BTC Outlook 2023-2027 (Revised)
I think its almost confirmed with high confidence that this rally is bear market rally, not a rally of a new cycle that ends the BTC bear market. 25k is already its highest peak, it will going sideway for a while before resuming the drawdown to a lower level. Q1 2023 is one month left before it ends. This rally is the corrective move of wave 4 of the 4th cycle ABC move. After we have the truncated bull market of 2021, now we also have a truncated bear market. Its a textbook Elliot Wave cycle but its just not the ideal one. But it is the ideal one to model the current cycle.
We can see that the peak of the current rally has touch multiple important moving averages. That's it, the unbreakable wall of the rally. Next move we will see again another massive drawdown, the wave 5, the last wave of the ABC move. My prediction is that BTC will be asking for a major support between 12-14k liquidity area, touching 1M 100 SMA and 50% of Fibonacci retracement level, and surely a weekly bullish divergence will be formed, and that would be the best time to buy before a new cycle started. Approximately the bottom will be formed around Q2-Q3 of 2023, but I think Q3 is preferable considering the macroeconomic condition.
The identification of almost-confirmed-with-high-confidence wave 4 of ABC move also stating that the current cycle has been going a time period of more than 4 years tradition and still counting due to a longer bear market. The first time that BTC breaking this tradition after going 3 Elliot Wave cycles and 3 halvings.
For the next cycle, we will have the first wave peaking between 32-37k, the 3rd wave peaking at around 2021 ATH and for the 5th wave, the blow off top will be around 130-170k.
Let see if this post will age really well in the coming years.
I think its almost confirmed with high confidence that this rally is bear market rally, not a rally of a new cycle that ends the BTC bear market. 25k is already its highest peak, it will going sideway for a while before resuming the drawdown to a lower level. Q1 2023 is one month left before it ends. This rally is the corrective move of wave 4 of the 4th cycle ABC move. After we have the truncated bull market of 2021, now we also have a truncated bear market. Its a textbook Elliot Wave cycle but its just not the ideal one. But it is the ideal one to model the current cycle.
We can see that the peak of the current rally has touch multiple important moving averages. That's it, the unbreakable wall of the rally. Next move we will see again another massive drawdown, the wave 5, the last wave of the ABC move. My prediction is that BTC will be asking for a major support between 12-14k liquidity area, touching 1M 100 SMA and 50% of Fibonacci retracement level, and surely a weekly bullish divergence will be formed, and that would be the best time to buy before a new cycle started. Approximately the bottom will be formed around Q2-Q3 of 2023, but I think Q3 is preferable considering the macroeconomic condition.
The identification of almost-confirmed-with-high-confidence wave 4 of ABC move also stating that the current cycle has been going a time period of more than 4 years tradition and still counting due to a longer bear market. The first time that BTC breaking this tradition after going 3 Elliot Wave cycles and 3 halvings.
For the next cycle, we will have the first wave peaking between 32-37k, the 3rd wave peaking at around 2021 ATH and for the 5th wave, the blow off top will be around 130-170k.
Let see if this post will age really well in the coming years.