Another week is over and another month is over, it's time to look; what has happened and what can happen in the future.
We have a Monthly candle close, a month which was full of emotions. Some top altcoins were very stable meanwhile BTC got pumped pretty heavily & etc. A lot of positive news, a lot of interest in Crypto, especially Bitcoin - to be said, interest in the Crypto assets has been never so high. Fundamentally everything looks great and the future looks bright, technically it doesn't look as good it looks fundamentally, especially short-term or even mid-term, anyways let's start:
Monthly timeframe:
5 months in the row the Bitcoin price has climbed upwards (5 green candles). Historically, it has shown a couple of times six months climb but "recently" 5 months has been maximum. So, July can be the month where the BTC price makes a throwback and we have also a visual similarities whit the ATH candle which has occurred in December 2017:
Basically, technical analysis and candles are based on human psychology, that's why we can rely on certain patterns. Currently, we see small similarity compared with Dec. 2018, which will indicate that end of the July we may see a red candle close, plus the Fibonacci golden ratio supporting that prementioned similarity. The rejection came from the 62% Fibo retracement level and we should all know that historically, BTC loves that level. Multiple pullbacks/throwbacks have ended exactly on this Fibo level.
Weekly timeframe:
Let's dig into the Monthly candle - Weekly chart:
The price action on Monthly timeframe wasn't so ugly as it is on the Weekly. As I mentioned the rejection came from the Fibonacci level, plus the rejection came from the strong price level which stays between $11,600 - $13,600 (blue area on the picture). The strong area has worked multiple times as a support level and as a resistance level. Only two big candles, up and down, has managed to break this level. Last week, it worked perfectly as a resistance level. The rejection from ~$13,800 ended inside the downwards channel (pulled on the line chart to remove market noise) and here comes the first difference compared with ATH price action, the last Weekly candle close gave us a bearish candlestick pattern called "Gravestone Doji".
If we add those reversal criteria, if we add those price levels where the rejection came then we should get a pretty good short, mid-term sell setup but wait for it, we need confirmations and we need those on the shorter timeframes. Let's skip Daily timeframe because it is not so informative and interesting, let's jump straight into the 4H chart.
4H timeframe, current price action:
What do we know?
- Fundamentally and interest vise, we are mid-term bullish but the market can't "fly" all the time, it has to make some throwbacks so...
- We have a throwback similarity compared with the previous ATH rally.
- We have a rejection from technically a strong area $11,600 - $13,600
- This rejection gave us a bearish candlestick pattern called "Gravestone Doji"
Technically, and fundamentally a bit mixed signs but luckily the price has drawn a pretty good pattern which can support both biases. Obviously, the move gets confirmed after the breakout from the pattern, after the 4H candle close above or below of it.
The mentioned pattern is "Descending Triangle":
Fundamental bias breakout gets confirmed after the candle close above the triangle upper trendline (counter trendline) and above the blue horizontal line - $11,433.
It has started to form also a Double Bottom chart pattern:
Chart pattern itself should start to work after the neckline breakout (blue dotted line) but currently, the bounce is supported with the trendline, with the EMA100, with previously worked support levels and Gravestone Doji has a lot of "free space" between close and the top. The price can go and fill some part of that so, the move upwards gets confirmed after the 4H candle close above $11,433 and the first target stays between $12,000 - $12,500.
Technical bias gets confirmed after the breakout below the Descending Triangle and price vise - a 4H candle close below the $10,500.
As you see, the green arrows are a little bit more transparent than red arrows. This is because of the technical bias and this is because the Descending Triangle is a bearish pattern. Yes, it is a triangle and it has both direction breakout opportunities BUT more reliable is a breakout downwards. The first target is not far because we can't forget that the strong resistance from May 2018 may act as a support, plus there are some reversal price action criteria like Fibo, round number. Overall, the bearish direction can easily look like I have shown on the image and the last downwards target is around $8,500.
SUMMARY:
- "Fundamental bias" breakout gets confirmed after a 4H candle close above the triangle upper trendline (counter trendline) and above the blue horizontal line - $11,433.
- "Technical bias" gets confirmed after the breakout below the Descending Triangle and price vise - a 4H candle close below the $10,500.
Do your own research and if this matching with mine then you are ready to go!
Please, take a second and support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You!
Best regards,
Vaido
We have a Monthly candle close, a month which was full of emotions. Some top altcoins were very stable meanwhile BTC got pumped pretty heavily & etc. A lot of positive news, a lot of interest in Crypto, especially Bitcoin - to be said, interest in the Crypto assets has been never so high. Fundamentally everything looks great and the future looks bright, technically it doesn't look as good it looks fundamentally, especially short-term or even mid-term, anyways let's start:
Monthly timeframe:
5 months in the row the Bitcoin price has climbed upwards (5 green candles). Historically, it has shown a couple of times six months climb but "recently" 5 months has been maximum. So, July can be the month where the BTC price makes a throwback and we have also a visual similarities whit the ATH candle which has occurred in December 2017:
Weekly timeframe:
Let's dig into the Monthly candle - Weekly chart:
If we add those reversal criteria, if we add those price levels where the rejection came then we should get a pretty good short, mid-term sell setup but wait for it, we need confirmations and we need those on the shorter timeframes. Let's skip Daily timeframe because it is not so informative and interesting, let's jump straight into the 4H chart.
4H timeframe, current price action:
What do we know?
- Fundamentally and interest vise, we are mid-term bullish but the market can't "fly" all the time, it has to make some throwbacks so...
- We have a throwback similarity compared with the previous ATH rally.
- We have a rejection from technically a strong area $11,600 - $13,600
- This rejection gave us a bearish candlestick pattern called "Gravestone Doji"
Technically, and fundamentally a bit mixed signs but luckily the price has drawn a pretty good pattern which can support both biases. Obviously, the move gets confirmed after the breakout from the pattern, after the 4H candle close above or below of it.
The mentioned pattern is "Descending Triangle":
Fundamental bias breakout gets confirmed after the candle close above the triangle upper trendline (counter trendline) and above the blue horizontal line - $11,433.
It has started to form also a Double Bottom chart pattern:
Technical bias gets confirmed after the breakout below the Descending Triangle and price vise - a 4H candle close below the $10,500.
As you see, the green arrows are a little bit more transparent than red arrows. This is because of the technical bias and this is because the Descending Triangle is a bearish pattern. Yes, it is a triangle and it has both direction breakout opportunities BUT more reliable is a breakout downwards. The first target is not far because we can't forget that the strong resistance from May 2018 may act as a support, plus there are some reversal price action criteria like Fibo, round number. Overall, the bearish direction can easily look like I have shown on the image and the last downwards target is around $8,500.
SUMMARY:
- "Fundamental bias" breakout gets confirmed after a 4H candle close above the triangle upper trendline (counter trendline) and above the blue horizontal line - $11,433.
- "Technical bias" gets confirmed after the breakout below the Descending Triangle and price vise - a 4H candle close below the $10,500.
Do your own research and if this matching with mine then you are ready to go!
Please, take a second and support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You!
Best regards,
Vaido
Comment:
Okay, yesterday we got that movement which is shown above on the major image - we got 4H candle close below the triangle and then the first target 10k. Secondly, the triangle bottom "trendline" worked nicely as resistance and retest were successful - the price got a rejection.
Now the price following that shown arrow, this move has actually made yesterday but now we touching more clearly those Fibo levels, which should work as supports. We may see another $200-$300 bounce here but let's see. Definitely, the down pressure is pretty high and if the current 4H candle gets a close below the $10k then there are higher chances to go down to the 9k!
Regards!
Regards!
Comment:
New BTC Analysis - A Possible Bounce Area:
Do not to forget to support my effort! ;)
Best regards,
Vaido
Best regards,
Vaido
Regards!