Good morning, traders. Bitcoin broke out of the descending broadening wedge as expected and reached the pattern target. While this did take price above the descending dashed red resistance line, it wasn't able to hold and price has since bounced off the 15 minute R1 pivot while finding resistance at that dashed line once more. OBV on that short TF has moved up well since its low on 10/18, which is a positive sign. It shows demand by smart money. RSI is currently trending in a descending channel but appears to be working its way toward the channel's resistance. A breach of that resistance may indicate that price is about to move up. MACD remains bullishly above centerline and is curled up, indicating growing buyside strength. Gaps remain down to $6393.
The 4H TF shows the local TR. Yesterday, I mentioned that the move down may either be a SOW or ST, depending on the volume during the subsequent rally. We can clearly see that volume increased to near the volume highs of this TR suggesting that the dip down was an ST. This increases the likelihood that the current TR is re-accumulation rather than distribution, so my bias at this time is for a push up through the top of the TR rather than a drop below it, ultimately. That does not mean that we cannot see a shakeout before doing so, and as such traders should remain vigilant if choosing to continue to trade this range. RSI is bullish at 57.5 and is currently testing some resistance. MACD has crossed bullishly over, both, the signal line and centerline as it continues to pull away. OBV has broken through the descending wedge's resistance as I suggested it was likely to do yesterday. My expectation at this time is to see price continue to push up toward the top of the blue local TR, and slightly above to around $6540. At that point, we will either see price continuing up toward the larger black TR resistance at $6586 or down to the bottom of the blue local TR for a shakeout before heading up and out. If it does head up to $6586, then odds are significantly increased that we will see it target the zone between the blue resistance line at $6829 and the previous 4H R2 pivot at $6900 as outlined in red.
I continue to watch the 1D TR between $6095 and $6587. Once price moves through the resistance or support of this TR, I will evaluate the movement to decide whether I will enter at that time. Until then, all this little movement is nothing more than noise with a risk that is far too great in exchange for any reward for me.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
The 4H TF shows the local TR. Yesterday, I mentioned that the move down may either be a SOW or ST, depending on the volume during the subsequent rally. We can clearly see that volume increased to near the volume highs of this TR suggesting that the dip down was an ST. This increases the likelihood that the current TR is re-accumulation rather than distribution, so my bias at this time is for a push up through the top of the TR rather than a drop below it, ultimately. That does not mean that we cannot see a shakeout before doing so, and as such traders should remain vigilant if choosing to continue to trade this range. RSI is bullish at 57.5 and is currently testing some resistance. MACD has crossed bullishly over, both, the signal line and centerline as it continues to pull away. OBV has broken through the descending wedge's resistance as I suggested it was likely to do yesterday. My expectation at this time is to see price continue to push up toward the top of the blue local TR, and slightly above to around $6540. At that point, we will either see price continuing up toward the larger black TR resistance at $6586 or down to the bottom of the blue local TR for a shakeout before heading up and out. If it does head up to $6586, then odds are significantly increased that we will see it target the zone between the blue resistance line at $6829 and the previous 4H R2 pivot at $6900 as outlined in red.
I continue to watch the 1D TR between $6095 and $6587. Once price moves through the resistance or support of this TR, I will evaluate the movement to decide whether I will enter at that time. Until then, all this little movement is nothing more than noise with a risk that is far too great in exchange for any reward for me.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
Comment:
RSI is flirting with breaking out of its large triangle, MACD is pulling away bullishly, and OBV is tracking its own resistance line. I have been suggesting the possibility that we see price move sideways until the CME close this Friday, and it appears that is exactly what is happening. March and December Bitmex futures contracts were on the rise as of last night and shorts have dropped off quite a bit while longs have begun increasing their positions on Bitmex and Bitfinex.
