No, I'm not crazy.
Rewind to April ... April 11 to be precise ... we crossed that important green trend line ... and then, while I was sitting in a movie theater getting ready to watch a movie (I think it was Star Wars, Last Jedi ... good movie by the way) ... green, 1300 points of it.
You see that green line we have now ... some define it as the upper parallel of the descending channel we've been in for 2 MONTHS now!
Well, what if we were to cross it? Can we expect the same green candle?
There are a few scenarios in my mind, and here they are in order of my guess of highest probability:
- we have one more backtest ... maybe to 58XX and then we go up, either cross that green line or sideways until we do cross it, then we move up.
- we go super bear ... soon, like in the next couple of days, and reach between 5k and 5.4k ... then a bounce.
- we just sideways all for 8 or so days until we cross the green line.
ALL of these scenarios say a reversal is around the corner (as in 1 week from now). Obviously I could be wrong, but that's how I'm playing it.
I don't see this current situation as the bulls loosing, but the bears failing to bring it down further after have a long, long time to try.
My trade situation ... I have some coins that I have scalped (see my EOS Idea) ... and I will accumulate down in the 5k to 5.9k territory, with higher probability of a bottom resting between 5.7k and 5.9k ... below 5k, my idea is screwed ... but I'm prepared to take that risk. I'm anticipating a bounce to 65XX at some stage and will likely take profit there, and buy back immediately on the dip, and establish a tight stop.
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this information for investment/financial decisions. For educational purposes only.
Rewind to April ... April 11 to be precise ... we crossed that important green trend line ... and then, while I was sitting in a movie theater getting ready to watch a movie (I think it was Star Wars, Last Jedi ... good movie by the way) ... green, 1300 points of it.
You see that green line we have now ... some define it as the upper parallel of the descending channel we've been in for 2 MONTHS now!
Well, what if we were to cross it? Can we expect the same green candle?
There are a few scenarios in my mind, and here they are in order of my guess of highest probability:
- we have one more backtest ... maybe to 58XX and then we go up, either cross that green line or sideways until we do cross it, then we move up.
- we go super bear ... soon, like in the next couple of days, and reach between 5k and 5.4k ... then a bounce.
- we just sideways all for 8 or so days until we cross the green line.
ALL of these scenarios say a reversal is around the corner (as in 1 week from now). Obviously I could be wrong, but that's how I'm playing it.
I don't see this current situation as the bulls loosing, but the bears failing to bring it down further after have a long, long time to try.
My trade situation ... I have some coins that I have scalped (see my EOS Idea) ... and I will accumulate down in the 5k to 5.9k territory, with higher probability of a bottom resting between 5.7k and 5.9k ... below 5k, my idea is screwed ... but I'm prepared to take that risk. I'm anticipating a bounce to 65XX at some stage and will likely take profit there, and buy back immediately on the dip, and establish a tight stop.
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this information for investment/financial decisions. For educational purposes only.
Comment:
My guess at what's going to happen in the next few hours ...
Comment:
Bears are losing control my friends. We clearly broke down and out of the triangle ... and only 1 week ago, that would have gone straight to 6k ... bulls pulled it back into the triangle in minutes ... do not listen to what people ... look at what people (and the BTC price) does!
Comment:
To be clear ... I do expect a drop as per my chart above, but so far the bears have not impressed me. Right now, this is lowering the probability of BTC going below 5.7k. Nothing is certain, but we can take note of the price action and adjust our overall sentiment.
Comment:
Hey guys. Just got back from a business trip. In terms of the short term, this is the main possibilities I see. I suspect we are forming the red wave, as the market is mostly undecided and this is the better representation of a sideways market.