Bitcoin Analysis: Navigating Complexity and Price Targets

The complexity of the Bitcoin chart makes it a challenging subject for analysis, contrary to some claims of simplicity. We are considering two potential scenarios. Notably, we are not immediate proponents of the all-time high theory, given the critical level observed on the daily chart. Here, we entertain the alternative scenario that Wave (3) may have been completed, leading us into an ABC structure towards Wave (4), labeled as alt. (4). This scenario is invalidated if we surpass the $53,000 mark, or 138%, potentially moving into a range between $55,000 and $60,000 for Wave (3).

Reviewing the 4-hour chart, since our entry at Wave 4, we've witnessed a commendable 29% increase. We've adjusted our stop to $38,000 and now further into profit at $41,500, securing our gains and having already closed half of the trade to take profits. The chart suggests a ceiling at $60,000; breaching this seems improbable, setting our expected final level within the $55,000 to $60,000 range. Following this, we anticipate a correctional Wave (4), then a Wave (5) or Wave I, before embarking on a more extended downward correction, potentially revisiting around $35,000. However, this journey remains long and uncertain, and we'll continue to observe and adjust our strategy accordingly.

Comment:

In our last update, we raised the stop-loss for our trade to around the 45,500 mark, which, upon reflection, seems prudent. A significant drop, indicative of Wave (4), would likely bring us below our entry price. Hence, it would be illogical to maintain an open position, merely awaiting a break-even stop-out. However, should our analysis prove incorrect and the price continues to ascend, we'll gladly embrace the upward journey. We're also appreciative of Bitcoin for the favorable trade outcome, should a decline occur.

Currently, we're stalled at the 138% threshold, around $53,100, which we've yet to surpass. Until this level is breached, no adjustments will be made on our end, suggesting the alternate scenario marked by "Alt" in front of the respective waves might materialize. In this context, we're on the lookout for Wave (4) or entry opportunities therein. Theoretically, the $40,000 level, aligning with Wave A, shouldn't be correct, yet the $50,000 and particularly the 50% retracement level seems highly probable.

Nonetheless, we're not setting any firm entry points just yet, opting to see whether a downturn occurs or if we exceed the 138% level, completing what we primarily anticipate as Wave (3) at $60,000.

Comment:

Bitcoin has flipped the $53,000 level, which is highly positive on one hand but "negative" on the other, as we seem to be concluding our overarching wave (3), leading to a deeper pullback towards wave (4). However, we should still reach $60,000. We do not believe it will surpass this level, anticipating that it might be the peak, with a possibility of reversing sooner. Then, we should enter wave (4), followed by developing wave (5). This wave (5) should at least reach or surpass the level of wave (3); otherwise, it would be considered atypical behavior. Nonetheless, we are performing very well since our entry at $40,000 during the last pullback, about a month and a week ago, now over 40% in profit. We are quite satisfied with this result. ✅
We will now adjust the stop loss further up to $48,300 to continue capitalizing on upward movement if the anticipated pullback occurs, ensuring profits are secured.

Comment:

Currently, Bitcoin stands as the asset most prominently featured in the media, largely due to its tremendous ascent over the last month and a week since our entry at $40,000. Since then, its move has been nearly parabolic. However, we believe that we are nearing the conclusion of Bitcoin's surge. Wave (3) is anticipated to culminate soon. While it's possible to exceed the $65,700 mark, reaching the absolute maximum of $81,200, under current conditions, seems unrealistic. A pullback is expected before any new all-time highs are achieved, and there's still some time before this unfolds. Nonetheless, there remains considerable potential for further movement. As mentioned, our position has gained 56% since our entry, prompting us to adjust our stop-loss to $50,360. This adjustment is made in anticipation of an impending downturn, allowing us to secure profits and establish new positions accordingly.

We move our stop loss to $50,360

Trade active:

Bitcoin has exceeded all expectations and is leading the way, not as we had anticipated. We are only benefiting from this, as we are up 70% from our entry point, which greatly exceeds our expectations. However, we still believe that facing the all-time high will present significant challenges. If we do surpass it, we could potentially reach up to $81,000, but as mentioned before, we find this rather unlikely, although it seems nothing can be ruled out at this point. It means that while it's possible, we must remain realistic and not become greedy. We will wait to see the first sign of weakness in Bitcoin for the limit order at Wave (4). It doesn't make sense to send out limit orders now if we need to adjust them daily. We will keep our stop loss at $50,360 and wait to see how Bitcoin continues to develop. We remain optimistic that there's still room for upward movement before a significant correction occurs. The upcoming halving will also be interesting, but we don't assume it will be solely beneficial. We'll definitely see how it unfolds. Similarly, the ETF event was a sell the news occurrence, but it seems to have been quickly forgotten, and no one is paying much attention to it anymore.

Despite the uncertainties and market dynamics, our strategy remains to observe and react to Bitcoin's market behavior cautiously. We maintain our positions with a clear plan for both potential gains and to safeguard against unexpected downturns. The crypto market's volatility requires a balanced approach, ensuring we're prepared for various scenarios without succumbing to the euphoria of momentary spikes or the fear of sudden drops.