COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I would like to give a little overview of the current market situation.

Currently, the BTC price drifts on the tiny range between the ascending channel trendlines . Yesterday and today, it has increased the value but the current problem is the altcoins. BTC has shown some pumps upwards but altcoins haven't reacted at all and today they are even mostly on the minus side, if we wait for a breakout upwards then this is definitely not a good sign. It is doable but only then when the altcoins start to climb into the plus side, so watch those when the price starts to make a breakout upwards. If it starts to go right away and altcoins don't follow that movement then I think that this is another manipulation move!

The bad thing is also this that if it makes a breakout upwards with low volume inside the candles then we have two pretty strong levels just above the $3,900 - orange areas - and Fib 62% retracement level. Currently, it is very hard to believe into the strong bullish move because - summary:
- Altcoins are on the sleep mode
- Strong resistances just above the current price
- I don't like this ascending channel
Technically to buy after the breakout would be bad, not a mistake but bad, because of the strong resistances - they are just too close.

We have two scenarios and surprise-surprise the second one is the bearish scenario!
Firstly, the price has tried to break above 38% Fibo retracement level but those attempts have been failed. 38% Fib level works pretty well if the trend and the momentum are great and pretty often the price finds a next leg momentum exactly from 38% level. Currently, we have a slightly positive sign from this level - we have been too long in this area. If we get a possible next leg down then it would be smaller because if we count equal ABC waves from the top $4,190 then the C point would be around $3,350 and that's not the good area.
Secondly, as I said, I don't like this ascending channel . Usually, those 'ascendings' are bearish patterns.
If BTC price starts to make a breakout downwards, which is more favorable, considering that current situation, then another Bart move is a possible scenario. Currently, we can draw a minor trendline from 17. Feb. low point and from 4. March low point which gives us a crossing area (there are also EMA's which should act as a support) with historically worked support levels around $3,730. So, if the price breaks out from the channel downwards then this area would be the first stop area. This is not a perfect bounce area upwards, this is more like a stop area/consolidation area.

SUMMARY: As said we can predict further price movement after the price has made a breakout from the channel but still, slightly more favorable is a movement downwards, especially when the altcoins are on the sleep mode and today they are mostly on the minus side but let's see the day is not over.

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*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!

Previous analysis:


Comment: The weekend is over and the BTC price is still on the ascending channel. We had some ups and downs but generally, all are the same.
On Saturday night BTC "lived through" more than $100 drop but buyers pushed it pretty quickly back inside the channel and my previous TA. still working in the same way but with some exception.

Firstly the bullish view, now the price is even closer to the first strong resistance area which starts around $3,950. If on Friday, we needed two strong push to go upwards - firstly through the channel upper trendline and secondly through the strong resistance - then right now we need almost one push and we get 2in1. High volume push upwards and we have a breakout from the channel and we are above the first strong resistance/above the round number $4,000. The break upwards is definitely doable, if the price starts to make a breakout, watch what the altcoins do and this was also a good sign that buyers were alerted when sellers tried to push the price down on Saturday night.

As said before, I'm slightly with a short-term bearish bias. Currently, we have a strong price area around $3,750, there are the trendline, previous supports, EMA's, Fibo levels which all should act as support levels and the downwards movement get confirmed after the bearish breakout from the channel.
If it drops there then I need to collect more data to give further price action viewpoints but what I don't want to see is a structural change. It changes after the last higher low (HL) break which is $3,700 but let's see I keep You posted!

Comment: New analysis - a possible BUY opportunity:

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Posted updates and trades in my analysis. Just scroll down for March 9th video analysis. And see how I called the shake-out and mentioned that LTC will outperform ETH and BTC back since January.
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Interesting chart to watch in next few weeks.
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Spot on VaidoVeek. And once this Resistance breaks, BTC enters a real uptrend.

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That ascending pattern is curious. I am waiting to see if the shorter term turns bearish. Shorts VS Longs are also at a disparity.

+1 Reply
jollygreen jollygreen
@jollygreen, With indicator labels:

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Thanks for your work! Provided multiple updates in my analysis and 2 free trades for TradingView members. Check it out and DM me if you have questions :)

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