Straight out the gate - I don't believe that Bitcoin will ever cost cheaper than $2000. There are no manipulation schemes that can lead to such a dump. It means that those people who bought $BTC when it was below the $3000, will never be able to sell one in a break-even zone or much less in a loss. According to volumes which entered Bitcoin that time, we can confidently say that rich people knew this fact and went all-in.
History repeats - every crypto-trader knows this. We will build the analysis on this rule. I've mentioned up-trend periods with blue colour, as you could mentioned, there are always 164 bars and 1148 days. Why did I mention exactly this period? Because from the beginning of the global ascending support to one's breaking have passed 1148 days. It has happened already two times before. However, it is not all, at all. I've mentioned a lot of factors allowed me an opportunity to predict where the next up-trend will find its beginning and its end. Let consider all of them.
- 1. First of all, there is a death cross (MA100 - MA50) above the support. We can see it as in April 2015, as in February 2018.
- 2. Secondly, the price jumps from the MA200.
- 3. Thirdly, the M50 acts as a resistance and when the price touches one, is located at the same levels in both years.
Based on this data, I can assume that currently we are in the consolidation zone and it will last for 266 days (there are only 3-4 months left until the end). After the end of the consolidation phase, the price will form new ascending support. We will update local highest levels, correct to the zone of $5000-$6000 and form a new golden cross. The top point of the new uptrend will be located at the $70000 - $100000 and will be reached by the end of 2021.
Thus, we can expect a flat in the range of $4000-$6000 in the next couple of month.
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- This is the first test. It needs two or three times to test to break this resistance.
- Low volume with higher price
- We're seeing bearish divergences in the RSI , the MACD , Stochastics, Volume , ...
- Strong support at 5380$
Please take a look at our idea and let us know what you think!