Continuing to run short according to this top formation scenario developed last year - 3 months waiting for this final market move down which would typically occur around now.
Assuming a drop materialises - broad expectations for the rest of 2022:
- Bottom stretch target remains at $18,600 $30k is still a bounce area but liquidity is under this level. Sub $30k there is little support until pATH but final target should become clearer after the next few days. Folk believe $30k is strong but this feels like the perfect trap - Sub $30k lies the real fear and liquidations may cause a major waterfall effect down towards $20k mark.
- Scenario suggests BTC should recover prices from this final dip during H1 - retest of $43k area then further decline in H2 back 20 low $22k area.
- Scenario points to a Summer 'ALT Season' with the BTC rally
- General Macro BTC trend is along a channel between $40k and $20k - wedged between 50 and 200 WMA - $30k is the mid-range
Note:
- Original forecast expected 2 waves down from the $40k area. I now see this as a single wave to $20k area.
- Extended further to end of 2022 based on forming market structure, resistance and indicators.
- Forecasting this far ahead is indicative, nothing is exact hence the crude drawing and just offers a guide for potential swing trades based on the historical structures.
- Only real market signals are declining retail demand and higher borrowing costs which support a stagnant market.
Looking forward to being long again soon. The rest of 2022 looks like a very good trading year!
Best, Hard Forky
Next few Days - Price Action:
Daily: Local short placements
Weekly: Macro dev last year based on historical top formations
US Equities - My 'Big Short': Target is March 2021 zone
Assuming a drop materialises - broad expectations for the rest of 2022:
- Bottom stretch target remains at $18,600 $30k is still a bounce area but liquidity is under this level. Sub $30k there is little support until pATH but final target should become clearer after the next few days. Folk believe $30k is strong but this feels like the perfect trap - Sub $30k lies the real fear and liquidations may cause a major waterfall effect down towards $20k mark.
- Scenario suggests BTC should recover prices from this final dip during H1 - retest of $43k area then further decline in H2 back 20 low $22k area.
- Scenario points to a Summer 'ALT Season' with the BTC rally
- General Macro BTC trend is along a channel between $40k and $20k - wedged between 50 and 200 WMA - $30k is the mid-range
Note:
- Original forecast expected 2 waves down from the $40k area. I now see this as a single wave to $20k area.
- Extended further to end of 2022 based on forming market structure, resistance and indicators.
- Forecasting this far ahead is indicative, nothing is exact hence the crude drawing and just offers a guide for potential swing trades based on the historical structures.
- Only real market signals are declining retail demand and higher borrowing costs which support a stagnant market.
Looking forward to being long again soon. The rest of 2022 looks like a very good trading year!
Best, Hard Forky
Next few Days - Price Action:
Daily: Local short placements
Weekly: Macro dev last year based on historical top formations
US Equities - My 'Big Short': Target is March 2021 zone
