The last dance for Bitcoin (21 - 31 May 2021)

Quick analysis on Bitcoin for the coming week: a very volatile and choppy market is to be expected from here with prices tapping high and lows frequently to shake out as many leverage traders as possible. So be very cautious with your trading!

I expect the market to test previous lows of around 50-54K by the end of next week in order to get a fat rejection there as many people will opt to sell there. For bag holders out there I think its wise to sell in the sell zone (see chart) and not enter the market before we bottomed out. I do not see any future for Bitcoin anymore, so long term holding does not make sense in my(!) opinion - I explained why many times before (check my previous posts linked below). I know 99% of the people find this ridiculous and think BTC will go (for sure) to 100K and beyond; I personally believe that chance is about 1-10% and a sub 20K Bitcoin (which effectively breaks an all time uptrend) is about 90%. Most people will disagree and that's fine, they did so aswell when I sold my BTC at 64K and warned everyone for a potential cycle top.

So where are we right now? Currently I am looking for the market to trade against the bearish sentiment and pick up momentum over the weekend and next week. Moving into psychological phases and price ranges: hope (blue), optimism (orange), hype (potentially green zone if we make it there, a big if!) and lastly reality will kick in when the futures expire next week. It is very much to be seen what scenario is most beneficial for the market maker - given we just started the bear market; we need to see if higher prices are still in favor or not. I personally think for the immediate short term (next 7 days) they are. I expect BTC to trade inside the big wedge for the coming week to (at some point) break support and fall towards the red targets and beyond. Currently we are in neutral territory with a bearish sentiment. A definitive break above the purple trend line which acted as support since 2019 will see the short term bullish scenario play out. A break below the wedge is game over. To conclude; I expect BTC to test 42-46K and if we find support we will test 50K, if support we will test 54K; if any of these levels gets rejected strongly we will find support at the red targets. The rest of May is neutral and slightly bullish in my opinion (regardless of the market sentiment) and once we hit the sell zone; we could (and most likely will) see a big correction leading us to a new trading zone between 30 and 40K. So; short term: bounce, long term: very bearish. (check all my previous BTC analyses with the links below)

IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.

Comment:

BTC DUMP: stock market is crashing and US investors are taking a run for money... I have to check the balance of shorts vs longs on the CME futures. I thought there were more shorts but if not; BTC and the whole crypto market is doomed for much lower price levels. (If anyone knows the long/short ratio, let us know in the comments)

Comment:

WARNING: this dump is real, selling pressure is immense. No bottom is to be found right now and even the market maker cant stop the selling... Do I think you should sell now? Mwah, selling on dumps is never good UNLESS you are still in profit. Lets see if we can find a recovery zone.

Comment:

Recovery zone is in, exactly where we anticipated in the red zones. The hope phase has begun, also pretty much exactly aligned with the chart. So; we can be hopeful for a decent recovery if we break 39,6K and 40,9K; in order to hold above 39,6K at least. Then we have severe resistance at 42K that needs to be broken in order to get to the optimistic phase. Again, any real rejection will bring us back in the red zones and possibly beyond. Still I stick to my analysis as described above with a short term bounce.

Comment:

Bitcoin below the wedge! No sign of a relief rally, looking very very weak. No buyers to be found this weekend. Breaking the orange trendline will lead us to around 30K. We will know more in the next 24 hours.

Comment:

We entered the hype phase after seeing a bullish trend throughout the optimism phase. We either make it to 46K or get rejected now at 40/42K. Personally I think we're bullish until the weekend. I'm looking out for Saturday's or Sunday's dump.

Comment:

BTC UPDATE: futures expirations are here! Just look how beautiful this chart played out. I drew a wedge without any reference and it touched it as support and as resistance after. Also, pivot point was spot on and has been respected everytime... I expect a retest of the 37,5K zone and a further downtrend where BTC will drop off this chart.

Comment:

UPDATE: DONE, reality is here, exactly as projected. We are going to a new zone: 20-30K. Initial bottom target: 21K, check my latest posts...