentum was not accompanied by volume . Same is true for some resistance break out ideas out there. Some analysts argue we are currently at key supports, which is true. However, with the many bullish daily candle formations getting us close to zero upward momentum, these key support zones are weakening. This means the downward channel still holds with BTC likely trapped below the EMAs for the coming weeks.

3. Wave developments:
We modified the sub-wave counts this week. However, the main idea stays the same – 5 Elliot wave to the upside is now finished and we are traveling in the corrective wave formation to the downside. We’ve got some feedback regarding the wave 5 looking like part of wave 4 development. However, we do believe BTC see a lot of truncated 5th waves. Just look at the 14k top, which ends with the strongest move to the upside. For a detailed count, see below:

Key Fundamentals:
1. CME:
CME institutional traders’ net position remains similar to the level in mid-February 2020 (the BTC price peak before "black Thursday" 40% drop ), and it has been dropping significantly since BTC attempted 10k. For a short-term break above 10k scenario to work, we would like to see the institutional net positions reversing to an increasing trend.
2. Smart money action:
The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs (long-term).
3. Miner action:
Both hash rate and difficulty are recovering, and miner capitulation is ending. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign.
4. Overall Market Sentiment:
For the entire BTC holding, the overall market sentiment is net long with low interest. BTC has seen more bull runs after periods of low volatility , and a deeper correction might be exactly what’s needed to give the market enough strength to continue to long-term bull trend.
5. Seller Group Only Market Sentiment (SOPR):
This group continues to sell in profit, indicating a long-term bullish trend .

Do you think BTC will turn bullish in the short-term? Do you agree with our analysis? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!

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More on BTC long-term perspectives and August rally ahead:
https://phidelta.substack.com/p/forecast-7-relief-rally
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