Guys. It's pretty simple. There was a lot of dumb money in the market. A LOT! It needed to be flushed out at some point. I knew it would be. That's why I sold at 55k when I saw we were breaking the neckline in our H&S pattern (see "Link to Related Ideas" below).
Our target down from there ended up being this trendline. Boom! We hit it precisely on the money. Totally expected. The FUD continues. We may sit on the trendline for a bit longer but I don't expect us to drop below. You should be careful not to over-leverage. You should save some cash reserves. But me personally? I have taken most of my cash and have aggressively bought this fear up with the same enthusiasm that I did when BTC hit $4.6K!
As long as we remain above this line, I am HUGELY BULLISH. This is not a bear market. Period!
Don't let them whales steal all your coins!
Happy trading.
Our target down from there ended up being this trendline. Boom! We hit it precisely on the money. Totally expected. The FUD continues. We may sit on the trendline for a bit longer but I don't expect us to drop below. You should be careful not to over-leverage. You should save some cash reserves. But me personally? I have taken most of my cash and have aggressively bought this fear up with the same enthusiasm that I did when BTC hit $4.6K!
As long as we remain above this line, I am HUGELY BULLISH. This is not a bear market. Period!
Don't let them whales steal all your coins!
Happy trading.
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For clarification's sake, when I say broken, I mean that it must close below the line once on the daily and then confirm. Confirmation would be a second close below the line on the daily.
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And here's where/how/when this trendline originated:
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Below is the H&S pattern mentioned:
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Yes. It is still possible we test the $24224 level. That is why I set my sell stops. Just in case I am wrong. And so should you.
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We now have an ascending wedge (bearish) which also is acting as a bear flag on the 4hr chart. We have broken down out of that and are only held up by the 50ma. I suspect we could drop again to test our trendline (at least).
Again, it is also still possible to drop to that 25k mark. Be safe. Reserve cash. Set your stops.
Happy trading all.
We now have an ascending wedge (bearish) which also is acting as a bear flag on the 4hr chart. We have broken down out of that and are only held up by the 50ma. I suspect we could drop again to test our trendline (at least).
Again, it is also still possible to drop to that 25k mark. Be safe. Reserve cash. Set your stops.
Happy trading all.
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UPDATE: We've hit our target down from the ascending wedge! Any guesses where our target down ended up being? :-)
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BTW: Just because we remain above the line, does NOT mean I am all in. Yes, I still remain bullish above the line, but the closer we approach to our line the more cautious I become in portfolio size.
For example: At the line, as we are today, I am about 50/50. 50% cash/50% crypto. Below the line cash increases. Further above the line crypto increase (depending upon worthwhile technical setups).
I approach trading by giving equal amount of respect to the possibility that my perspective could be wrong, off, or that I am just missing something.
I do expect the line to hold ...for now. But what happens if the FED decides it must raise interest rates in mid-June? What then? Can Bitcoin hold it's value? I don't know. That part remains a big unknown. Always prepare for these unknowns. Trade with caution. Don't over-leverage. Have spare cash. Set your stops.
Peace, love, and happy trading!
For example: At the line, as we are today, I am about 50/50. 50% cash/50% crypto. Below the line cash increases. Further above the line crypto increase (depending upon worthwhile technical setups).
I approach trading by giving equal amount of respect to the possibility that my perspective could be wrong, off, or that I am just missing something.
I do expect the line to hold ...for now. But what happens if the FED decides it must raise interest rates in mid-June? What then? Can Bitcoin hold it's value? I don't know. That part remains a big unknown. Always prepare for these unknowns. Trade with caution. Don't over-leverage. Have spare cash. Set your stops.
Peace, love, and happy trading!
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Line HODL
Line HODL
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I am expecting maybe one more touch of our line to flush out any remaining sellers. And then we move onwards and upwards, in my view.
I am expecting maybe one more touch of our line to flush out any remaining sellers. And then we move onwards and upwards, in my view.
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Since I first posted this, I have been watching my idea closely on the 4 hr. chart. Although, it's very possible that we could break this trendline and sink further down, my charts are telling this will probably not happen. We have touched our trendline dozens of times on the 4 hr chart and in every instance our trendline has proven to be strong support. Unless and until we break below this trendline, we are still very much in a bull market. I really don't see this changing until Bitcoin hits 100k sometime in late 2021 or early 2022.
One exception: Fed moves to increase interest rates. This could throw all kinds of monkey wrenches into the equation. Watch closely and always hope for the best but prepare for the worst. If 2020 has taught us anything, it is that anything is possible.
Happy trading all.
Since I first posted this, I have been watching my idea closely on the 4 hr. chart. Although, it's very possible that we could break this trendline and sink further down, my charts are telling this will probably not happen. We have touched our trendline dozens of times on the 4 hr chart and in every instance our trendline has proven to be strong support. Unless and until we break below this trendline, we are still very much in a bull market. I really don't see this changing until Bitcoin hits 100k sometime in late 2021 or early 2022.
One exception: Fed moves to increase interest rates. This could throw all kinds of monkey wrenches into the equation. Watch closely and always hope for the best but prepare for the worst. If 2020 has taught us anything, it is that anything is possible.
Happy trading all.
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The fact that we remain above our trendline right now, is a very good indicator on how the Fed will decide today regarding interest rates. It tells us that the FED will NOT raise interest rates today. Inflation will continue unimpeded and the perceived value of Bitcoin will continue to rise resultantly.
IMO, you should all be continuing to load up on crypto, especially, once it is confirmed that the FED will NOT raise rates.
Happy trading all!
IMO, you should all be continuing to load up on crypto, especially, once it is confirmed that the FED will NOT raise rates.
Happy trading all!
Trade closed manually:
Back above our line! Let the bulls run!
Closing out this post. More to come.
Closing out this post. More to come.
Stewdamus Trades -
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Prophesying the price action of markets one chart at a time.
Crypto predictions, targets, how-tos, and much, much more!
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