State of Everything - HTF Technicals and Econometrics (Oct '20)

In this analysis I'll be evaluating 12 different econometric and technical indicators to see if we can get a feel for BTC's direction over the coming days/weeks/months. This is part of a regular series that I post whenever a significant shift is apparent within a net total evaluation of these metrics.


Note - Some of these indicators are not widely known. At the bottom of this analysis I'll post references to educational articles that describe some of the more exotic indicators.

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PAGE 1 - Headline Photo (Shown Above):

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• Top left - Golden Ratio Multiplier (info in "resources" section below): The golden ratio multiplier has been one of the strongest indicators for spotting opportune buying/selling opportunities as well as key dynamic support and resistances. During the great 'rona selloff of 2020, we spiked down to the 2x 350SMA multiplier, the exact support that reversed the 2018/2019 selloff and launched us into 2019's bull run (and later ruined by the pandemic). We're just launched off 111 DMA, the moving average that is at the core of this indicator's functionality, after consolidating above for over a month. The fact that the 111DMA held as support and provide a launch point to above is overall, bullish.
  
• Top right - Guppy: I use the Guppy as a strong check for bias. Green - I am bullish , gray - neutral, red - bearish. We just flipped green, bullish. Note: check my scripts for this indicator with backtesting
  
• Bottom left - Log channel: BTC has spent almost its entire life between the white log channels. Taking this indicator alone, we are currently backtesting the channel support. Bearish.
  
• Bottom right - Ichimoku Cloud (1d) + significant EMAs + RSI: The current price is above both the Tenkan and Kijun and a green cloud. This is by-the-books bullish. Price is also above the 55 (yellow), 99 (blue) and 200 (red) EMA's. While the 99, my personal favorite, was challenged there, the price ultimately flipped it as support and used it as a launching point for this recent (albiet small) surge. Bullish.
  

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PAGE 2:

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• Top left - S&P500 Correlation: Unfortunately, this indicator says more than most at this time. Ever since the pandemic kicked off economic uncertainty, BTC's correlation with the S&P500 has felt unshakeable. The good news is that the SPY is bullish now as traders speculate over a new economic deal, but I can't help but feel bummed that crypto is still being dictated by the greater market with every move. Regardless, bullish.
  
• Top right - Futures premiums: The last few bull runs have been futures-driven rallies where both the quarterly (blue) and weekly (yellow) contracts have been trading at a premium over spot. Recently we had a period where weekly contracts were trading below, but quarterly was trading above - read as confusion in the market and high uncertainty. Good news - we now have both weeklies and quarterlies trading at a positive premium, which is bullish. I would like to the see the weekly premiums a little higher, but still, I'll take it. Bullish.
  
• Bottom left - Puell Mulitple (info in "resources" section): In short, this metric looks at the supply side of Bitcoin's economy - Bitcoin miners and their revenue. Specifically, BTC issuance to miners. When issuance is low, investors during that period historically have outsized returns. At this time issuance is in a slightly low phase, but not outstandingly abnormal. There is a lot of room to run upwards, but still some room downwards as well. We did however have a recent dip to a Puell of 0.55, which was very close to the ideal buy range, and quite a good buy opportunity in and of itself. Even now as we are around 0.85 Puell, we are quite low and indicates that hodlers (multi-year), should be quite fine to accumulate here while staying weary that better buying opportunities may present itself. For scale, 0.5 Puell and below is a near instant-buy for me. Net, neutral, slightly bullish.
  
• Bottom right - weekly cloud, 21 MA, RSI: There's a lot to look at here, let's start with cloud. The weekly cloud is still bullish with the price above both the Tenkan and Kijun and the bullish cloud twist. A cloud enthusiast would have seen the drop to $9.8 as a simple bullish retest of the weekly Tenkan and a good buy opportunity; which sure enough it was. The last thing I want to note with the weekly cloud is that I would like to see the Kijun have a bullish trend of its own, and close the gap between it and the Tenkan. While absolutely bullish overall, with the Kijun where it is, any bearish shifts may have a violent drop, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there - overall the weekly cloud is quite bullish. Next let's take a look at the 21MA on the weekly. Historically speaking, the 21MA has an almost magical effect for spotting good buy opportunities early or even mid-trend. Reading that alone, there is a beautiful confluence of the 21MA with the Tenkan, with the 21MA also indicating the drop to $9,800 as a good buy. Lastly, the weekly RSI is always an interesting one to watch. The 54 RSI value has played a significant role in past bull runs, where every test is bought up and fuels further continuation. While we've only tested it twice now both tests were successful and can only be read as possibly entering another run. I don't consider 2 to be a pattern, but a couple more successful tests would confirm and should make bulls quite happy, a breakdown should make bears happy. In total: Weekly Cloud bullish, 21MA bullish, RSI bullish (with hopes for further confirmation).
  

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PAGE 3:

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Note: With exception to Stock to Flow, this page mostly consists of long term indicators used to spot extremes where buying/selling is most profitable. There is little change from the last BTC State of Everything Address.

• Top left - 2y MA Multiplier: We are about 20% of the distance above the 2y MA support. The current price did just proceed a dip below, which historically has sprung a long term (multi-year) bull run. Long term, bullish . Near term, neutral/irrelevant.
  
• Top right - Stock to Flow: This crowd favorite needs no introduction, but info is in the "resources" section if needed. We're currently in the early stage of the orange phase of stock to flow, which has historically been a bullish period with lots of chop along a slow grind up. Yep, that feels about right doesn't it? The read here is that anything can happen on daily or even weekly timeframes. Traders of daily to weekly timeframes have little to get from this, longer term holders (months/years) should perceive as bullish. Near/mid term neutral, long term bullish.
  
• Bottom left - Pi Cycle (info in "resources" section): Fantastic for sniping tops, we can also glean some info about buy timing. Historically speaking, the Pi Cycle is bullish above the 111 DMA (pink), euphoric above the 2x350 DMA (green), and primed to sell when the 111 DMA crosses above the 2x350 DMA. Additionally, when bullish, buying dips to the 111 DMA support has proved profitable. However, the 111 DMA is also the core dependency of the Golden Ratio Multiplier from Page 1, so in this particular scenario should not yield additional weight when evaluating all the indicators as a whole. Bullish, but omitting from net-sum calculation (below).
  
• Bottom right - BTC Network Momentum (info in "resources" section): Our momentum is quite low. In fact, it hasn't been this low since 2015. That said, BTCNM does have clear supports, and we are teetering on one of the supports now. Neutral for now, but a break of that support would be a clear bearish sign.
  

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SUMMARY:

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• Golden ratio multiplier: bullish
  
• Guppy: bullish
  
• Log channel: bearish
  
• Daily cloud: bullish
  
• S&P500 Correlation: bullish (but not ideal)
  
• Futures premiums: slightly bullish
  
• Puell multiple: long term bullish, mid term neutral
  
• Weekly cloud: bullish
  
• Weekly 21MA: bullish
  
• Weekly RSI: bullish
  
• 2y MA Multiplier: long term bullish, short/mid term neutral
  
• Stock to flow: long term bullish , short/mid term neutral
  
• BTC network momentum: neutral
  

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CONCLUSION:

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Bullish - it's this kind of alignment of indicators that I like to see when determining bias. Right now the net sum of the indicator results are clearly bullish, and despite my feelings (I was leaning bearish previously), the data is clear. Putting my emotions aside and reading this for what it is, it's time to take the short shorts off and put on the long pants.

I hope you guys enjoyed this meta analysis of BTC! I have years of experience trading crypto, but am just now beginning to publish my ideas, secret-sauce scripts and handy tools. If you appreciated this post and would like to see more, a like or a follow would be greatly appreciated 😁.





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RESOURCES:

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To stay compliant with TradingView house rules, I am unable to post links to these educational articles directly, but I highly encourage you to google them and seek them out. I have taken steps to ensure these resources are purely educational in nature.

• Super Guppy TradingView Strategy: unable to link, but check my scripts for source. Includes backtesting, multiples settings, and different risk profiles.
  
• Golden Ratio Multiplier: "The Golden Ratio Multiplier" by PositiveCrypto
  
• Puell Multiple: "The Puell Multiple Bed" by Unconfiscatable
  
• Stock to Flow: "Modeling Bitcoins Value With Scarcity" by 100trillionUSD
  
• Pi Cycle: There's a good section on this near the bottom of the Golden Ratio Multiplier article.
  
• BTC Network Momentum: "Bitcoin Network Momentum" by Good Audience