BITCOIN Triangle into Channel Up or Down?

Following Bitcoin's Triple Rejection on the 1D MA200 (yellow trend-line) which is a negative sign, the price has formed a Triangle (blue pattern) that typically does when it consolidates. The question is what happens next? Well, on the short-term there are various indications that can be used for projections.


** 4H RSI Bullish Divergence **
From late April until May 11, BTC was rising on Higher Highs. At the same time, its RSI on the 4H time-frame was on Lower Highs, a Bearish Divergence that may indicate that a trend is losing its strength. The result was this 1 week crash of May 19. Since May 19, the price has been under Lower Highs but this time the 4H RSI is on Higher Lows, a Bullish Divergence that may potentially indicate that the bearish trend is losing strength.


** Channel Up or Channel Down? **
This RSI Bullish Divergence may make the Triangle shift into a Channel Up (green pattern). That is of course assuming the Higher Lows trend-line stays intact and in turn break the 1D MA50 finally and make a Higher High above 43500.

If however the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) rejects the price, then the Lower Highs will continue and there will be more probabilities for a Channel Down (red pattern) to emerge instead out of the Triangle.


** The potential 4H MA50/ MA100 Bullish Cross **
What may be a difference maker between the two, is the potential Bullish Cross between the MA50 and the MA100 on the 4H time-frame. May people compare the current crash to the one in March 2020 that was fueled by the COVID market meltdown. Since that benchmark, every Triangle (with the exception of one in May 2020 that continued sideways), finished on a 4H MA50/100 Bullish Cross and was on an RSI Bullish Divergence, eventually broke upwards and made a Higher High. See the charts below:











So what do you think it is going to be? Triangle leading into a Channel Up or Channel Down? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!



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