BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Get this guy to the hospital, he's not looking so good....

If you saw my previous analyses (linked) then you will know I was consistently calling retrace bottom @ 9900 - 10k where the lower center pitchfork line, multiple intraday low, AND 4H 200 MA were all clustered.
Evidently that didn't end so well.

As trading plans work, if the technicals that a plan is based on are broken, the plan is broken and usually the opposite happens.
That is now quickly becoming the case, lets look at it:

1) Huge sell volume through this whole retrace which is not only outpacing current buy volume (proving this to be a supported bear move) but also consistently outpacing the buy volume from the entire past bull move from 6-12k showing there may be more to be concerned about here then just a retrace.
These sell patterns are greatly resembling the market as it was continually pushed down through this bear trend with coordinated sells. Look at the 1m candle on 24/02/2018 @ 6:36 UTC , there was 2400 btc market sold, which pushed the price back through all the support I previously listed, which most likely would have held to push price back up. This is a market makers game and I'm not playing against them.
2) Anything remotely resembling an uptrend line has been broken removing all bull trend support for this retrace.
3) The overall bearish downtrend line was tested and held, further strengthening it which will make this retrace go lower.
4) As stated at the beginning, the lower centre pitchfork line, intraday support, and 4H 200 MA have been broken through/closed below showing bulls lost power to the bears making the path of least resistance downwards no that there is all that resistance above.
5) 4H Ichimoku cloud crossed bearish .

A bottom being frequently called here is 9300 which would be the low of 01 /17/2018. This would form an inverse head and shoulders pattern with 9300 being the neckline and an upside target of 17000.
However, if you look at all the times the price hit the 9300 area (red/0.236 fib) it never showed much strength leading me to believe it doesn't have the power to turn this ship around and start a run strong enough to break the downtrend line and move up to 17k .
A more likely target seems to be the last consolidation area of 8200, if not the bottom of the pitchfork creating a possible double bottom pattern ~6000.


Remember: you are a minnow playing a whales game. The market moves where they want it to move, don't fight them, they will eat you.

Plan accordingly or fourth ever hold your peace.
Comment: We're also entering a low liquidity area, making the path downwards even easier.
Comment: This recent spike has indicated the possibility of a turnaround with volume and the huge liquidation move, scaring off many bears.

Comments

you talk alot
so whats your point in summary?
Reply
@leorio, "A more likely target seems to be the last consolidation area of 8200, if not the bottom of the pitchfork creating a possible double bottom pattern ~6000. "
Reply
@leorio, we are currently undergoing a huge selloff so don't be/go long is my summary
Reply
leorio FenixCapital
@FenixCapital, BRO
i understand your point
but in the long term
do you see bitcoin going down to 0? this year or maybe in 2020?
cause cnn and every media say like that
Reply
@leorio, No I do not see that.
Reply
leorio FenixCapital
@FenixCapital, thanks bro
keep up the good work
Reply
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