Those who have been following me on twitter probably know that I am a big fan of the L/S ratio, but there are times where it isn't useful like I said yesterday. After the big short squeeze there was a clear arbitrage opportunity. People could either arbitrage the gap by buying Tether directly or by shorting on Bitfinex and longing spot elsewhere. That means that many of these short positions were most likely hedged. The fact that many longs positions closed, doesn’t mean that people who were long didn’t withdraw their money in BTC or ALTS and keep it in BTC (essentially remain long but out of that Bitfinex). Usually after a massive squeeze that is set up by big players, the market moves in the other direction. It also seems that once everyone starts trusting and looking at the L/S ratio, it 'doesn't' work, until it drops lower (0.5 would be perfect) or until next time when everyone believes it doesn't work.
I am still very bullish for the next 2-3 months, yet I am prepared for a dip down to 5750-5950. Personally I wouldn’t short here and wouldn’t sell my alts. I have cash ready to buy the dip or a breakout
Full analysis below:
The L/S ratio just hit its 1+ year low, which is something that can’t be ignored regardless of the situation. (Bullish)
The GBTC/BTC ratio hit ‘support’ and even fell below 1 (Bullish)
TurtleBC’s market buy percentage is currently at 14% slowly creeping up. Since May it has gone below 5% 3 times (Slightly bullish)
Altcoins marketcap dropped 86%, even though 3.5% of it at that point was stablecoins and many more shitcoins have been added since the January top. The bottom came 248 days after the top. In 2014 the altcoin market dropped 84% in 256 days. (Bullish)
Most small cap altcoins look incredibly bullish too. 2 months in accumulation. But remember that many time accumulation zones end with a dip to trap bears and then move higher (cc Mr Wyckoff haha) (first bearish, then bullish).
Bitcoin 2014 bearish fractal shows that Bitcoin should hit 4.8k by October 22nd. For now it seems far fetched and my interpretation along with other time analysis I’ve done, we are due for a final drop and then pump.
Seasonality shows a similar thing. Bitcoin could drop anywhere from 10-25% from here and then go up based on this analysis
Bitcoin fundamental analysis here
+ The Liquid sidechain which is also a big game changer for Bitcoin’s liquidity. Different analysis will follow.
CNBC’s Long trade (counter-trading it)
twitter.com/lowstrif.../1050194406324690945 twitter.com/Indicato.../1052989050112610306
CNBC has 2 trades left open with final stop at 5950, which is at the perfect place for a stop hunt. 3 stops taken out once that level is hit and all their open trades are lost. In my honest opinion CNBC is one of the big players in this market with some great analysts. They just won’t tell you what they really think, but the exact opposite. (Yes seriously, Very bearish)
But this isn’t just because of CNBC. On the 11th things got messed up because of Bitfinex and there was no proper stop hunt. Only on some derivatives did we touch 6k and below. Was a simple stop hunt below 6100 but to me this isn’t enough.
Network activity (compared to price – NVT) is really low (Bearish)
When the gap between Bitfinex and other spot exchanges was going up, it was bullish. Now that it is closing is bearish. (Bearish)
CME gaps at 6140 and 6420 (bearish as the lowest one could be filled after the one at 6420).
Most people believe this is the bottom. Majority tends to be wrong. But majority tends to change its opinion once we get near 6k, let alone below it. (first bearish then bullish again hahaha)
The drop happening during the weekend would be ideal as less people could deposit. Most would have to wait until Tuesday for their deposits to hit.
My Bitfinex-Tether index is holding an important zone but looks insanely weak...
2 important dates to note: 24th full moon, 26th CME futures expiration. Full moon usually bearish, while expiration bullish
Finally 5850-5950 is also the best support and S2 Weekly and Monthly combo. Perfection! People keep saying support gets weaker with every touch! And i agree! 100%. But which is that support they are talking about? 5750-5850? 5750-5950? 5750-6050? 5750-6150? OR 5750-8000? i'd say regardless of how you see it the support has been touched 4-5 MAX and each time we got a really good bounce. Buyers in that zone don't seem exhausted and until it breaks betting that it will break is irrational. DON'T SHORT SUPPORT, JUST DON'T
I am still very bullish for the next 2-3 months, yet I am prepared for a dip down to 5750-5950. Personally I wouldn’t short here and wouldn’t sell my alts. I have cash ready to buy the dip or a breakout
Full analysis below:
The L/S ratio just hit its 1+ year low, which is something that can’t be ignored regardless of the situation. (Bullish)
The GBTC/BTC ratio hit ‘support’ and even fell below 1 (Bullish)
TurtleBC’s market buy percentage is currently at 14% slowly creeping up. Since May it has gone below 5% 3 times (Slightly bullish)
Altcoins marketcap dropped 86%, even though 3.5% of it at that point was stablecoins and many more shitcoins have been added since the January top. The bottom came 248 days after the top. In 2014 the altcoin market dropped 84% in 256 days. (Bullish)
Most small cap altcoins look incredibly bullish too. 2 months in accumulation. But remember that many time accumulation zones end with a dip to trap bears and then move higher (cc Mr Wyckoff haha) (first bearish, then bullish).
Bitcoin 2014 bearish fractal shows that Bitcoin should hit 4.8k by October 22nd. For now it seems far fetched and my interpretation along with other time analysis I’ve done, we are due for a final drop and then pump.
Seasonality shows a similar thing. Bitcoin could drop anywhere from 10-25% from here and then go up based on this analysis
Bitcoin fundamental analysis here
CNBC’s Long trade (counter-trading it)
twitter.com/lowstrif.../1050194406324690945 twitter.com/Indicato.../1052989050112610306
CNBC has 2 trades left open with final stop at 5950, which is at the perfect place for a stop hunt. 3 stops taken out once that level is hit and all their open trades are lost. In my honest opinion CNBC is one of the big players in this market with some great analysts. They just won’t tell you what they really think, but the exact opposite. (Yes seriously, Very bearish)
But this isn’t just because of CNBC. On the 11th things got messed up because of Bitfinex and there was no proper stop hunt. Only on some derivatives did we touch 6k and below. Was a simple stop hunt below 6100 but to me this isn’t enough.
Network activity (compared to price – NVT) is really low (Bearish)
When the gap between Bitfinex and other spot exchanges was going up, it was bullish. Now that it is closing is bearish. (Bearish)
CME gaps at 6140 and 6420 (bearish as the lowest one could be filled after the one at 6420).
Most people believe this is the bottom. Majority tends to be wrong. But majority tends to change its opinion once we get near 6k, let alone below it. (first bearish then bullish again hahaha)
The drop happening during the weekend would be ideal as less people could deposit. Most would have to wait until Tuesday for their deposits to hit.
2 important dates to note: 24th full moon, 26th CME futures expiration. Full moon usually bearish, while expiration bullish
Finally 5850-5950 is also the best support and S2 Weekly and Monthly combo. Perfection! People keep saying support gets weaker with every touch! And i agree! 100%. But which is that support they are talking about? 5750-5850? 5750-5950? 5750-6050? 5750-6150? OR 5750-8000? i'd say regardless of how you see it the support has been touched 4-5 MAX and each time we got a really good bounce. Buyers in that zone don't seem exhausted and until it breaks betting that it will break is irrational. DON'T SHORT SUPPORT, JUST DON'T
Comment:
Finally we got a mini dip. Like I had explained on twitter (forgot to update here) twitter.com/btchomer.../1055618243036102656 6200 was a good place for a pause. We might even see more sideways here.
On CME we went down to 6180, but still haven't filled the 6140 gap. However a mini gap has been left near 6405 which was probably just the spread.
Many alts on Bitmex seem to be forming nice double bottoms with these wicks down. Perfect for all coins that after this long period of accumulation we are having a powerless move down (low volume break down and then spring back up, wyckoff style).
L/S ratio is getting near to a point that I can trust it again as the premium on BFX is slowly closing.
All these last few days I kept seeing people get more and more bullish. That's nothing to worry about long term. These people will slowly start selling everything and get washed away.
At the moment we have the full moon effect and the positive funding (due to people being more bullish), which are both bearish for now.
Finally, Novermber and December are usually pretty good months to be long. But we don't know for how much longer this range will continue to exist. Until I see 5750 or 6850 broken I wouldn't make any long term trades except with small caps.
On CME we went down to 6180, but still haven't filled the 6140 gap. However a mini gap has been left near 6405 which was probably just the spread.
Many alts on Bitmex seem to be forming nice double bottoms with these wicks down. Perfect for all coins that after this long period of accumulation we are having a powerless move down (low volume break down and then spring back up, wyckoff style).
L/S ratio is getting near to a point that I can trust it again as the premium on BFX is slowly closing.
All these last few days I kept seeing people get more and more bullish. That's nothing to worry about long term. These people will slowly start selling everything and get washed away.
At the moment we have the full moon effect and the positive funding (due to people being more bullish), which are both bearish for now.
Finally, Novermber and December are usually pretty good months to be long. But we don't know for how much longer this range will continue to exist. Until I see 5750 or 6850 broken I wouldn't make any long term trades except with small caps.
Long/Short ratio slowly going up. Still at bullish levels but I am not confident in it as many shorts have closed. Shorts are 20% below their ATH, not that juicy atm.
BFX Premium at 2.8%. Not much but slowly creeping higher. Above 3.5% it would get bullish again (neutral at the moment)
Today is the day that the 2014 fractal showed we should had been at 4800. 2 days before a full moon (the higher we are, the more bearish this is, the lower we are the more bullish)
As the situation is right now, I can see BTCUSD going to 5950 if 6350 breaks. Here is a bearish fractal
As for alts they are pretty steady with some small pumps every now and then. Most are either right at strong support or at strong resistance, all that while accumulating. These would be the perfect time for a strong move in either direction.
Long periods of accumulation end with a wick down, bears get trapped and then we move up. Could this happen here too, or will the total altcoin market cap complete its nicely formed head and shoulders pattern?