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1 day: < $5,750 | 1 week: bounce from $4,975 | 1 month predictions: < $5,000 by 9/5
Previous analysis/position: “If you were not expecting this sell off today then it is time to take a deep breath and make some decisions. I firmly believe that this is only the beginning, especially in regards to the alts.” / Short ETH:USD | ETH:BTC | BCH:BTC | ADA:BTC
Patterns: Descending triangle | 1h bear flag
Horizontal support and resistance: S = $5,864 | R = $6,182
BTCUSDSHORTS: Broke through major resistance
Funding Rates: longs receive 0.1328%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -8.34% | 26 = -12.53%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -12.96% | 128 = -20.26%
Volume: Starting to pick up with sell off, still hasn’t made local high
FIB’s: 0.382 = $5,278 | 0.5 = $5,940
Candlestick analysis: 4 hr inverted hammer
Ichimoku Cloud: Finally got the bearish TK’ Cross that we’ve been waiting for.
TD’ Sequential: $6,421 TDST held as resistance | R-2 < R-2 following a 4 day correction
Visible Range: Just fell below point of control (POC) from the past 24 hours at $6,016. Low volume nodes below $6,000
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +/- 0 | 24h = -4.88% | 1w = -10.86% | 2w = -21.15% | 1m = -2.84%
Bollinger Bands: Looks like bulge is starting on daily.
Trendline: Connects 7/31 and 8/7
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: Down at $6,005 just broke. Will finally create a new up fractal at $6,551 after today’s candle closes. This will allow stops to be moved down.
On Balance Volume: Broke down 2018 support
ADX: ADX starting to angle upward after supporting 25
Chaikin Money Flow: Broke down -0.176 support
RSI (30 setting): =40.55 and just broke down support
Stoch: Making bearish re cross below 20. I learned from @CryptoCore that crypto usually moves the strongest/fastest when oscillators get stuck in overbought/oversold zones.
Summary: The BTCUSDSHORT chart just entered extreme over bought zones and is going for a re test of the all time high.
Combined with the funding rates being abnormally high (longs receive 0.1328%) is a strong indication that we should get a squeeze sooner rather than later. However, the bearish momentum is picking up and people are starting to panic as new lows are made.
Watch for us to take out the low at $5,750 then spend < 6 hours at those price levels before a face melting short squeeze takes the price back to $7,000 - $7,200. The potential of a short squeeze is a great reason why I am not short Bitcoin. If BTC gets a strong squeeze it should cause the alts to sell off even harder vs their BTC ratio.
You will know that this isn’t going to happen if the selling volume creates a new local high after we take out $5,750. If that happens then we should fall straight to $4,950 in < 6 hours. If I was not in a position I would be strongly considering sell the breakdown of $5,75 in combination with the red 2 below a red 1 on the daily - however due to the chances of a short squeeze I would pass and hope to sell the dead cat bounce.
1 day: < $5,750 | 1 week: bounce from $4,975 | 1 month predictions: < $5,000 by 9/5
Previous analysis/position: “If you were not expecting this sell off today then it is time to take a deep breath and make some decisions. I firmly believe that this is only the beginning, especially in regards to the alts.” / Short ETH:USD | ETH:BTC | BCH:BTC | ADA:BTC
Patterns: Descending triangle | 1h bear flag
Horizontal support and resistance: S = $5,864 | R = $6,182
BTCUSDSHORTS: Broke through major resistance
Funding Rates: longs receive 0.1328%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -8.34% | 26 = -12.53%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -12.96% | 128 = -20.26%
Volume: Starting to pick up with sell off, still hasn’t made local high
FIB’s: 0.382 = $5,278 | 0.5 = $5,940
Candlestick analysis: 4 hr inverted hammer
Ichimoku Cloud: Finally got the bearish TK’ Cross that we’ve been waiting for.
TD’ Sequential: $6,421 TDST held as resistance | R-2 < R-2 following a 4 day correction
Visible Range: Just fell below point of control (POC) from the past 24 hours at $6,016. Low volume nodes below $6,000
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +/- 0 | 24h = -4.88% | 1w = -10.86% | 2w = -21.15% | 1m = -2.84%
Bollinger Bands: Looks like bulge is starting on daily.
Trendline: Connects 7/31 and 8/7
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: Down at $6,005 just broke. Will finally create a new up fractal at $6,551 after today’s candle closes. This will allow stops to be moved down.
On Balance Volume: Broke down 2018 support
ADX: ADX starting to angle upward after supporting 25
Chaikin Money Flow: Broke down -0.176 support
RSI (30 setting): =40.55 and just broke down support
Stoch: Making bearish re cross below 20. I learned from @CryptoCore that crypto usually moves the strongest/fastest when oscillators get stuck in overbought/oversold zones.
Summary: The BTCUSDSHORT chart just entered extreme over bought zones and is going for a re test of the all time high.
Combined with the funding rates being abnormally high (longs receive 0.1328%) is a strong indication that we should get a squeeze sooner rather than later. However, the bearish momentum is picking up and people are starting to panic as new lows are made.
Watch for us to take out the low at $5,750 then spend < 6 hours at those price levels before a face melting short squeeze takes the price back to $7,000 - $7,200. The potential of a short squeeze is a great reason why I am not short Bitcoin. If BTC gets a strong squeeze it should cause the alts to sell off even harder vs their BTC ratio.
You will know that this isn’t going to happen if the selling volume creates a new local high after we take out $5,750. If that happens then we should fall straight to $4,950 in < 6 hours. If I was not in a position I would be strongly considering sell the breakdown of $5,75 in combination with the red 2 below a red 1 on the daily - however due to the chances of a short squeeze I would pass and hope to sell the dead cat bounce.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/