Analysis
- BTC had a nice little short squeeze today.
- I'm still bearish short-term but bullish long term.
- RSI has moved up which gives it room to drop along with the price.
- If you look at past historical chart data you'll see that it tends to flatline before going bullish again. (We haven't flatlined yet.)
- We are bouncing off that major trendline (support turned resistance)
- The other trendline above it has the price going down in a channel. (This can be interpreted as a falling wedge or downward channel).
- Target for me is still between $5.5-$5k for the bottom.
Trading
- I added to my short here at $6400 with a target of $5.6. (I'll adjust as needed but may take profit a little earlier since I missed out 2x @$5.8 and reopen at $5.5)
Regulation wise:
- SEC loosens rules for future ETFs.
- ETH will get futures at some point this year. (I'm guessing at the very end of the year just like it was for BTC in 2017).
Sidenote/Thoughts
- I know there are people calling for $1.5k etc but I honestly can't see that happening. This post I got from r/BitcoinMarkets by ComputationalMat sums up exactly why. He honestly couldn't have said it any better. It would literally drive away any future potential investors.
"...My opinion is that people expecting these sorts of lows are fundamentally bearish: they think Bitcoin is worthless. Ironically, this statement is often accompanied by a declaration of being "long-term bulls" and that Bitcoin simply needs to retrace to the depth of the abyss, as it has apparently always done (because my TA says so, yada yada), in past market cycles. And then the weak hands are shaken out and the next great bull run can begin.
Today, I don't think it's reasonable to expect an asset with this level of exposure to drop 95% and expect it to retain value or appreciate over the long term. And I don't mean exposure in terms of market cap, I mean public awareness of the asset, even if it's not fully grasped by most. Particularly so when it's main selling point to most has become a digital model of gold and a hedge against the rest of the market. I don't think this sentiment existed or was remotely as strong in the past.
There's no clear line in the sand of course, but I think if Bitcoin spends anything more than a fragment of time below or around the 2-3k level, the long-term bullish argument is nullified. Those who have always thought it's the biggest pump-and-dump in history, including the general public, will then commit irreversibly to that viewpoint. Then again, this might be defined as "capitulation" to the "long-term bulls". I see it as the death of the asset."
- BTC had a nice little short squeeze today.
- I'm still bearish short-term but bullish long term.
- RSI has moved up which gives it room to drop along with the price.
- If you look at past historical chart data you'll see that it tends to flatline before going bullish again. (We haven't flatlined yet.)
- We are bouncing off that major trendline (support turned resistance)
- The other trendline above it has the price going down in a channel. (This can be interpreted as a falling wedge or downward channel).
- Target for me is still between $5.5-$5k for the bottom.
Trading
- I added to my short here at $6400 with a target of $5.6. (I'll adjust as needed but may take profit a little earlier since I missed out 2x @$5.8 and reopen at $5.5)
Regulation wise:
- SEC loosens rules for future ETFs.
- ETH will get futures at some point this year. (I'm guessing at the very end of the year just like it was for BTC in 2017).
Sidenote/Thoughts
- I know there are people calling for $1.5k etc but I honestly can't see that happening. This post I got from r/BitcoinMarkets by ComputationalMat sums up exactly why. He honestly couldn't have said it any better. It would literally drive away any future potential investors.
"...My opinion is that people expecting these sorts of lows are fundamentally bearish: they think Bitcoin is worthless. Ironically, this statement is often accompanied by a declaration of being "long-term bulls" and that Bitcoin simply needs to retrace to the depth of the abyss, as it has apparently always done (because my TA says so, yada yada), in past market cycles. And then the weak hands are shaken out and the next great bull run can begin.
Today, I don't think it's reasonable to expect an asset with this level of exposure to drop 95% and expect it to retain value or appreciate over the long term. And I don't mean exposure in terms of market cap, I mean public awareness of the asset, even if it's not fully grasped by most. Particularly so when it's main selling point to most has become a digital model of gold and a hedge against the rest of the market. I don't think this sentiment existed or was remotely as strong in the past.
There's no clear line in the sand of course, but I think if Bitcoin spends anything more than a fragment of time below or around the 2-3k level, the long-term bullish argument is nullified. Those who have always thought it's the biggest pump-and-dump in history, including the general public, will then commit irreversibly to that viewpoint. Then again, this might be defined as "capitulation" to the "long-term bulls". I see it as the death of the asset."