Last night was crazy. bitcoin dropped down to 6860, and now it is bouncing back. I have shorted the market last days(8.2->7.8, 7.7->7.3),took nice profits. I tried long at 7100/7200 position, because that spot was the final price for a nice bounce, considering all the EW patterns...but low liquidity didn't allow that(my prices were filled at 7130, stopped at 7080). the bears didn't allow the bulls to go further. at the break of 7040, i quickly went short at small bounce at 7060, and am holding it.
now because of 1hr bull divergence, and 4hr, we are seeing a push up to 7k but it will be short lived. i assure you to buy whatever you can above 6950~7400 and short it. you can profit from sideways for quite a long time from now.
this is the 4hour chart. you can clearly see how from 7800 range it tried to make a bull div on indicators, but consistently got rejected. as we came down into a short-mid term bear trend, we have breached the bollinger band low low. however, this would not mean we would bounce real hard. in downtrends, t can rip downwards just like it did. also, bounces usually go further as the middle baseline of the bollinger band.so even though it bounces now, target will be 7150, and 7350~70 as the highest. use leverage 5~10. it will not! exceed these levels so easy until a daily confirm is saying reversal is in the cards.
now, we must be careful of bull traps. be careful of 1hr timeframes. it always tell people to buy now, when price makes lower low but indicators make higher high. BUT IT ALWAYS ENDED UP WITH A HIDDEN BEAR DIVERGENCE.
So, from now on, we HAVE to trade based on daily, weekly, and monthly frames. 1hr is only for that small timeframe. if these divergence worked, we would be above 8k by now. but it bounces only to cool of with 100~200dollar bounce.
in my last ta 'do not dream of bull run' i said 2 things. 1. RSI 70 and going down, losing track of bullishness will take us down low, and low. 2. breaking 72 will lead to 68, and 68 may NOT be a good support. if you see the daily chart, point for a real reverse, like to 7.8k or even more, needs a very, very, very long setup now. first it needs to hit the oversold zone at 30, and try to make a divergence..
that means what? we should go little more lower than 68(hopefully) to 66~67, maybe really low to 6k or below to make this setup! MACD deadcross has confirmed and this will drop down so fast or at least go sideways.
so unless daily hits below 30 or near, shorting this market at buying at resistance levels will work! do not fear to short bitcoin, even for scalping 40, 50 dollars. it will work.
do not care about the price, only care about what the indicators say in daily. that will be a long buy spot.
and even if we see a bounce, with all the setups in daily, even around 67~68 area, the top will be 77~78. it has high probability only test the monthly high and resume the downtrend. that means what. going long isn't so attractive.
rather wait and short at that price is better.
Now, so many TA's are saying 5k, 4k is on the cards. I can say 5k is on the card, but 4k, I do not know yet, it is an early call. for now the plan would be
1.BTC short
buy zone: 6950~7000/7150/7250~7300
(you can set stop at 7.5, but I would rather buy higher to short)
sell:68/67/or lower
(you can repeat the same for some time)
2. Daily RSI hit 30, but try to make bull div with sideways->good candle and indicators bottomed out+with good news spreading in the market-->go long
max target is 7.7k
-i think this will take time to develop
3. take profit at 7.7, switch to short at 7.7k and ride it all the way down to 6k or below.
-this can be highly possible
1, I think will go on for next days. 2, i think will take time at least a week, or 2~3 weeks.
trade safe!
now because of 1hr bull divergence, and 4hr, we are seeing a push up to 7k but it will be short lived. i assure you to buy whatever you can above 6950~7400 and short it. you can profit from sideways for quite a long time from now.
this is the 4hour chart. you can clearly see how from 7800 range it tried to make a bull div on indicators, but consistently got rejected. as we came down into a short-mid term bear trend, we have breached the bollinger band low low. however, this would not mean we would bounce real hard. in downtrends, t can rip downwards just like it did. also, bounces usually go further as the middle baseline of the bollinger band.so even though it bounces now, target will be 7150, and 7350~70 as the highest. use leverage 5~10. it will not! exceed these levels so easy until a daily confirm is saying reversal is in the cards.
now, we must be careful of bull traps. be careful of 1hr timeframes. it always tell people to buy now, when price makes lower low but indicators make higher high. BUT IT ALWAYS ENDED UP WITH A HIDDEN BEAR DIVERGENCE.
So, from now on, we HAVE to trade based on daily, weekly, and monthly frames. 1hr is only for that small timeframe. if these divergence worked, we would be above 8k by now. but it bounces only to cool of with 100~200dollar bounce.
in my last ta 'do not dream of bull run' i said 2 things. 1. RSI 70 and going down, losing track of bullishness will take us down low, and low. 2. breaking 72 will lead to 68, and 68 may NOT be a good support. if you see the daily chart, point for a real reverse, like to 7.8k or even more, needs a very, very, very long setup now. first it needs to hit the oversold zone at 30, and try to make a divergence..
that means what? we should go little more lower than 68(hopefully) to 66~67, maybe really low to 6k or below to make this setup! MACD deadcross has confirmed and this will drop down so fast or at least go sideways.
so unless daily hits below 30 or near, shorting this market at buying at resistance levels will work! do not fear to short bitcoin, even for scalping 40, 50 dollars. it will work.
do not care about the price, only care about what the indicators say in daily. that will be a long buy spot.
and even if we see a bounce, with all the setups in daily, even around 67~68 area, the top will be 77~78. it has high probability only test the monthly high and resume the downtrend. that means what. going long isn't so attractive.
rather wait and short at that price is better.
Now, so many TA's are saying 5k, 4k is on the cards. I can say 5k is on the card, but 4k, I do not know yet, it is an early call. for now the plan would be
1.BTC short
buy zone: 6950~7000/7150/7250~7300
(you can set stop at 7.5, but I would rather buy higher to short)
sell:68/67/or lower
(you can repeat the same for some time)
2. Daily RSI hit 30, but try to make bull div with sideways->good candle and indicators bottomed out+with good news spreading in the market-->go long
max target is 7.7k
-i think this will take time to develop
3. take profit at 7.7, switch to short at 7.7k and ride it all the way down to 6k or below.
-this can be highly possible
1, I think will go on for next days. 2, i think will take time at least a week, or 2~3 weeks.
trade safe!
Trade active:
try to buy at higher prices above 7k, it it shows same pattern like what it did in the 7400's(making high at 75.2), making second high at 74.8~75 and make bear divergence, it will only confirm this trade
Comment:
so far btc still playing in our first short entry target. if it will break 7030/40, it will shoot up to 7100ish, so 2nd entry target must be over 7100. 30mi, 1hr stoch rsi already overbought, and rsi keeps making bearish divergence on most of the time frames. now is the time bulls should push higher, or it will return with retracement, where out first TP, 6800ish will return.
Comment:
BTC shot upwards as anticipated. try to buy above 7100(at least 7070~80), this shoot up is only worsening the indicators, volume not really picking up making bears in triumph in short-mid rage term. i have bought only small amount at 6950~7000, and bought more at 7070. have more heavy orders put 7100, 7250, 7350.
Comment:
i am buying short orders, not long because risk reward is much more higher than going long. this retracement can take to at least 67/68, and even below levels to 63 until mid august.
Comment:
haha. here it goes. you can take some profit,i guess 30~40% at 6900~6950 levels, a 100 dollar scalp if you have bought at 7050~7070 levels. leave next for 6850 level. after that you can go long from 68, or 6750, but too early to call long yet.
Comment:
very short term scenarios. at any point shorts will win this game.
Comment:
took more profit at 6880. don't think market would collapse just today, but never know what would happen. do not close your trade fully, just take some profit and leave the rest in case it goes underground. if it climbs up to 71, 72 or more in the coming days buy more shorts, in case 68 breaks with good confirmation buy shorts at 68 level immediately.
Comment:
enter short 7020/7050/7080. 1hour ichimoku cloud facing major resistance from 5~6hours from now, when weekly candle closes. 1hr bollinger band top should not be breached around 7080. 3rd bottom was 6930, which is not giving bulls enough confidence to push up. risky though, 4 hr is still oversold condition. worthy but stop should be at 7150, or below, should rebuy at higher levels.
Comment:
this is basically the idea for next days, with full hope in biased to the bulls. so if you have bought at 7000 levels, DO NOT have to worry, and keep it(leverage 10 liquidation, which is around 77/78 levels will not come). 1hr indicators are already over bought, only with 7100 hike which is insane. now, this thing can make couple of more bear flag upwards, and when it does just buy the top. that is the win of this game. there may be possibility of btc breaking out from now levels and visit for entrancement, 6990/6950 zone, so try to sell shorts at 7000ish if that happens and buy higher.
Comment:
boom! again, shorts won! take profit at 69, 68 levels, leave some if we dip below. hurray!