BTCUSD – Head & Shoulders Formation, Gameover for Bitcoin?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The trend of Bitcoin never stops to intrigue me and I am equally surprised that no other author has made any TA on this possibility. In this case, let me be the first to break the news to you.

Recent price action suggests that we might see a Head and Shoulders ( H&S ) pattern formation like the one I have illustrated by end of the week. To understand why I said this, let us zoom in on Bitcoin to see what is likely going to happen over the near term.

From the 30 minute chart above, we can see that price has broke out north of the triangle. If the full breakout plays out, price would likely end up close to 6850, potentially forming the right shoulder of the suggested H&S pattern. Coincidentally, the left shoulder’s peak is at 6839.

In my recently-updated long term forecast titled “BTCUSD – Countdown to SEC ETF Decision (10K Target)” that was posted 3 days ago, I had mentioned that Bitcoin would likely consolidate below the 6800-level over the next 2-3 weeks. This means that even if Bitcoin rises to 6850, I do not expect price to hold above 6800 which I believe is the highest point of its sideways consolidation range. Alternatively, if price gets to a mere 6700 without breaking above 6800 resistance, it would still be close enough to form the right shoulder.

Of course, if Bitcoin decides to continue its uptrend to the moon after reclaiming its rocket launch pedestal at 6800, I would eagerly and willingly invalidate this H&S forecast but I bet the bears won’t just sit there and do nothing, especially when a huge bearish pattern is right within their grasp.

Now what happens if this H&S forecast plays out? A full potential breakout of the bullish-to-bearish pattern would shove Bitcoin down to the succulent 3600 price level and at the same time invalidate my long-term quarterly forecast.

Do I think it’s going to happen? Very unlikely.

Tell me, what signal would Bitcoin be sending to the SEC and the financial world if it crashes big time on the eve of its biggest ETF frenzy to date? It just doesn’t add up. Furthermore, it would be insane for anyone to believe that Bitcoin can crash to 3000 in the next few weeks and then shoot up to 10000 by the end of September in anticipation of CBOE’s ETF . To me, this is just crazy talk and it only serves to prove that Bitcoin is not mature enough to be worthy of the US markets or the world’s for that matter.

So for now, we can safely assume that Bitcoin is just consolidating sideways as described in my long-term quarterly forecast.

Here is a list of ETF deadlines for your convenience:

1) ProShares: August 23
2) GraniteShares ETF: September 15
3) Direxion ETF: September 21
4) SolidX-VanEck ETF ( CBOE ): September 30

CBOE's ETF has the highest probability of approval.

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Good luck and happy trading!

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Comment: Just found out that some good traders have also posted their H&S forecast earlier than me. Nevertheless, my views are unique so I hope mine would give you balance in this developing possibility.
Comment: This is to address those who believe that a H&S pattern could only be formed in trend reversal. A continuation H&S pattern could be formed when a continuation trend forms an inverse H&S, like the one suggested in my chart. Furthermore, nothing is set in stone yet as the trend may or may not complete the right shoulder formation. Happy trading!