BillCharison

BTC - Full Alanysis of The Situation

Long
COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
The previous BTC idea worked out perfectly: the market pumped from $5200 to $5650 and faced the resistence there. If we look at the market globally, we can notice that the price fixed above the previous highest level, which tells us about strong bullish mood. That's why the price keeps above $5500 and doesn't go back. On the other hand, today for the very long time we have more SHORT positions than LONG ones, on Bitfinex exchange (However, the LONG/SHORT ratio is still 50/50). Taking into account all these facts, we can make a conclusion that we can expect at least a return to the zone where the pump started. There we will be able to think about BTC further movements.

  • First option: the price moves to the $5650 level and fixes below one, then trade in the lower zone at ±$5600. This option will lead us to lower prices, because bulls won't be able to break $5650 resistance. Also we can suggest that there will be a fake breakout of $5650 which will also be a signal for sell.

  • Second option: the price breaks throught the $5650 resistance and takes hold above one in the area $5660 - $5680, which will increase support's powers and give enough strenght for the next pump to $5850.

  • Third option: the most unlikely one. If we drop to the $5440 zone from the current prices, we can consider that this pump was a fake breakout to liquidate SHORT positions and go even lower. The approximate trajectory of such movement was described by dotted thin lines.


Summing up, we can draw the following conclusions:
You can open a small LONG in order to catch an upward movement to $5850. Anyway, you will be able to close this position in profit. However, do not neglect the third option, it has its rights for existence, so you need to be careful, as usual. After another upward wave (rather it will be $5650 or $5850), we can start thinking about opening a SHORT position.

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