So Bitcoin has finally broken above the 6K level on all the major exchanges. I originally thought this move could cause a lot of stop buy orders to be activated, which I thought had a chance of sending Bitcoin up towards 6.8K, 7.5K, or even higher in the medium term before finally making a bigger correction. We're ALMOST at my second target from the long setup that I posted back in mid-January (green X), but I think we can simply start falling now. We also have a significant bearish divergence forming on the daily RSI.
We're back to pre-November sell-off levels with the same situation: No buyers above 6K (so far), exhibited by low volume. Unless the situation changes, I think it's possible we see a substantial drop here. The market actually looks significantly WORSE, since many altcoins are at new lows on their ratios with no buyers to be seen. As I've been mentioning over and over again recently, this is fine as long as their USD values remain intact. But since I'm starting to lean more towards a Bitcoin drop, it could cause huge damage to the altcoin market, unless money starts flowing back into some of those coins from Bitcoin. Altcoins are starting to lose their USD uptrends (NEO and XLM, for instance) - and those two have often been indicators of market trends. I think altcoins would have had to start rising a little sooner for the market to look healthy overall. That's just my opinion though. Perhaps I'll be pleasantly surprised.
The total market cap still has some room for downside (towards 150 Billion) before it meets the long term support. Overt the last day or so, when Bitcoin broke above 6K, the total market cap did not increase. This is a bad sign.
The total market cap WITHOUT Bitcoin looks much worse, and is now starting to break below the long term trendline it has held since 2015:
This means that we could be in for at least another leg down, even though I don't want to believe it to be the case. I'm just writing about what I'm seeing. Of course, my view will change if we start to see some more convincing market-wide buying...but that still hasn't happened and time is running out for bulls. I WANT to be pleasantly surprised because I love cryptocurrencies. I want to be wrong here.
If Bitcoin Begins dropping, the targets would be as follows:
5000-5200
4600-4800
4100-4200
3600-3700
3000-3100
2600-2800
1800-2000
1000-1200
We'd have to see how price would react to these potential zones. I kept a lot of descending lines on this chart because I want to see how price also would react to those previously broken resistances.
This is not financial advice. This is for speculative and educational purposes only.
-Victor Cobra
We're back to pre-November sell-off levels with the same situation: No buyers above 6K (so far), exhibited by low volume. Unless the situation changes, I think it's possible we see a substantial drop here. The market actually looks significantly WORSE, since many altcoins are at new lows on their ratios with no buyers to be seen. As I've been mentioning over and over again recently, this is fine as long as their USD values remain intact. But since I'm starting to lean more towards a Bitcoin drop, it could cause huge damage to the altcoin market, unless money starts flowing back into some of those coins from Bitcoin. Altcoins are starting to lose their USD uptrends (NEO and XLM, for instance) - and those two have often been indicators of market trends. I think altcoins would have had to start rising a little sooner for the market to look healthy overall. That's just my opinion though. Perhaps I'll be pleasantly surprised.
The total market cap still has some room for downside (towards 150 Billion) before it meets the long term support. Overt the last day or so, when Bitcoin broke above 6K, the total market cap did not increase. This is a bad sign.
The total market cap WITHOUT Bitcoin looks much worse, and is now starting to break below the long term trendline it has held since 2015:
This means that we could be in for at least another leg down, even though I don't want to believe it to be the case. I'm just writing about what I'm seeing. Of course, my view will change if we start to see some more convincing market-wide buying...but that still hasn't happened and time is running out for bulls. I WANT to be pleasantly surprised because I love cryptocurrencies. I want to be wrong here.
If Bitcoin Begins dropping, the targets would be as follows:
5000-5200
4600-4800
4100-4200
3600-3700
3000-3100
2600-2800
1800-2000
1000-1200
We'd have to see how price would react to these potential zones. I kept a lot of descending lines on this chart because I want to see how price also would react to those previously broken resistances.
This is not financial advice. This is for speculative and educational purposes only.
-Victor Cobra
Comment:
Clarifying again: IF Bitcoin can hold above 6K and alts start to increase again, I will lean bullish.
Comment:
So Bitcoin has actually made it up to my second target near 6.4K! How about that! Feeling slightly better today, but I’m still going to wait to see what happens with altcoins before changing my view. If Bitcoin can break this zone, 6.8K would be the next target, followed by 7.4-7.5K. If you read my other recent Bitcoin posts, that’s an area I’m looking for a potential blow off top.
Comment:
The most bullish view of the market I see is Bitcoin stabilizing here for a while or pushing higher to drop and stabilize well above 6K. This would give a chance for the alt market to catch up.
Comment:
So obviously this idea has been invalidated, since Bitcoin broke back above 6.8K and into its long term bullish channel. Video update soon.
