Chris_Inks

BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (3/15/2019)

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Good morning, traders. As mentioned yesterday, price finally started moving upward overnight, but a small H4 gap at $3854.77 now remains. We have a recent clean break of the H4 RSI ascending triangle and have met resistance, once more, at the top of the local TR at around $3900. H1 RSI is just now hitting overbought, but I am still looking for an initial move up to the $3940/50 level with a secondary move up to the $4150/60 level. Traders need to remain mindful of the $4050 level along the way, however. H4 RSI may print hidden bearish divergence if price does not breach $3903.98 within the next couple of hours. The time frame across that divergence is less than a day, though, so we shouldn't expect a large movement down in response if it does print. RSI is bullish at 60.3 and MACD has finally crossed bullishly back over centerline. Price remains above the H4 21 EMA and is now cleanly above the HVN as well.

Daily RSI is targeting the nearby resistance level at 58 and a close above 61 should have the MACD crossing bullishly. The upper blue horizontal price line is the major resistance level needed to be overcome by price. As mentioned in a previous analysis, price has surpassed that level three times since December but then fallen back below it within a week. The consolidation at/above the HVN suggests preparation for a pop upward which would be inline with our expectations of those higher targets.

If further movement to the downside occurs, then I would want to see the February 27th swing low hold at $3658.19. What this means is that I don't want to see a daily close below that. A wick below and close above would print a bullish SFP and signal likely upward price progression once again. If this were to play out, it would be a strong liquidity grab to fuel that price appreciation. Prior to that point, I would want to see the H4 March 8th swing low at $3760.10 hold.

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