BTC: Institutions Not Convinced of Bullishness Yet

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BTC’s recent lack of market interest is leading to a concerning drop in the CME open interest money flow index. The last two times this index dropped below 30 is correlated with at least 3 months of BTC corrections.

The bottom indicator in the chart above shows the net position for CME institutional traders over time. This includes both the leveraged fund positions and the asset manager positions on CME. Even though CME displays other trader categories, we find the institutional traders’ behavior most reliable.

Currently, CME institutional traders’ net position remains similar to the level in mid-February 2020 (the BTC price peak before "black Thursday" 40% drop), and it has been dropping significantly since BTC attempted 10k. For a short-term break above 10k scenario to work, we would like to see the institutional net positions reversing to an increasing trend.

Are you currently a bull or a bear on BTC? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!

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