"Consider a turkey that is fed every day," Taleb writes. "Every single feeding will firm up the bird's belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race 'looking out for its best interests,' as a politician would say.
"On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief."
"Consider that feeling of safety reached its maximum when the risk was at the highest!"
...There are a lot of BTC turkeys out there right now that have a very warped sense of risk due to the up, up, up that has been going on for several years now. Risk taking is not a problem...that is how money is made. NOT UNDERSTANDING the risk you are taking on...well, that is how money is lost. I dunno when it will crash, just that eventually it will and a lot of folks will be completely blindsided because they don't have the appropriate risk management in place.