Bitcoin 6 weeks of distribution at $430 now headed lower

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
7751 50 68
I mapped out this decline on January 20th in the Key Hidden Levels Chatroom here at TradingView.

Without going into extreme detail at this moment, I am looking for a decline over the next 4-5 weeks to potentially see the price fall to $260 from $393 at the moment.

There is tremendous distribution in the chart pattern, especially as shown by RgMov, my proprietary "trend" indicator which has been hitting new lows here lately.

$450 is the current stop but that can come down pretty quickly.

Tim 393.01 last BTCUSD-BITFINEX
Comment: So far, on track.
Comment: Lower stop from 450 down to 425.
Prepare to sell any bounces to 390.
Comment: It hit 386 today, 377 last. 386 was the bottom end of the daily resistance level from the mode from 386-394. I picked the middle of the mode at 390 to sell against. What to do now? Lower the stop down to $410 from $425.
Comment: You can have a very tight stop if you sell at 388-398, using a 410 stop (on a daily basis, this is a tight stop) and target the bottom of the current downtrend at 352.50
Trade closed manually: Time expired for the downtrend (note the time box on the chart for a 6 week decline) - so this downtrend trade is over. Stay tuned.
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This chart invalidated?

7 days ago
Trade closed manually. Time expired for the downtrend (note the time box on the chart for a 6 week decline) - so this downtrend trade is over. Stay tuned.
Time to short boys and girls, fake out to 390s prime short entry area
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie oet.investments
Not bad to short against resistance.
+1 Reply
looking like this could be a triple top at 393. If it drops hard from here I think it would be safe to say Tim nailed this analysis and his targets should be reached. price failing to break 400 again would be like an early Christmas to all shorts
+1 Reply
oet.investments oet.investments
*Tims analysis is nailed as long as not above 410 haha don't know what I was saying. Would prefer not to see 400 again though
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie oet.investments
The prediction can change though (Tim's often right on when it comes to BTC, but we have very little time to hit 1921cny in okcoin.cn charts to validate the weekly decline).
We've been discussing this one with Tim, watch the weekly close. If not dropping hard, it might actually turn around.
+1 Reply
Thanks Ivan, nice to see that triple top then drop down to 365 so far :) Definitely keeping a close eye on this. Do you know what the time cut off is for okcoin to see 1921?
IvanLabrie oet.investments
This weekly close is vital...if not reached in time, it's a bearish failure.
+1 Reply
BitcoinGuru IvanLabrie
Ivan are you saying we must reach by tomorrow weekly close or next weekly candle close?
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