timwest
Short

Bitcoin 6 weeks of distribution at $430 now headed lower

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
7687 50 68
10 months ago
I mapped out this decline on January 20th in the Key Hidden Levels Chatroom here at TradingView.

Without going into extreme detail at this moment, I am looking for a decline over the next 4-5 weeks to potentially see the price fall to $260 from $393 at the moment.

There is tremendous distribution in the chart pattern, especially as shown by RgMov, my proprietary "trend" indicator which has been hitting new lows here lately.

$450 is the current stop but that can come down pretty quickly.

Tim 393.01 last BTCUSD-BITFINEX
10 months ago
Comment: So far, on track.
10 months ago
Comment: Lower stop from 450 down to 425.
Prepare to sell any bounces to 390.
10 months ago
Comment: It hit 386 today, 377 last. 386 was the bottom end of the daily resistance level from the mode from 386-394. I picked the middle of the mode at 390 to sell against. What to do now? Lower the stop down to $410 from $425.
10 months ago
Comment: You can have a very tight stop if you sell at 388-398, using a 410 stop (on a daily basis, this is a tight stop) and target the bottom of the current downtrend at 352.50
9 months ago
Trade closed manually: Time expired for the downtrend (note the time box on the chart for a 6 week decline) - so this downtrend trade is over. Stay tuned.
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HosseinMansouri
10 months ago
Good Job Tim, Your Previous Analysis of Bitcoin was Brilliant.
I Agree with This One Too, Actually i have a Similar Opinion About Current State
Signs of Fall in Bitcoin Weekly
+2 Reply
Csys
10 months ago
I'm liking all the ideas shorting btc lol
+2 Reply
Lanmar PRO
10 months ago
Agree. Major buy at 250/260
+2 Reply
pecivalec
10 months ago
How much are you getting paid for publishing ideas like this Tim? I can see stock players like you advising people to sell bitcoin, projecting downtrends and bearish scenarios in bitcoin although bitcoin is deflationary in its nature and had a huge volume in past few months. Go and short stocks
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shahan.rehman PRO pecivalec
10 months ago
Purest manifestation of an unused brain :D
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A6 pecivalec
10 months ago
tim predicts up too:
Bitcoin BTCUSD Bitstamp - Monthly Downtrend Time expired

but this is my favourite chart (yes downtrend):
Bitcoin/Dollar BTCUSD Weekly - Weak Action Spells 300-180 target

do you see any advice "go and sell and loose money"? people see it more like short oportunity or low price to rebuy...or just "do nothing and watch if the prediction will be correct"...thats all...but the worst thing is (according to your name) i think you are from the same country like me....so i feel quite stupid for you ;)
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO A6
10 months ago
Clearly the guy who posted above has no clue about many things...nor knows Tim in the slightest.
Time at mode is a powerful tool, specially when the creator (Tim) applies it masterfully on BTC. :)
+2 Reply
hodor A6
10 months ago
I don't think you understood these charts Tim posted in the past because his targets were hit both times. Great work Tim!
+3 Reply
timwest PRO A6
10 months ago
Thanks @A6. I think any reasoned person would see that I just call the market the way it is set up to move. Bitcoin has been one of the most forecastable markets yet, with a period in the first half of last year where it was choppy and, in hindsight, I'll call it "re-grouping". It is when no one is really in control of the price yet. The buyers hadn't accumulated enough and the sellers hadn't completed selling yet. Every day is a new day and a violent price move might alter the long term forecast for the price. Anything really is possible. Markets are just people and people do irrational things sometimes, especially in groups or "herds". Either way, I appreciate your support.
+3 Reply
jfengyu
10 months ago
I like your chart.
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rivet.popper
10 months ago
Hi Tim. Your chart doesn't fill out when I press play for some reason, though I think BTC is almost exactly following the trajectory so far. Is there any way you could repost?

I'm curious what you think of Tim Draper's statement today on Fox that BTC will be 10,000 USD by 2018. It would have to be adopted by a lot of people and businesses for that, and fast. But most folks haven't even heard of it.
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Panayi rivet.popper
10 months ago
Tim Drapers was a recording from nearly 2 years ago. It was reposted on reddit today like it was a new statement. As you can see his prediction seems to be a little off.
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rivet.popper Panayi
10 months ago
Really? Fox is showing this like it's brand new.
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rivet.popper rivet.popper
10 months ago
And he said 10k by 2018, not tomorrow. So he can be off now but can he be right someday?
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IvanLabrie PRO rivet.popper
10 months ago
That Draper guy, I wouldn't trust anyone buying BTC like he did haha.
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rivet.popper IvanLabrie
10 months ago
Ivan are you still short waiting for 1399 CNY by February 7th?
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IvanLabrie PRO rivet.popper
10 months ago
The chart is at the crossroads. I'm flat, prediction stands, but it has a new mode lower. It has to break down fast, limited time to reach 1921 here.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
10 months ago
I entered shorts again with the daily range expansion, we're breaking the lower weekly mode (new mode lower) if we see continued declines during the week we'll surely follow Tim's forecast.
+1 Reply
rivet.popper IvanLabrie
10 months ago
Thanks!
+1 Reply
timwest PRO rivet.popper
10 months ago
I have trouble with "playing" charts too at times. I just log out and log back in to TradingView and that seems to help. When Tradingview makes any updates, I find that I run into glitches. But again, log out and log back in. That's my best suggestion.
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Omarli
10 months ago
nice!
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interesting!
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Markantonio
10 months ago
Maybe if we cross 2500 cny or $350.
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rivet.popper
10 months ago
Hi Tim, I'm confused by your term "current downtrend". The overall target is still 260 USD, right?
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timwest PRO rivet.popper
10 months ago
The chart is a current downtrend because of the large decline in January makes a lower-low. The current rally is a bounce in that downtrend.
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rivet.popper
10 months ago
Hi Tim. Is this trade still active? Seems like nothing really going on here.
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oet.investments
10 months ago
Time to short boys and girls, fake out to 390s prime short entry area
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO oet.investments
10 months ago
Not bad to short against resistance.
+1 Reply
oet.investments IvanLabrie
10 months ago
looking like this could be a triple top at 393. If it drops hard from here I think it would be safe to say Tim nailed this analysis and his targets should be reached. price failing to break 400 again would be like an early Christmas to all shorts
+1 Reply
oet.investments oet.investments
10 months ago
*Tims analysis is nailed as long as not above 410 haha don't know what I was saying. Would prefer not to see 400 again though
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO oet.investments
10 months ago
The prediction can change though (Tim's often right on when it comes to BTC, but we have very little time to hit 1921cny in okcoin.cn charts to validate the weekly decline).
We've been discussing this one with Tim, watch the weekly close. If not dropping hard, it might actually turn around.
+1 Reply
oet.investments IvanLabrie
10 months ago
Thanks Ivan, nice to see that triple top then drop down to 365 so far :) Definitely keeping a close eye on this. Do you know what the time cut off is for okcoin to see 1921?
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IvanLabrie PRO oet.investments
10 months ago
This weekly close is vital...if not reached in time, it's a bearish failure.
+1 Reply
BuyBitcoin.WS IvanLabrie
10 months ago
Ivan are you saying we must reach by tomorrow weekly close or next weekly candle close?
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IvanLabrie PRO BuyBitcoin.WS
10 months ago
Tomorrow.
+1 Reply
oet.investments IvanLabrie
10 months ago
just to clarify, if Okcoin does not see a major sell of today/tomorrow reaching 1921 this is a bearish failure and beginning of new uptrend?
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IvanLabrie PRO oet.investments
10 months ago
It would imply it'd be possible to expect a move back to the start of the range expansion decline in the weekly. (the big move from January 11 at 2944 or so)
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BuyBitcoin.WS IvanLabrie
10 months ago
well if bears dont make it happen by tomorrow, id expect a move to test $425 (top of triangle) to satisfy the bulls then a failure there and retrace to $350 imo
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oet.investments IvanLabrie
10 months ago
Highly unlikely for it to drop that much by tomorrow, I do see the indecision on the charts though making higher lows and lower highs.
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IvanLabrie PRO oet.investments
10 months ago
True, it's becoming tempting to take a bet on the long side.
I'll post a chart after the week closes.
+2 Reply
oet.investments IvanLabrie
10 months ago
Cheers Ivan, would appreciate that very much.
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IvanLabrie PRO oet.investments
10 months ago
Unless Tim updates his.
This one's really interesting now for sure.
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Panayi IvanLabrie
10 months ago
I find myself feeling simultaneously bearish and bullish. This could be the sentiment of the herd and hence the choppy movement in addition to the market in general being split. However, the fundamentals point to a bearish trend. I'm short on 75% of my holdings.
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Panayi Panayi
10 months ago
Since $389
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IvanLabrie PRO Panayi
10 months ago
True, it's a consolidation apparently. So far the bearish resolution was favored based on the daily chart activity and rgmov readings, but it's changing and maybe pointing to resumption of weekly and monthly direction which was steadily up overall before.
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Panayi IvanLabrie
10 months ago
Ok. Thanks. Will have to be considered.
+1 Reply
rivet.popper oet.investments
10 months ago
yep couldn't even stay above 390. Hoping to see 352 USD sometime soon.
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VNVRCHY rivet.popper
10 months ago
called it
+2 Reply
Galvin
9 months ago
This chart invalidated?
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timwest PRO Galvin
9 months ago
NOTE THE POST ABOVE FROM 7 DAYS AGO:

7 days ago
Trade closed manually. Time expired for the downtrend (note the time box on the chart for a 6 week decline) - so this downtrend trade is over. Stay tuned.
Reply
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