Bitcoin (BTC) MA Death/Golden Cross Analysis (Part 2) ---> +14%

CEXIO:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
As an extension to my previous post, I'm continuing to trade CEXIO:BTCUSD using:
  • 90-hour Moving Average
  • Basic Candles Techniques
  • Current Price and Volume
  • RSI

To clarify, I am long-term bullish about CEXIO:BTCUSD but am looking to profit off of the waves that we're seeing now. My goal is not to identify the ultimate peak and the ultimate valley, but trade on strong indicators. This method has strongly outperformed the simple buy-and-sell as long as you are able to maintain some composure and trade only once when the MA crosses the price a bunch of times in a short period of time (see yesterday for what I mean).

Short-term, I'm short on CEXIO:BTCUSD because the price dropped well below the MA yesterday. Check my previous analysis, I exited my position and am holding fiat in preparation to buy back in.

I'll be keeping a running tally of trades that I recommend and tracking actual returns! So far, here are the trades following this strategy (sell rounded down to the nearest hundred to account for fees):

Trades by Segment:

Segment 1
  • 02/26/2018 - BUY $10,000
  • 03/05/2018 - SELL $11,400
  • Beginning ($): $10,000
  • Ending ($): $11,400
  • ROI ($): 11.4%
  • Beginning ( BTC ): 1.00
  • Ending ( BTC ): TBD
  • ROI ( BTC ): TBD
  • Segment Duration: TBD
Comment: We're still down for the day and we have plenty of room between the MA and the price right now. The MA is now below the sell line for the last trade, meaning that we're ensuring that we'll be making gains with respect to BTC when we buy in! I'll be updating this less frequently than the last thread that I had. I'll be updating as I see fit, mostly on changes that I see or interesting activity.
Comment: HUGE drop in price overnight, I was pretty shocked when I saw the chart this morning! RSI is showing oversold and this last candle is signaling an end to this drop; however, the candle 30 minutes ago also signaled this, so I'll be staying out of BTC and trading on my strategy! If you are looking for some short-term payoff, it's looking like BTC will make a bounce in the near future. Not sure how high of a recovery it will make, likely a couple hundred.
Comment: And again, BTC is taking a beating. We're actually now $1,000 below the first buy-in that I posted. We locked in some profit (USD) and are now guaranteed to buy back in at a lower price (vs. USD), meaning that we'll be making gains against BTC as well! I'm hoping BTC continues to drop so that we can buy in much cheaper than before! The spread between the 90-hour MA and the price is just under 2k, meaning we're going down hard and it will be at least another few days before a buy-in. Hold on tight to that fiat until BTC decides to bounce!
Comment: We had an established downtrend channel and broke it earlier today. We've been quickly approaching the MA and it looks like we're aiming to intersect around 10k. We are showing overbought on the RSI, so expect a near-term decrease in price but the uptrend to continue.
Comment: The recovery that we were headed toward turned flat and then fell last night. RSI is currently showing oversold, so we may be headed towards the MA. The good news is, the MA has crossed below 10k, meaning that our buy-in will be lower than the first!
Comment: We broke through the downward channel last night pretty definitively and have challenged the long-term MA several times in the past couple of hours. My hesitation here is that BTC will turn down again, and the RSI is showing overbought. Patience is key here, and I'll be waiting for confirmation of a reversal here. Ideally, we breakthrough when the MA is flat or slightly upward. RSI is showing oversold and we have a pretty big sell wall at 9.9-10.1k. I'll have an order at 10k if this uptrend continues.
Trade active: Even though the RSI is showing overbought, the MA is now leveled out and I'm thinking we'll see BTC keep going up. If not, our stop-loss is the MA, so we have very little downside here. For the record, I'm in at 9.75k and will be publishing an idea to track this buy shortly (even if it only lasts a day).
Order cancelled: Closing out this idea, tracking under the idea below. Please like and follow the bull run to make some more gains!
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