Hi,
As I predicted on my 14. January idea post, the ~$9,000 was strong resistance and the price fell pretty sharply. The price action drew a bit too powerful Evening Star to make a "short" entry afterward but good for them who managed to take a risky sell (without a candlestick confirmation).
Actually, I don't like this too-powerful-4H-candle because usually, price want's to fill those clean pushes before it falls again but hopefully, the Bitcoin price want's to fill it after the mentioned trendline retest.
After the 19. Jan. push downwards from $9,200, the price has been stable and small moves upwards have found resistance from the Fibonacci retracement level 38%. This 38% resistance works perfectly if the movement is full of momentum and at the moment looks like the price action offers it - we have the Evening Star, we have the momentum.
To be said, my eyes are ONLY pointed to the green area, a possible buying area. To me, this is the only high-probability trading area, I don't want to trade those shown red arrows, break below the minor blue dotted trendline. It is weak and it gives just a small confirmation that the price may finally reach the possible buying area. The minor trendline break should be taken as an alert: "Possibly, we start to heading into the green box."
To be even more specific, the buying area is active until the price hasn't reached above the 9k and it has to fall within a few days (max 3).
The buying area $8,000 - $8,300 consists of:
1) The trendline retest! The trendline is pulled from 2019 high, last week the price made a breakout and there is a high chance that this trendline works perfectly as a support level.
2) The orange strong horizontal area. It has several historical rejections plus only strong and powerful candles have managed to make a breakthrough.
3) 3x Fibonacci retracement levels should act as support levels. 2x 38% and 1x 62%, pulled from different waves since the bottom of 2019 December.
4) 4H EMA 100&200 are around the marked buying area to add strength to the support level.
5) Daily EMA's are lined up perfectly to work as strong support - EMA50,100,200 are nicely inside and around the green box!
6) If the price reaches as low as $8,000, then it should act also as a support level.
7) Wait for a smaller timeframe rejection from the green box and as always, wait for a bullish candlestick pattern formation on 1H+timeframes to get more secure trade.
Do your own research and please, take a second and support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only FEE from You!
Regards,
Vaido
As I predicted on my 14. January idea post, the ~$9,000 was strong resistance and the price fell pretty sharply. The price action drew a bit too powerful Evening Star to make a "short" entry afterward but good for them who managed to take a risky sell (without a candlestick confirmation).
Actually, I don't like this too-powerful-4H-candle because usually, price want's to fill those clean pushes before it falls again but hopefully, the Bitcoin price want's to fill it after the mentioned trendline retest.
After the 19. Jan. push downwards from $9,200, the price has been stable and small moves upwards have found resistance from the Fibonacci retracement level 38%. This 38% resistance works perfectly if the movement is full of momentum and at the moment looks like the price action offers it - we have the Evening Star, we have the momentum.
To be said, my eyes are ONLY pointed to the green area, a possible buying area. To me, this is the only high-probability trading area, I don't want to trade those shown red arrows, break below the minor blue dotted trendline. It is weak and it gives just a small confirmation that the price may finally reach the possible buying area. The minor trendline break should be taken as an alert: "Possibly, we start to heading into the green box."
To be even more specific, the buying area is active until the price hasn't reached above the 9k and it has to fall within a few days (max 3).
The buying area $8,000 - $8,300 consists of:
1) The trendline retest! The trendline is pulled from 2019 high, last week the price made a breakout and there is a high chance that this trendline works perfectly as a support level.
2) The orange strong horizontal area. It has several historical rejections plus only strong and powerful candles have managed to make a breakthrough.
3) 3x Fibonacci retracement levels should act as support levels. 2x 38% and 1x 62%, pulled from different waves since the bottom of 2019 December.
4) 4H EMA 100&200 are around the marked buying area to add strength to the support level.
5) Daily EMA's are lined up perfectly to work as strong support - EMA50,100,200 are nicely inside and around the green box!
6) If the price reaches as low as $8,000, then it should act also as a support level.
7) Wait for a smaller timeframe rejection from the green box and as always, wait for a bullish candlestick pattern formation on 1H+timeframes to get more secure trade.
Do your own research and please, take a second and support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only FEE from You!
Regards,
Vaido
Comment:
NEW BTC analysis:
Regards!
Trade closed: target reached:
Didn’t got that trendline retest but again, the “ buy-window” was correct and the strong horizontal level worked nicely!
I have tightened that green area and the strongest support level should stay between $8,000-$8,100: