ALT market cap priced in BTC.
It shows the changing valuation of the entire altcoin market with respect to the spot price of Bitcoin.
As you can see, at its height, the altcoin bubble was worth around 30 million BTC. That's about 50% more BTC than were actually available in circulation. Even though the price of Bitcoin had already dropped about 33% from its 2017 ATH at this point, it still shows the massive overvaluation of this altcoin space.
The 200 and 500 daily moving averages give a slow changing (long-lagging and therefore fairly reliable) signal of shift between so-called bearish and bullish trends. Alts had already started turning bullish in January when the Bitcoin breakout in April changed their course, turning the MAs bearish again. Bitcoin on the other hand has shown an incredibly bullish upthrust and the MAs look set to cross within weeks. Does this mean the price will continue to soar? I suggest you look at 2012 and 2016 when these MAs last turned bullish (see linked chart). In previous "bull" markets, once these MAs crossed bullishly, they stayed that way until the markets peaked. If they were to uncross here, in this year, then I would expect the price to retest the 3k level as the spot price will cross down below the 200 MA.
The altcoin MAs still look bearish. They may turn bullish soon, if altbtc coins are bottoming here. But the chart does not look promising. If this doesn't happen the most likely case, in my opinion, is a limited bounce and then another drop before a bullish crossover of the MAs.
As far as alts are concerned, it is still a case of watch and wait in most cases.
Log version of altbtc market cap, published May 5:
Long-term averages for Bitcoin, published July 3:
It shows the changing valuation of the entire altcoin market with respect to the spot price of Bitcoin.
As you can see, at its height, the altcoin bubble was worth around 30 million BTC. That's about 50% more BTC than were actually available in circulation. Even though the price of Bitcoin had already dropped about 33% from its 2017 ATH at this point, it still shows the massive overvaluation of this altcoin space.
The 200 and 500 daily moving averages give a slow changing (long-lagging and therefore fairly reliable) signal of shift between so-called bearish and bullish trends. Alts had already started turning bullish in January when the Bitcoin breakout in April changed their course, turning the MAs bearish again. Bitcoin on the other hand has shown an incredibly bullish upthrust and the MAs look set to cross within weeks. Does this mean the price will continue to soar? I suggest you look at 2012 and 2016 when these MAs last turned bullish (see linked chart). In previous "bull" markets, once these MAs crossed bullishly, they stayed that way until the markets peaked. If they were to uncross here, in this year, then I would expect the price to retest the 3k level as the spot price will cross down below the 200 MA.
The altcoin MAs still look bearish. They may turn bullish soon, if altbtc coins are bottoming here. But the chart does not look promising. If this doesn't happen the most likely case, in my opinion, is a limited bounce and then another drop before a bullish crossover of the MAs.
As far as alts are concerned, it is still a case of watch and wait in most cases.
Log version of altbtc market cap, published May 5:
Long-term averages for Bitcoin, published July 3:
The gap downs caused in this ratio were filled by a resurgent BTC price. I believe we may see Bitcoin close that gap at 27x altcoin market cap!