Bitcoin from Jan 2019, to Keep Bears Objective and Bull Hopeful

I posted this chart a few times the past month and started to post it in Jan at the 3400 low. Back than the market was once again so bearish, that i tried to give another objective perspective to where we might be at that point. I know most crypto people have not seen enough charts in their live to know this, therefore i made this post to show several other markets. In this case all FX charts, but i could have shown others as well, no matter which market. I's just how markets work. When a low a set, we just usually see a re test of that support/low. You have to see it like, the market knows it's weak and bearish, but it wants and NEEDS to test again if there are still more sellers than possible buyers in the market at the same lows. With this i mean the Dec low, the rally that followed and than testing the 3350/3400 lows again to see how the market will respond.

As mentioned in Jan, i could not say if it would be a simple ABC to like 4200/4600 or that we would see an impulse wave (12345) to 5K/6K prices. You just can't know upfront, whoever tells you they can, is simply making an subjective assumption. What i mentioned back then and in my normal Bitcoin analysis, we need to see how the market will perform during the way up. If we would see a big rally straight through the 4600ish (which was my key level between bear and bull market on the mid-term), an impulse wave would be much more likely. If we would see a slow rally through 4200 and see it slow down until like 4600, than an ABC would be much more likely.

You just can't know this upfront, because you can't know what the markets intentions are at the start. But you can make a good/decent assumption when seeing certain rallies. Based on those signs, you can judge how strong or weak the market is. With those facts, you can still not be sure of anything, but at least your assumption will have some real foundation.


A part of the previous analysis:

There have been so many people telling me that a break of the 4200 was almost impossible the past weeks and to be honest, it was taking a lot of time to break up so it was far from easy to think it will break the 4200. Again, all had very compelling reasons even towards me. Each time i would simply look back at these charts and would look at them and think okay, they are right, volume is crap, moves are slow, taking a lot of time, no conviction, bearish indicators and many more. But then when looking at the game plan i had prepared 2 months ago and the charts and movements, i would simply tell myself okay:

A) Did something weird happen since the Feb low? No, we got rejection again at 4200 as suggested simply to make a higher low and attack the 4200 again. Of course the past 2 weeks it was not easy to to think the 4200 would break, but the past days before the break up, there were several signs indicating the chances were increasing, as mentioned in my BTC' analysis.
B) How is sentiment, bearish or bullish? What i could see on TV and from comments and my own groups, it was mostly bearish , so that was actually even perfect.
C) I can continue with more of these things but i won't, think you get the picture.



If you find this interesting, i recommend to read the previous chapters as well of the: Bitcoin long term ABC examples. You can find them here below.


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