$BTC has followed the broader bear market rallies without departure from the continued descending channel with the weekly 20 EMA closing in on the 200 EMA and the 50 tightening against the 100 EMA.
Since late October 2021 and the ATH set in November, a clear bearish trend has set up as inflation has ripped, the Federal Reserve has increased rates to what they laughingly call "neutral" while FTX has focused on bailing out over-leveraged hedge funds and VC's.
Within the past week, we've seen the Treasury Dept sanction Tornado Cash mixer due to concerns of money laundering... regardless of the case's merits, headwinds remain strong while the bear market rally has been resilient.
Price action is coming to a decision point with the end of August approaching and the weekly candles coming back to the upper channel limit.
Given the broader market headwinds and no clear pivot from the Fed, the likelihood of continued sideways chop is about as probable as the bear market rally fading away with more severe retracement.
A bullish scenario would be a move towards testing $29.3k (heavy pink line) but is much less probable until we see the Fed pivot.
Sideways chop would be continued PA between approx $19k and $24k while further retracement levels are defined.
Most bearish scenario would be the heavy white line around intersecting with the $6.3k upper channel by January 2023.
Risk off remains most likely considering Nasdaq following the dot.com bubble and close attention must be paid to the 1970's rolling peaks of inflation throughout the decade.
We're not at a point to be bullish although volatility for swing trading long/short positions and scalping remain viable for skilled traders with a high degree of risk acceptance.
Since late October 2021 and the ATH set in November, a clear bearish trend has set up as inflation has ripped, the Federal Reserve has increased rates to what they laughingly call "neutral" while FTX has focused on bailing out over-leveraged hedge funds and VC's.
Within the past week, we've seen the Treasury Dept sanction Tornado Cash mixer due to concerns of money laundering... regardless of the case's merits, headwinds remain strong while the bear market rally has been resilient.
Price action is coming to a decision point with the end of August approaching and the weekly candles coming back to the upper channel limit.
Given the broader market headwinds and no clear pivot from the Fed, the likelihood of continued sideways chop is about as probable as the bear market rally fading away with more severe retracement.
A bullish scenario would be a move towards testing $29.3k (heavy pink line) but is much less probable until we see the Fed pivot.
Sideways chop would be continued PA between approx $19k and $24k while further retracement levels are defined.
Most bearish scenario would be the heavy white line around intersecting with the $6.3k upper channel by January 2023.
Risk off remains most likely considering Nasdaq following the dot.com bubble and close attention must be paid to the 1970's rolling peaks of inflation throughout the decade.
We're not at a point to be bullish although volatility for swing trading long/short positions and scalping remain viable for skilled traders with a high degree of risk acceptance.