BTC historical chart shows clearly that we may be see the despair phase of the second bitcoin bubble following the typical bubble pattern.
The drop of March can be considered as a "glitch" due to traders and hedge funds facing margin calls from equity markets which made them close different positions in their portfolios in order to meet margin requirements.
I expect another drop this summer until probably around 5k $. From there we should build positive momentum and take off to a third bubble.
The thing could play like this:
- Equity and bitcoin crash during summer (after companies start reporting q2) due to covid, V-shape recovery narrative no longer credible, political instability and social unrest, bitcoin crashes to 5k.
- Around presidential elections there will be lots of volatility with Trump, Biden, BLM, COVID-19 etc. Eventually a vaccine or a treatment starts building positive momentum, but there will be shocks like mortgage default payments which could lead to bank bankruptcies and bail-outs. In this context bitcoins starts building momentum and in 2021 when the effects of the crisis (severe unemployment, fears of deflation, QE madness) play out, bitcoin can take-off again as it will be viewed as a safe heaven or anti-fiat asset which will allow investors to hedge their portfolios.
Just my thoughts. Of course we will se how it plays out, but at this point I wouldn't take long positions unless BTC breaks the yellow line and confirms the new trend by using it as a support.
The drop of March can be considered as a "glitch" due to traders and hedge funds facing margin calls from equity markets which made them close different positions in their portfolios in order to meet margin requirements.
I expect another drop this summer until probably around 5k $. From there we should build positive momentum and take off to a third bubble.
The thing could play like this:
- Equity and bitcoin crash during summer (after companies start reporting q2) due to covid, V-shape recovery narrative no longer credible, political instability and social unrest, bitcoin crashes to 5k.
- Around presidential elections there will be lots of volatility with Trump, Biden, BLM, COVID-19 etc. Eventually a vaccine or a treatment starts building positive momentum, but there will be shocks like mortgage default payments which could lead to bank bankruptcies and bail-outs. In this context bitcoins starts building momentum and in 2021 when the effects of the crisis (severe unemployment, fears of deflation, QE madness) play out, bitcoin can take-off again as it will be viewed as a safe heaven or anti-fiat asset which will allow investors to hedge their portfolios.
Just my thoughts. Of course we will se how it plays out, but at this point I wouldn't take long positions unless BTC breaks the yellow line and confirms the new trend by using it as a support.
