The 0.618 fibonacci level still working & BTC to $4,700?
Good afternoon,
Happy Easter to everyone in the cryptospace and to the people reading this new weekly update. Pretty boring week in trading land (Except for Binance Coin and BAT moving hard the past week) and volatility and volume is drained downwards. Not expecting next week to be the same boring level and expecting that we finally see some interesting action on the market.
I'm personally short on a few majors for a bit already (ETH, EOS & BAB) which are currently in profit, so that's great.
Let's summarize what we're seeing at this point.
- Still the 0.618 fib level is acting as resistance, which has been seen throughout the whole bearmarket. Combined with that I've marked the yellow boxes in which we can see that previous orderblocks are constantly acting as resistance. In that way a retest of $6,000 is not completely necessary.
- RSI on the daily is still incredibly high and might lose uptrend (not using this quite often, but it's interesting to stay in focus).
- BTC dominance broke out upwards and keeping the trendline. Currently running upwards to 53% already.
- Broke above the 200EMA on the Daily and still being there, something we've seen before.
- Volume is all along meh on the markets, that's typical for such a range. The market wants to see direction and a breakout to generate volume through stop/limits or limit buys.
- Weekly Stoch is still topped out -> The indicator is a big timeframe, however it starts to move downwards a bit. Something to keep an eye on. This indicator has to calm down quite soon, so retracement wouldn't be bad at all.
- Majors LTC, EOS, XRP, ETH all still show incredible long/shorts ratio's. Something like this we've seen in May (when BTC ran towards $10,000 and rejected it) and we've seen in November the moment we've lost the $6,000 support level. Especially for ETH and XRP this is crucial. If BTC drops another 5%, both XRP and ETH are going to lose some important trendlines and will continue trending downwards. Both these majors have not broken out of their main downtrendline yet.
- Still Ethereum is not showing much strength after the breakout above $160 and that's something to keep in mind.
The perspectives from my point of view are not much changed. I'm more bearish than bullish at this point, especially after the rejection earlier today and the movements downwards on altcoins. Altcoins have been frontrunning Bitcoin in the move upwards (don't forget, Litecoin started earlier and Bitcoin followed, the same with Cardano). These altcoins have retraced 25-40% (some of them) and are showing pretty much weakness all in all. Why is that? Well, people took profits on altcoins and now we're getting in the phase that people start to be scared regarding holding altcoins. So what do people do? They move towards Bitcoin for safety. Imagine what will happen when BTC decides to drop another $100 and the reaction on altcoins there. They can go to price discovery. So I don't like to be in alts with only BTC pairs at this point.
Bullish: I’d like to see some calmer movements on the market and a correction towards the 200MA. The key for future perspectives upwards is that we’re going to hold the 200 MA for the first time since the entire bearmarket. If we do a copy of the previous examples, then I think we’re going to find some new lows before upwards is granted. But, this is the bullish perspective, so we’ll look at that. For bullish perspective I’d like to see $4,700 area holding and the 200 MA acting as support. If we go upwards from there, I’m not expecting to see $6,000 as the final base for the movements, as that level is basically the key level everybody is watching. If we blast further upwards I’m expecting us blast through that level and the bullmarket to be started. I think this scenario is quite small in percentage to what could happen, but it’s one.
Bearish perspective: Still leaning that when we lose the $5,150 level a drop towards $4,700 can be granted. What we then likely will see is an increase in volume (either way, the volume will come whether it's upwards or downwards). In the bearish case I'd like to see one of the following scenario's:
- We drop towards $4,700, keep on hanging there and make a rising wedge towards maximum $5,000 for another lower high. The volume in this rising wedge is weak and further downwards movements are likely to be happening after. What to do then? I'm scalplonging the $4,700 area but mostly looking for shorts in the $5,000 region. A drop below the $4,700 level is going to be painful and most likely will make Bitcoin drop towards $4,200 as there's a big gap in between.
- We instantly lose the $4,700 level and drop down towards $4,200. This is less likely and in this case I'm expecting new lows to be happening.
Additional analysis: I’m also adding some thoughts regarding Ethereum and Ripple here. The problem is that when Bitcoin is going to retrace towards $4,700, then both Ethereum and Ripple will lose important levels. In the case of Ethereum it’s going to lose the $160 key resistance level we previously broke out and that will cause a ton of longs to get liquidated. Is that a good sign to the market? No. That’s a very bad sign, especially if that’s going to act as resistance back again. Therefore I’m still leaning majority bearish on the scenario’s at this point, however I really want to become bullish overall.
Overall I’d advice to be careful to everyone and take some profits when you can, the market has had a tremendous nice run in the end and you don’t want to blame yourself for partially taking profits.
Don't use the buy the dip approach and don't be overleveraged in ALTS/BTC pairs.
Happy Easter to everyone in the cryptospace and to the people reading this new weekly update. Pretty boring week in trading land (Except for Binance Coin and BAT moving hard the past week) and volatility and volume is drained downwards. Not expecting next week to be the same boring level and expecting that we finally see some interesting action on the market.
I'm personally short on a few majors for a bit already (ETH, EOS & BAB) which are currently in profit, so that's great.
Let's summarize what we're seeing at this point.
- Still the 0.618 fib level is acting as resistance, which has been seen throughout the whole bearmarket. Combined with that I've marked the yellow boxes in which we can see that previous orderblocks are constantly acting as resistance. In that way a retest of $6,000 is not completely necessary.
- RSI on the daily is still incredibly high and might lose uptrend (not using this quite often, but it's interesting to stay in focus).
- BTC dominance broke out upwards and keeping the trendline. Currently running upwards to 53% already.
- Broke above the 200EMA on the Daily and still being there, something we've seen before.
- Volume is all along meh on the markets, that's typical for such a range. The market wants to see direction and a breakout to generate volume through stop/limits or limit buys.
- Weekly Stoch is still topped out -> The indicator is a big timeframe, however it starts to move downwards a bit. Something to keep an eye on. This indicator has to calm down quite soon, so retracement wouldn't be bad at all.
- Majors LTC, EOS, XRP, ETH all still show incredible long/shorts ratio's. Something like this we've seen in May (when BTC ran towards $10,000 and rejected it) and we've seen in November the moment we've lost the $6,000 support level. Especially for ETH and XRP this is crucial. If BTC drops another 5%, both XRP and ETH are going to lose some important trendlines and will continue trending downwards. Both these majors have not broken out of their main downtrendline yet.
- Still Ethereum is not showing much strength after the breakout above $160 and that's something to keep in mind.
The perspectives from my point of view are not much changed. I'm more bearish than bullish at this point, especially after the rejection earlier today and the movements downwards on altcoins. Altcoins have been frontrunning Bitcoin in the move upwards (don't forget, Litecoin started earlier and Bitcoin followed, the same with Cardano). These altcoins have retraced 25-40% (some of them) and are showing pretty much weakness all in all. Why is that? Well, people took profits on altcoins and now we're getting in the phase that people start to be scared regarding holding altcoins. So what do people do? They move towards Bitcoin for safety. Imagine what will happen when BTC decides to drop another $100 and the reaction on altcoins there. They can go to price discovery. So I don't like to be in alts with only BTC pairs at this point.
Bullish: I’d like to see some calmer movements on the market and a correction towards the 200MA. The key for future perspectives upwards is that we’re going to hold the 200 MA for the first time since the entire bearmarket. If we do a copy of the previous examples, then I think we’re going to find some new lows before upwards is granted. But, this is the bullish perspective, so we’ll look at that. For bullish perspective I’d like to see $4,700 area holding and the 200 MA acting as support. If we go upwards from there, I’m not expecting to see $6,000 as the final base for the movements, as that level is basically the key level everybody is watching. If we blast further upwards I’m expecting us blast through that level and the bullmarket to be started. I think this scenario is quite small in percentage to what could happen, but it’s one.
Bearish perspective: Still leaning that when we lose the $5,150 level a drop towards $4,700 can be granted. What we then likely will see is an increase in volume (either way, the volume will come whether it's upwards or downwards). In the bearish case I'd like to see one of the following scenario's:
- We drop towards $4,700, keep on hanging there and make a rising wedge towards maximum $5,000 for another lower high. The volume in this rising wedge is weak and further downwards movements are likely to be happening after. What to do then? I'm scalplonging the $4,700 area but mostly looking for shorts in the $5,000 region. A drop below the $4,700 level is going to be painful and most likely will make Bitcoin drop towards $4,200 as there's a big gap in between.
- We instantly lose the $4,700 level and drop down towards $4,200. This is less likely and in this case I'm expecting new lows to be happening.
Additional analysis: I’m also adding some thoughts regarding Ethereum and Ripple here. The problem is that when Bitcoin is going to retrace towards $4,700, then both Ethereum and Ripple will lose important levels. In the case of Ethereum it’s going to lose the $160 key resistance level we previously broke out and that will cause a ton of longs to get liquidated. Is that a good sign to the market? No. That’s a very bad sign, especially if that’s going to act as resistance back again. Therefore I’m still leaning majority bearish on the scenario’s at this point, however I really want to become bullish overall.
Overall I’d advice to be careful to everyone and take some profits when you can, the market has had a tremendous nice run in the end and you don’t want to blame yourself for partially taking profits.
Don't use the buy the dip approach and don't be overleveraged in ALTS/BTC pairs.